Deal Between Greek Creditors Doesn't End Saga
25 Maio 2016 - 2:36PM
Dow Jones News
By Marcus Walker in Athens and Gabriele Steinhauser in Brussels
A truce between Greece's creditors averts an immediate panic
over Greek bankruptcy this summer, yet as officials and onlookers
digested the deal, it became apparent that less was agreed than
meets the eye.
The deal, struck in the small hours of Wednesday morning at the
Eurogroup meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Brussels, broke
an impasse between Germany and the International Monetary Fund that
was holding up Greece's bailout funding for this summer.
But by papering over deeper differences, the deal sets up tough
haggling over the country's debt and economic overhauls for this
fall and beyond.
The main breakthrough, heralded by German Finance Minister
Wolfgang Schäuble, is that the IMF agreed in principle to rejoin
the Greek bailout effort this year with new loans. In return,
Germany and other eurozone countries pledged to restructure
Greece's rescue loans in 2018 "if...needed." That promise fell
short of the IMF's demand that Europe should decide now how it
would relieve Greece's debt in coming years.
But the IMF's main negotiator at the talks, European department
head Poul Thomsen, stressed at a news conference early Wednesday
that the fund isn't on board just yet. The eurozone still needs to
tell the IMF what it is prepared to do in 2018, consenting to a
menu of debt-relief measures for later use, he suggested. "We will
need to assess the adequacy of the measures, and we will only go
ahead if there is an assessment that they are adequate."
Mr. Schäuble on Wednesday dismissed Mr. Thomsen's caveats,
insisting that new IMF loans were now assured. "He probably was
tired then," Mr. Schäuble told reporters.
However, IMF officials continued to emphasize throughout
Wednesday that they haven't made a final decision to lend yet.
That implies difficult talks in coming months. The IMF is
expected to test, for example, whether eurozone governments are
willing to fix Greece's interest payments at such a low level that
the bloc's main bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism,
would need subsidies from national Treasurys to cover its
costs.
Such disputes over detail could yet hold up the IMF's return to
Greek lending, pushing the final decision close to Germany's
election year of 2017. As those elections loom closer, German
Chancellor Angela Merkel will be reluctant to anger her
conservative lawmakers and voters by specifying how much money her
country will eventually lose on its loans to Greece, officials in
Berlin and elsewhere say.
German officials are confident that the IMF ultimately can't
back out, since the fund answers to its controlling shareholders,
the EU and the U.S. But the IMF can delay its consent to lend in a
quest to make Germany's concessions as concrete as possible, Mr.
Thomsen's words suggest.
For now, though, Ms. Merkel has what she needed: a statement of
IMF intent rejoin the Greek bailout, lending the IMF's credibility
to the effort, which was what Ms. Merkel's restless lawmakers
wanted to hear before disbursing any more European money to
Athens.
Mr. Schäuble's late-night deal with Mr. Thomsen in Brussels also
met Germany's other short-term goals: to delay any final decisions
on debt relief until the end of the bailout program, avoiding
awkward debates in the German parliament until after next year's
elections; and to get the Greek problem off the agenda by June.
Behind the scenes in recent weeks, Ms. Merkel has pressed hard
for a solution that secures IMF involvement, releases Greek
funding, and postpones debt decisions, for fear that the Greek
crisis could erupt again at a time when the European Union is
looking more politically fragile than ever before.
The U.K.'s June 23 referendum on whether to leave the EU, the
continentwide political fallout from the migration crisis, and the
surge in voter support for anti-EU populist parties are all testing
the bloc's cohesion.
The U.S. government, worried about the EU's stability, has also
lobbied Europe and the IMF in recent weeks to remove the
uncertainty over Greece quickly.
Mr. Thomsen on Wednesday hailed the IMF's main gain: a promise
by German-led eurozone creditors to undertake a far-reaching
restructuring of Greek debt in 2018. "We welcome that it is now
recognized by all stakeholders that Greek debt is unsustainable,
and...that Greece will need debt relief to make that debt
sustainable," he said.
However, Germany previously promised the IMF and Greece in 2012
that it would offer debt relief later if needed -- only to reject
such a move afterward, citing Greece's failure to implement all of
its promised economic overhauls.
The latest debt promise hinges once again on Greece's ability to
complete its side of a tough bailout plan that has proved beyond
the political stamina of all Athens governments so far.
--Ian Talley in Washington and Viktoria Dendrinou in Brussels
contributed to this article.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 25, 2016 13:21 ET (17:21 GMT)
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