OPUSD Optimism

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin futures open interest hit a record $72 billion, signaling rising use of leverage among institutional investors.

• $1.2 billion in shorts at $107,000 to $108,000 are at risk of liquidation, boosting BTC’s breakout odds.

The aggregate open interest in Bitcoin (BTC) futures surged to a record high on May 20, raising questions about whether bearish positions are now at risk. Despite repeated failures to break above the $107,000 level since May 18, the sheer volume of leveraged positions could propel Bitcoin to a new all-time high.

The total open interest in BTC futures climbed to $72 billion on May 20, marking an 8% increase from $66.6 billion just a week earlier. Institutional demand continues to be a major driver of this leverage, with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) leading at $16.9 billion in BTC futures, followed by Binance, which holds $12 billion in open interest.

$1.2 billion in bearish BTC liquidations cluster at $107K–$108K

According to CoinGlass estimates, the largest concentration of bearish BTC futures liquidations is clustered between $107,000 and $108,000, amounting to approximately $1.2 billion.

While it's impossible to predict what could spark a breakout above $108,000 to force those leveraged shorts to unwind, there is growing optimism tied to rising concerns over United States fiscal debt. Uncertainty remains about how the government plans to achieve economic growth while reducing spending, especially in light of ongoing disagreement between Democratic and Republican lawmakers.

More importantly, yields on the 20-year US Treasury remain close to 5%, up from 4.82% two weeks earlier. Weak demand for long-term government debt may compel the US Federal Reserve to step in as the buyer of last resort to maintain market stability, reversing a 26-month trend. This approach puts downward pressure on the US dollar and drives investors to seek alternative hedging strategies, including Bitcoin.

Gold dominates, but Bitcoin absorbs flow amid reserve reallocations

Gold remains the dominant alternative asset, but its 24% year-to-date gains in 2025 and $22 trillion market capitalization make it less attractive to many investors. For context, the entire S&P 500 index is valued at $53 trillion, while US bank deposits and Treasury bills (M1) amount to $18.6 trillion. In contrast, Bitcoin currently represents a $2.1 trillion asset class, roughly equivalent in size to silver.

Meanwhile, some regions, notably the US, have begun laying the groundwork to shift portions of their gold reserves into Bitcoin—an action that could easily propel BTC to a new all-time high. A modest 5% reallocation from gold into Bitcoin by those nations would translate into a $105 billion inflow, equivalent to 1 million BTC at a price of $105,000. 

Related: Bitcoin ready to ‘vaporize’ shorts once price discovery above $110K begins

For perspective, Strategy, the US-listed firm led by Michael Saylor, currently holds 576,230 BTC. There is little doubt that institutional buying remains the primary catalyst for Bitcoin to break above the $108,000 level. Such a move would trigger the liquidation of heavily leveraged bearish positions, likely accelerating the push to a new all-time high. However, persistent macroeconomic uncertainty continues to weigh on overall investor sentiment.

As Bitcoin flirts with the $107,000 mark, those holding short positions face heightened risk of forced liquidations—an outcome that could further fuel upward momentum in price.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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