(Updates with sales outlook from Edmunds.com)
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
U.S. new-vehicle sales are expected to rise in November from a year earlier, adjusted for two fewer sales days this year, said Edmunds.com and J.D. Power and Associates as the industry continues to show some healthier signs.
The news follows some pleasant earnings surprises recently from auto makers. Ford Motor Co. (F) and Toyota Motor Corp. (TM, 7203.TO) posted profits in the third quarter and boosted their outlook. The auto industry has been one of the hardest hit in the recession.
When adjusted for the fewer selling days this year, Edmunds.com said November new car sales are seen rising 3.8% in the U.S. from a year ago. Without the adjustment for there being 23 selling days this year and 25 last year, the auto Web site's estimate is 4.5% below last year's sales and down 15% from October, which saw the strongest results in a year excluding gains from "cash for clunkers."
"November is living up to its reputation for being one of the worst months of the year for car sales," said Edmunds.com analyst Jessica Caldwell said. She noted auto makers have already launched holiday-season incentives, which could suggest to buyers that bigger discounts--albeit on smaller selection--may be available for those who hold off buying.
The overall annualized sales rate in November is projected to be 10.3 million, down slightly from October's 10.43 million rate.
Among individual companies, Chrysler Group LLC is again expected to post the largest year-on-year sales drop, a decline of 35% from levels recorded last November on an unadjusted basis. Hyundai Motor Co. (005380.SE, HYMLY) is expected to sell 26% more cars in November than it did a year earlier.
On a month-to-month basis, Nissan Motor Co. (7201.TO, NSANY) is seen posting the largest decline in unadjusted sales at 23%, while Ford is forecast to report the smallest decline, at 8.8% from October levels.
Earlier Thursday, J.D. Power & Associates projected slightly higher adjusted new-vehicle sales for November from a year earlier on strong fleet sales and economic stabilization, a signal the industry is "on the mend." It projected an adjusted increase of 0.4% for total U.S. new-vehicle sales, with retail falling 0.4% and fleet sales up 3.5%. Unadjusted, total sales would be down an estimated 7.7% to 687,800 units, putting its annualized sales-rate estimate at 10.2 million.
Jeff Schuster from J.D. Power cited the industry's increased discipline, which resulted in the highest sales prices in years. The firm also adjusted its forecast for 2009 slightly, decreasing retail sales to 8.5 million units from 8.6 million units.
J.D. Power is part of McGraw-Hill Cos. (MHP).
-By Joan E. Solsman, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2291; joan.solsman@dowjones.com