The following is an update to the second quarter 2022 outlook.
Impacts presented may vary from the actual results and are subject
to finalisation of the second quarter 2022 results, published on
July 28, 2022. Unless otherwise indicated, all outlook statements
exclude identified items.
This update note follows the new reporting segmentation
implemented at the first quarter 2022 results. For further details
around the new reporting segmentation and the enhanced disclosures
for our Growth businesses refer to
www.shell.com/investors/results-and-reporting/quarterly-results/2022/q1-2022.
Consensus collection will follow the new reporting segmentation
format.
Integrated Gas
Adjusted EBITDA
- Production is expected to be between 930 and 980 thousand
barrels of oil equivalent per day.
- LNG liquefaction volumes are expected to be between 7.4 and 8.0
million tonnes, reflecting the derecognition of Sakhalin related
volumes.
- Trading and optimisation results for Integrated Gas are
expected to be lower compared to the first quarter 2022, which had
exceptional trading optimisation opportunities.
- Sakhalin results derecognition is expected to have a negative
impact of $300 to $350 million.
- Underlying Opex is expected to be between $1.1 and $1.3
billion.
- Additionally one-off charges of around $200 million are
expected including well write offs, provisions and commercial
settlements.
Adjusted Earnings
- Pre-tax depreciation is expected to be between $1.3 and $1.5
billion.
- Taxation charge is expected to be between $1.2 and $1.5
billion.
Upstream
Adjusted EBITDA
- Production is expected to be between 1,850 and 1,950 thousand
barrels of oil equivalent per day, reflecting higher scheduled
maintenance.
- Underlying Opex is expected to be between $2.4 and $2.8
billion.
- The share of profit of joint ventures and associates is
expected to include a gain between $500 and $700 million relating
to portfolio, storage and working gas transfer effects.
Adjusted Earnings
- Pre-tax depreciation is expected to be between $2.9 and $3.3
billion.
- Taxation charge is expected to be between $2.8 and $3.4
billion.
Marketing
Adjusted EBITDA
- Marketing results are expected to be higher than the first
quarter 2022 and in line with the second quarter 2021.
- Underlying Opex is expected to be between $1.8 and $2.0
billion.
- Sales volumes are expected to be between 2,300 and 2,700
thousand barrels per day.
Adjusted Earnings
- Pre-tax depreciation is expected to be between $300 and $500
million.
- Taxation charge is expected to be between $200 and $400
million.
Chemicals & Products
Adjusted EBITDA
- The indicative refining margin is $28.04/bbl, compared to
$10.23/bbl in the first quarter 2022; the increased margin is
expected to have a positive impact of between $800 and $1,200
million on the second quarter results of Products compared to the
first quarter 2022.
- Indicative chemicals margin is $86/tonne, compared to $98/tonne
in the first quarter 2022, leading to an expected loss for
chemicals in the second quarter 2022.
- Trading & Optimisation results are expected to be strong in
the second quarter 2022 although lower than the first quarter
2022.
- Refinery utilisation and Chemicals utilisation are both
expected to be within the outlook ranges provided with the first
quarter 2022 results announcement.
- Underlying Opex is expected to be between $2.4 and $2.8
billion.
- Chemical sales volumes are expected to be between 3,000 and
3,400 thousand tonnes.
Adjusted Earnings
- Pre-tax depreciation is expected to be between $600 and $800
million.
- Taxation charge is expected to be between $300 to $700
million.
Renewables and Energy Solutions
- Renewables and Energy Solutions Adjusted Earnings are expected
to be between $400 and $900 million for the second quarter,
benefiting from higher trading and optimisation margins for gas and
power due to continued exceptional market environment in various
markets.
Corporate
- Corporate segment Adjusted Earnings are expected to be a net
expense of $500 to $700 million for the second quarter.
Shell Group
CFFO
- Tax paid is expected to be between $3.3 and $3.7 billion.
- As of the end of May, CFFO was impacted by working capital
outflows of around $6 billion. Prevailing volatility could lead to
material additional movements in CFFO in June from price impacts on
inventory, changes in inventory volumes, margining effects on
derivatives and movements in accounts payable and receivables
balances.
Share Buybacks
- The share buyback programme of $8.5 billion announced for the
first half of 2022 was completed on July 05, 2022.
Revised commodity price outlook and impairment impacts
- In the second quarter 2022, Shell has revised its mid and
long-term Oil and Gas commodity prices reflecting the current
macroeconomic environment as well as updated energy market demand
and supply fundamentals. This resulted in a review of Shell’s
Upstream and Integrated Gas previously impaired assets.
- The following Brent outlook has been assumed for impairment
reversal testing: $80/bbl (2023), $70/bbl (2024), $70/bbl (2025)
and long-term $65 (real terms 2022).
- Aggregate post-tax impairment reversals in the range of $3.5 to
$4.5 billion of previously impaired assets are expected in the
second quarter, primarily due to changes in commodity price
outlook.
