Interest Rates and Inflation Likely to Drive S&P 500 Lower This Week!
10 Abril 2022 - 5:13PM
Finscreener.org
After gaining momentum in the
month of March, equity markets continued to trade in the red in the
first full week of April 2022. In the week ended on April 8, 2022,
the S&P 500 fell by 1.3% while indices such as the Nasdaq
Composite and Dow Jones also declined by 4% and 0.2%
respectively.
Inflation, interest rates, and bank earnings will drive
markets this week
In the upcoming week, investors
will be closely watching the inflation report for March and several
big bank earnings, which will mark the beginning of the earnings
season. Financial giants such as JPMorgan
Chase (NYSE:
JPM) and BlackRock
(NYSE: BLK) will
report Q1 earnings on Wednesday, followed by Goldman
Sachs (NYSE:
GS), Morgan Stanley
(NYSE: MS), Citigroup
(NYSE: C), and Wells Fargo
(NYSE:
WFC) on Thursday.
The ongoing war in Ukraine will
also remain in focus as Wall Street will follow any signs of new
development in the region.
In
an interview with
CNBC, the chief equity
strategist at LPL Financial, Quincy Krosby explained Q1 earnings
report from companies part of the banking and finance sector will
be critical to market participants given the Federal Reserve’s
hawkish policy with plans to increase interest rates multiple times
this year.
Krosby stated, “We want to get a
picture of how do they see the Fed’s plan... quantitative
tightening, the liquidity drain, coupled with higher rates,
affecting their clients and their business units. If you look at
the XLF [Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund
ETF], on days it goes up,
it’s the insurance companies because they’re raising premiums.
Higher rates are good for banks, until, the belief is, the higher
rates are going to hurt the economy.”
Additionally, the 10-year
Treasury yield rates increased for the third consecutive week by at
least 30 basis points and were around 2.7% on Friday. Interest
rates have an inverse relationship to bond prices and the former
moved higher in the last week as the Fed announced plans to trim
its balance sheet by $95 billion, including $60 billion in
Treasurys this month.
The Treasury yield is an
important financial benchmark as the rate impacts the pricing of
mortgages and other loans. Considering the generous uptick of the
10-year Treasury yield, there is a good chance for rates to move
higher going forward.
Economic data will be a catalyst for the S&P
500
In addition to interest rates and
earnings, economic data published in the upcoming week will be
another driver of the S&P 500. The four-day week will see
the consumer price report getting published on Tuesday. Economists
expect the CPI for March to top 7.9% which was reported for the
month of February.
The CPI will be an important data
point before the Fed meets again in May 2022. Even if the CPI is in
line with expectations, the Fed might increase rates by 50 basis
points. The central bank increased interest rates by 0.25% for the
first time after several years in March. The PPI or producer price
index report is slated to release on Wednesday, while retail sales
and consumer sentiment data are due on Thursday.
Investment bank Barclays expects
CPI to rise by 1.24% in March after rising 8.5% year over year. The
annual rate of CPI is estimated to peak in March and then trend
lower driven by a few positive base effects.
Earnings remain key
Data from Refinitiv suggests
S&P 500 earnings are forecast to rise by 6.1% year over year
in Q1. Comparatively, earnings for companies part of the financial
sector might decline by 22.9%.
In a nutshell, investors have to
wrestle with interest rates hike, balance sheet reductions, and
quantitative tightening measures in the near term.
So, it makes sense to increase
exposure to defensive stocks or companies part of sectors such as
consumer staples and healthcare, in addition to real estate
investment trusts.
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