German Economic Institutes Expect 4.2% Contraction in 2020 GDP
08 Abril 2020 - 5:39AM
Dow Jones News
By Maria Martinez
The German economy is expected to contract 4.2% in 2020 due to
the coronavirus pandemic and its related containment measures,
according to the spring report of leading economics research
institutes in Germany.
Gross domestic product is likely to have shrunk 1.9% in the
first quarter and is expected to contract 9.8% in 2Q due to the
lockdown, being the sharpest decline ever recorded in Germany since
quarterly national accounts began in 1970, the report said.
The contraction expected in 2Q is more than twice as steep as
the decline during the global financial crisis in the first quarter
of 2009, the German institutes said.
"The recession is leaving very clear marks on the labor market
and the government budget," Timo Wollmershaeuser, head of forecasts
at the Ifo institute, said.
At its peak, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.9%
this year and the number of short-time workers will swell to 2.4
million, the report says. On average, the unemployment figures will
rise by 250,000 to 2.5 million year-on-year.
"Germany is in a good position to cope with the economic slump
and to return in the medium term to the economic level that it
would have reached without the crisis," Mr. Wollmershaeuser
said.
A recovery is expected in 2021, when the German institutes
forecast the economy to grow 5.8%.
The downside risks associated with this forecast are
considerable, the German institutes warn, as the pandemic could
abate much more slowly than anticipated and efforts to restart the
economy might be less than successful and could trigger a new wave
of infections.
Write to Maria Martinez at maria.martinez@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 08, 2020 04:24 ET (08:24 GMT)
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