- Impairment reversals are reported as identified items and have
no cash impact.
Full-year price and margin sensitivities
The Adjusted Earnings and CFFO price and margin
sensitivities are indicative and subject to change. These are in
relation to the full-year results and exclude short-term impacts
from working capital movements, production seasonality,
cost-of-sales adjustments and derivatives. Sensitivity accuracy is
subject to trading and optimisation performance, including
short-term opportunities, depending on market conditions. These
sensitivities are reviewed and updated annually in the fourth
quarter.
Marker sensitivity |
Adjusted Earnings$ million |
CFFO$ million |
Integrated
Gas |
|
|
+$10/bbl
Brent |
1,000 |
1,000 |
+$10/bbl Japan
Customs-cleared Crude - 3 months |
1,100 |
1,200 |
Upstream |
|
|
+$10/bbl
Brent |
2,500 |
3,000 |
+$1/mmbtu Henry
Hub |
250 |
325 |
+$1/mmbtu EU
TTF |
150 |
150 |
Chemicals &
Products |
|
|
+$1/bbl
indicative refining margin |
425 |
— |
+$30/tonne
indicative chemicals margin |
700 |
— |
Indicative chemicals margin
The indicative chemicals margin is an
approximation of Shell’s global chemical margin performance trend
(including equity-accounted associates), calculated using price
markers from third parties’ databases. It is based on a simplified
feedstock and product yield profile at a nominal level of plant
performance and optimisation. The actual margins realised by Shell
may vary due to factors including specific local market effects,
chemicals plants maintenance, optimisation, operating decisions and
product demand.
Actual historical indicative margins based on the enclosed
indicative margin formula are available on the Chemicals &
Products page in the Quarterly Data Book.
Q2 2022 |
Q1 2022 |
$86/bbl |
$98/bbl |
Calculation formula ($/tonne) - note that brackets indicate a
negative sign. For Natural Gas a factor of 48.65mmBTU/tonne and for
Ethane a factor of 17.6bbl/tonne has been assumed.
NWE TTF Natural Gas*(4.0%) + USGC Henry Hub
Natural Gas*(12.5%) + USGC Mont Belvieu Ethane*(4.0%) + NWE
Naphtha*(19.0%) + NWE Butane*(3.5%) + Singapore Automotive Gasoil
10ppm*(4.0)% + Singapore Fuel oil 380 cst*(1.5)% + Japan
Naphtha*(9.0)% + USGC VGO_LS*(4.5)% + USGC Gasoline Regular*5.5% +
NWE Propylene*6.0% + NWE Ethylene Oxide*2.5% + NWE Ethylene*5.0% +
South East Asia Propylene*1.5% + South East Asia Polypropylene*3% +
China Styrene*10.5% + China Propylene Oxide*3.0% + China MEG*8.0% +
USGC Ethylene*4.0% + Korea Benzene*(4.0)% + $18.5/tonne
Indicative refining margin
The indicative refining margin is an
approximation of Shell’s global gross refining unit margin,
calculated using price markers from third parties’ databases. It is
based on a simplified crude and product yield profile at a nominal
level of refining performance. The actual margins realised by Shell
may vary due to factors including specific local market effects,
refinery maintenance, crude diet optimisation, operating decisions
and product demand.
Gross refining unit margin is defined as the
hydrocarbon margin net of purchased/sold utilities, additives and
relevant freight costs, divided by crude and feedstock intake in
barrels. It is only applicable to the impact of market pricing on
refining business performance, excluding trading margin.
Actual historical indicative margins based on the 2021
indicative margin formula are available on the Refining &
Trading page in the Quarterly Data Book.
Q2 2022 |
Q1 2022 |
Q4 2021 |
Q3 2021 |
Q2 2021 |
$28.04/bbl |
$10.23/bbl |
$6.55/bbl |
$5.70/bbl |
$4.17/bbl |
The formula provided will be reviewed quarterly and typically
updated annually, reflecting any changes in our refining
portfolio.
Calculation formula ($/bbl) - note that brackets indicate a
negative sign
Brent*(29.0%) + MSW*(11.5%) + LLS*(16.0%) +
Dubai*(33.5%) + Urals CIF EU*(7.5%) + NWE Naphtha (RDAM FOB
Barge)*9.5% + NWE Mogas premium unleaded*13.0% + NWE Kero*12.0% +
NWE AGO*27% + NWE Benzene*1% + Sing Fueloil 380 cst*7.5% + USGC
Normal Butane*3.5% + USGC LS No 2 Gasoil*8.0% + USGC Natural
Gas*(2.0%) +TTF Natural Gas*(1%)+ USGC CBOB*14.5% + RINS*(22.0%) +
NWE Propylene Platts*1% – $0.92/bbl
Consensus
The consensus collection for quarterly Adjusted
Earnings, Adjusted EBITDA is per the new reporting segments and
CFFO at a Shell group level, managed by Vara research, will be
published on 21 July 2022 .
