BTCUSD Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC) price has been oscillating inside the $82,400-85,300 range since March 14 as breakouts in both directions have been short-lived, as shown below.

BTC/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

Key factors behind Bitcoin’s flat price action include:

• Unpredictable US economic policies.

• Lack of fresh capital entering the market.

• Technical setups.

Trade war fears offset pro-Bitcoin news

Bitcoin’s price is stuck as bullish and bearish headlines are clashing, creating bias conflicts that keep traders guessing and BTC range-bound.

The bullish signals:

• On March 19, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% and announced a slower pace of balance sheet runoff, signaling looser policy ahead.

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell used the word “transitory” to describe tariff-driven inflation, striking a dovish tone that briefly lifted market sentiment.

• President Donald Trump declared the US the "undisputed Bitcoin superpower" and is pushing for pro-crypto policies, including stablecoin legislation.

• MicroStrategy continues to lead institutional demand, adding 130 BTC for $10.7M million, bringing its total to 499,226 BTC.

• Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed selling US gold reserves to acquire 1 million BTC over five years—a bold sign of shifting attitudes toward Bitcoin as a strategic asset.

The bearish signals:

• Despite Powell’s dovish tone, the Fed raised its 2025 inflation forecast to 2.8% from 2.5% and cut GDP growth expectations to 1.7% from 2.1%, suggesting stagflation risks are on the rise.

• Bitcoin’s post-FOMC breakout was short-lived, with the price quickly falling back into a narrow trading range—signaling a lack of conviction.

BTC/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

• Ongoing trade tensions and tariff uncertainty continue to hang over markets, with no clear resolution in sight.

• A European Central Bank official warned that Trump’s pro-crypto stance could trigger a global financial crisis.

In short, macroeconomic caution and geopolitical noise offset the bullish catalysts. Until one side decisively breaks through, Bitcoin’s price is likely to remain in limbo.

Shrinking liquidity stagnates Bitcoin market

A contraction in liquidity, declining speculative activity, and fading capital inflows are further keeping BTC locked inside the $82,400-85,300 range.

What to know:

• The realized Cap is growing at just +0.67% per month, signaling weak capital inflows compared to 13.2% in December, according to Glassnode’s weekly on-chain report.

Bitcoin realized cap net position change. Source: Glassnode

• Hot Supply, which tracks coins held for a week or less (a proxy for short-term trader activity), has dropped over 50%, showing a sharp decline in short-term trading activity.

Related: ‘Bitcoin bull cycle is over,' CryptoQuant CEO warns, citing onchain metrics

Bitcoin Hot Supply chart. Source: Glassnode

• Exchange inflows have fallen from 58.6k BTC/day to 26.9k BTC/day, a 54% drop.

Bitcoin exchange inflow breakdown by cohort. Source: Glassnode

• These metrics show a decline in trade and speculation, indicating that the Bitcoin market is transitioning from a profit-driven phase to a neutral equilibrium.

• Lower liquidity and subdued sentiment are capping larger upside and downside moves.

BTC price trapped inside ascending triangle pattern

Bitcoin’s price remains stuck as technical barriers continue to cap both upside and downside momentum.

Key takeaways:

• Price is consolidating between a horizontal support-turned-resistance level and an ascending trendline support.

• The upper boundary acts as a strong ceiling.

BTC/USD 12-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

• The ascending trendline is providing consistent support, preventing a deeper pullback.

• Recent upside breakout attempts have failed, including a false breakout above the resistance trendline.

• This tightening structure reflects growing indecision, likely to resolve with a sharp move once either level breaks decisively.

The horizontal trendline resistance and the ascending trendline support are painting an ascending triangle.

What to know:

• An ascending triangle is considered a bullish reversal pattern when forming in a downtrend.

• As a rule, it typically resolves when the price breaks above the upper trendline and rises by as much as the triangle’s maximum height.

BTC/USD 12-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

• This brings its upside target for April to around $91,965.

• Conversely, a breakdown below the lower trendline could intensify the selling pressure.

BTC/USD 12-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

• If it happens, Bitcoin’s price can decline to $77,635 by April.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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