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The price of easy money – are the dominoes starting to
fall?
Since the financial crisis of 2008, markets were defined by
extraordinarily aggressive fiscal and monetary policy. As a result
of these policies, we’ve seen inflation move sharply higher to
levels not seen since the 1980s. To fight this inflation, the
Federal Reserve in the past year has raised rates nearly 500 basis
points. This is one price we’re already paying for years of easy
money – and was the first domino to drop.
Bond markets were down 15% last year, but it still seemed, as they
say in those old Western movies, “quiet, too quiet.” Something else
had to give as the fastest pace of rate hikes since the 1980s
exposed cracks in the financial system.
This past week we saw the biggest bank failure in more than 15
years as federal regulators seized Silicon Valley Bank. This is a
classic asset-liability mismatch. Two smaller banks failed in the
past week as well. It’s too early to know how widespread the damage
is. The regulatory response has so far been swift, and decisive
actions have helped stave off contagion risks. But markets remain
on edge. Will asset-liability mismatches be the second domino to
fall?
Prior tightening cycles have often led to spectacular financial
flameouts – whether it was the Savings and Loan Crisis that
unfolded throughout the eighties and early nineties or the
bankruptcy of Orange County, California, in 1994. In the case of
the S&L Crisis, it was a “slow rolling crisis” – one that just
kept going. It ultimately lasted about a decade and more than a
thousand thrifts went under.
We don’t know yet whether the consequences of easy money and
regulatory changes will cascade throughout the U.S. regional
banking sector (akin to the S&L Crisis) with more seizures and
shutdowns coming.
It does seem inevitable that some banks will now need to pull back
on lending to shore up their balance sheets, and we’re likely to
see stricter capital standards for banks.
Over the longer term, today’s banking crisis will place greater
importance on the role of capital markets. As banks potentially
become more constrained in their lending, or as their clients
awaken to these asset-liability mismatches, I anticipate they will
likely turn in greater numbers to the capital markets for
financing. And I imagine many corporate treasurers are thinking
today about having their bank deposits swept nightly to reduce even
overnight counterparty risk.
And, there could yet be a third domino to fall. In addition to
duration mismatches, we may now also see liquidity mismatches.
Years of lower rates had the effect of driving some asset owners to
increase their commitments to illiquid investments – trading lower
liquidity for higher returns. There’s a risk now of a liquidity
mismatch for these asset owners, especially those with leveraged
portfolios.
As inflation remains elevated, the Federal Reserve will stay
focused on fighting inflation and continue to raise rates. While
the financial system is clearly stronger than it was in 2008, the
monetary and fiscal tools available to policymakers and regulators
to address the current crisis are limited, especially with a
divided government in the United States.