Edison issues outlook on Probiodrug (PBD)
01 Novembro 2018 - 7:05AM
We believe one of the main reasons for the devaluation of
Probiodrug’s (PBD) shares over the past year was the largely
disappointing industry newsflow frustrating research on Abeta
theory, even though Probiodrug’s technology is differentiated from
all other Abeta therapies studied in late-stage trials. The recent
surprise announcement of disease-modifying effect obtained by
Biogen/Eisai with their MAb BAN2401 in a Phase II trial may
reignite interest in the amyloid theory and in the Alzheimer’s
disease (AD) field in general. While funding and lack of visibility
on a partnering deal are near-term risks, we find Probiodrug’s
asset PQ912, a small molecule glutaminyl cyclase (QC) inhibitor,
and its Phase IIa data interesting. In our view, any progress with
raising new funds or finding a partnering would unlock substantial
upside from the current low valuation level.
We believe Probiodrug’s lack of progress in business development
is underpinned by lacklustre industry newsflow, but PQ912 seems an
interesting asset based on data reported so far. The new
Biogen/Eisai data may renew interest in Abeta theory in general,
but lack of visibility on Probiodrug deal leads us to introduce a
50% licensing risk in our model. Our updated valuation is €270m or
€32.9/share, down from €513m or €62.4/share. Progress with
partnering or a successful fund-raise could unlock substantial
upside from the current levels, in our view.
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