Visa Launches U.S. Spending Momentum Index—A New Way to Gauge the Economic Health of U.S. Consumers
12 Maio 2021 - 8:00AM
Business Wire
Visa’s April SMI reading indicates the recovery
is gaining strength
Visa (NYSE: V) today launched the Visa U.S. Spending Momentum
Index (SMI), an economic indicator designed to be a timely gauge of
the health of consumer spending. The Visa SMI delivers insight into
what drives upturns and downturns in spending by measuring the
breadth of the momentum supporting these trends.
“This past year underscores the importance of looking not only
at how much is being spent, but also how many consumers are
spending,” said Wayne Best, Visa’s Chief Economist. “What made the
most recent downturn and now recovery so different than any
previous business cycle was how the pandemic impacted the ability
as much as the willingness of consumers to spend. Understanding how
many consumers are feeling sufficiently confident and financially
secure to spend more is at the heart of what the Visa SMI
does.”
In April 2021, the Visa SMI hit 136.0, confirming that the U.S.
economic recovery remains on firm ground. At its current level, the
Visa SMI implies that 65 percent of consumers are now spending more
than they did a year ago, while only 35 percent are spending the
same or less. Even compared to April 2019, which was not affected
by the pandemic and lockdowns, 51 percent of consumers are spending
more. The SMI reached its lowest level in April 2020 at 70.5 and
did not pass 100 again until October, indicating that many people
were still unable to participate in the recovery for much of 2020.
While the downturn this time was deeper, the recovery has been six
months faster than the recession of 2008-2009.
“The SMI’s latest strong reading provides evidence that consumer
confidence is building as the pace of vaccinations increase and
restrictions are eased across the country,” added Wayne Best.
“Signs of economic recovery, additional stimulus payments and
optimism that the pandemic is waning are contributing to stronger
spending compared to last year and even within recent months."
The gains in spending momentum, however, remain uneven. The SMI
for cities that experienced the greatest job losses in April 2020
has been on average 1.5 points lower over the last year than cities
where job losses were more limited, indicating that fewer consumers
were able to join the recovery where joblessness was higher. The
SMI for Chicago, one of the hardest hit cities in terms of job
losses, has averaged 100.5 over the last 12 months, compared to a
city with fewer job losses such as Atlanta, where the SMI was 104.0
over the same time frame. The gap between the two has narrowed
within the last three months, helped in part by Chicago’s progress
in vaccinating a greater share of its residents.
Previously only available to Visa clients, Visa is now
publishing components of the SMI on a monthly basis for the general
public, in part to help track economic recovery progress. The SMI
builds on Visa’s commitment to powering commerce by providing tools
and insights to uplift people, businesses and economies
everywhere.
About the Visa SMI
The Visa SMI is based on a sample of aggregated, depersonalized
VisaNet data. Visa adjusts this data through proprietary methods to
exclude factors that do not reflect spending momentum. The
resulting sample data is then aggregated using a diffusion index
framework where index values are scored from 0 to 200. When the
Visa SMI rises above 100, the consumer spending momentum is
strengthening and when it falls below 100, the spending momentum is
weakening as fewer consumers are spending more relative to the
previous year. The index is adjusted for day of week, month,
holidays, and broad annual trends, and these seasonal adjustments
are subject to revision each year.
The Visa SMI does not take into account the volume of payments
nor does it rely on all Visa-branded credentials, and therefore
does not reflect Visa operational or financial performance. It is
intended for informational purposes only and is offered on an “as
is” basis without any warranties of any kind, express or implied.
Each SMI report is as of the publication date.
Eligible Visa clients in the U.S may access more detailed and
customized insights at the national, regional and local spending
level, including spending on the main categories of goods and
services.
For more information about the Visa U.S. Spending Momentum
Index, please visit
www.visa.com/partner-with-us/visa-consulting-analytics/spending-momentum-index.html
About Visa
Visa (NYSE: V) is the world’s leader in digital payments. Our
mission is to connect the world through the most innovative,
reliable and secure payment network - enabling individuals,
businesses and economies to thrive. Our advanced global processing
network, VisaNet, provides secure and reliable payments around the
world, and is capable of handling more than 65,000 transaction
messages a second. The company’s relentless focus on innovation is
a catalyst for the rapid growth of digital commerce on any device,
for everyone, everywhere. As the world moves from analog to
digital, Visa is applying our brand, products, people, network and
scale to reshape the future of commerce. For more information,
visit About Visa, visa.com/blog and @VisaNews.
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version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210512005129/en/
Visa Andy Gerlt press@visa.com
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