Barclays Research Expects a Series of Supply Shocks to Fan Inflationary Forces
23 Maio 2023 - 4:00AM
Business Wire
In the 2023 Equity Gilt Study, Barclays
Research Analysts Take Stock of Recent Shifts in Climate, Labour
Markets and Chip Manufacturing, and Examine the Implications for
Growth and for Prices
In this year’s edition of our flagship annual publication,
Barclays Research analysts delve into several supply shocks the
world is likely to face in coming years and how they might impact
the global economy. Analysts find that on almost all fronts, the
world is likely looking at a more inflationary environment than in
the last three decades.
"The world economy is still changing at an incredible pace,"
says Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Global Chairman of Research. "Some changes
– such as the green transition – are coordinated and by design.
Some are driven by realpolitik or happenstance. But they have three
features in common: the shifts are structural, very likely to prove
inflationary and will last for years to come.”
The Green Transition
Barclays analysts argue that achieving carbon neutrality will
require an unprecedented transformation for the global economy. A
wholesale reallocation of resources is achievable, but the journey
will be bumpy, involving new taxes and tougher regulation. Studies
suggest that the transition will be inflationary initially and
could come at the cost of a small decline in GDP, before turning
deflationary over time.
Labour Shortages
Changes in working practices during the pandemic raised
questions over whether tight labour markets would become a
recurring feature of the macro landscape. Barclays analysts argue
that the supply of labour is likely to remain limited, as working
populations grow older and as societies resist reforms that might
help to alleviate pressures, such as raising pensionable ages, or
lifting curbs on immigration.
Food Security
Growth in population requires smart use of scarce resources to
feed ourselves and future generations. Yet extreme weather events
are becoming more frequent and more severe, posing real threats to
agribusiness and to infrastructure. Barclays analysts point out
that technological breakthroughs, such as vertical farming and gene
editing, are vital, in order to boost crop yields and quality.
Global Chip Manufacturing
The battle for technological supremacy between the West and
China has the potential to disrupt the complex and globalized chip
manufacturing supply chain. Barclays analysts expect any shifts to
be gradual as Taiwan’s dominance in advanced semiconductors, and
China’s cost advantage make abrupt and radical moves unlikely.
>>> Clients can gain access to the full Equity Gilt
Study report on Barclays Live >>>To learn more about our
Research offering and view recent insights, click here
Notes to editors:
Barclays Equity Gilt Study is a flagship annual publication that
combines market-leading macro analysis with a unique multi-asset
dataset spanning over 100 years. It provides uniquely rich data and
commentary on long-term asset returns in the UK and US. Data for
the UK goes back to 1899, while the US data, provided by the Center
for Research in Security Prices at the University of Chicago, runs
from 1925.
About Barclays Corporate and Investment Bank
Barclays Corporate and Investment Bank is comprised of the
Investment Banking, International Corporate Banking, Global Markets
and Research businesses. It provides money managers, financial
institutions, governments, supranational organisations and
corporate clients with services and advice for their funding,
financing, strategic and risk management needs. For further
information about Barclays Corporate and Investment Bank, please
visit our website www.cib.barclays.
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Claudia Gilbert Allen +44 207 773 2064
Claudia.gilbertallen@barclays.com
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