Enquiries
Media International: +44 (0) 207 934 5550
Media Americas: +1 832 337 4355
Cautionary Note
The companies in which Shell plc directly and
indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this
announcement “Shell”, “Shell Group” and “Group” are sometimes used
for convenience where references are made to Shell plc and its
subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our”
are also used to refer to Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general
or to those who work for them. These terms are also used where no
useful purpose is served by identifying the particular entity or
entities. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell
companies” as used in this announcement refer to entities over
which Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Entities
and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control
are generally referred to as “joint ventures” and “joint
operations”, respectively. “Joint ventures” and “joint operations”
are collectively referred to as “joint arrangements”.
Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither
control nor joint control are referred to as “associates”. The term
“Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct
and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in an entity or
unincorporated joint arrangement, after exclusion of all
third-party interest.
Forward-Looking StatementsThis
announcement contains forward-looking statements (within the
meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of
1995) concerning the financial condition, results of operations and
businesses of Shell. All statements other than statements of
historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking
statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future
expectations that are based on management’s current expectations
and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and
uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or
events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in
these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other
things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Shell to
market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations,
beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These
forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and
phrases such as “aim”, “ambition”, ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’,
‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’,
‘‘may’’, “milestones”, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’,
‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘risks’’, “schedule”, ‘‘seek’’,
‘‘should’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’ and similar terms and phrases.
There are a number of factors that could affect the future
operations of Shell and could cause those results to differ
materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements
included in this announcement , including (without limitation): (a)
price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in
demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d)
drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss
of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and
physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of
suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and
successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the
risk of doing business in developing countries and countries
subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, judicial,
fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures
addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market
conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks,
including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms
of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in
the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared
costs; (m) risks associated with the impact of pandemics, such as
the COVID-19 (coronavirus) outbreak; and (n) changes in trading
conditions. No assurance is provided that future dividend payments
will match or exceed previous dividend payments. All
forward-looking statements contained in this announcement are
expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements
contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place
undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk
factors that may affect future results are contained in Shell plc’s
Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2021 (available at
www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov). These risk factors also
expressly qualify all forward-looking statements contained in this
announcement and should be considered by the reader. Each
forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this
announcement, July 7, 2022. Neither Shell plc nor any of its
subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise
any forward-looking statement as a result of new information,
future events or other information. In light of these risks,
results could differ materially from those stated, implied or
inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this
announcement.
Shell’s net carbon footprint
Also, in this announcement we may refer to
Shell’s “Net Carbon Footprint” or “Net Carbon Intensity”, which
include Shell’s carbon emissions from the production of our energy
products, our suppliers’ carbon emissions in supplying energy for
that production and our customers’ carbon emissions associated with
their use of the energy products we sell. Shell only controls its
own emissions. The use of the term Shell’s “Net Carbon Footprint”
or “Net Carbon Intensity” are for convenience only and not intended
to suggest these emissions are those of Shell plc or its
subsidiaries.
Shell’s net-Zero Emissions Target
Shell’s operating plan, outlook and budgets are
forecasted for a ten-year period and are updated every year.
They reflect the current economic environment and what we can
reasonably expect to see over the next ten years. Accordingly, they
reflect our Scope 1, Scope 2 and Net Carbon Footprint (NCF) targets
over the next ten years. However, Shell’s operating plans
cannot reflect our 2050 net-zero emissions target and 2035 NCF
target, as these targets are currently outside our planning period.
In the future, as society moves towards net-zero emissions, we
expect Shell’s operating plans to reflect this movement. However,
if society is not net zero in 2050, as of today, there would be
significant risk that Shell may not meet this target.
Forward Looking Non-GAAP measures
This announcement may contain certain
forward-looking non-GAAP measures such as IFRS, including
Adjusted Earnings, “Adjusted EBITDA”, Cash flow from operating
activities excluding working capital movements, Cash capital
expenditure, Net debt and Underlying opex.
Adjusted Earnings and Adjusted EBITDA are
measures used to evaluate Shell’s performance in the period and
over time.The “Adjusted Earnings” and Adjusted EBITDA are measures
which aim to facilitate a comparative understanding of Shell’s
financial performance from period to period by removing the effects
of oil price changes on inventory carrying amounts and removing the
effects of identified items. Adjusted Earnings is defined as
income/(loss) attributable to shareholders adjusted for the current
cost of supplies and excluding identified items. “Adjusted EBITDA
(CCS basis)” is defined as “Income/(loss) for the period” adjusted
for current cost of supplies; identified items; tax
charge/(credit); depreciation, amortisation and depletion;
exploration well write-offs and net interest expense. All items
include the non-controlling interest component. Cash flow from
operating activities excluding working capital movements is a
measure used by Shell to analyse its operating cash generation over
time excluding the timing effects of changes in inventories and
operating receivables and payables from period to period. Working
capital movements are defined as the sum of the following items in
the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows: (i) (increase)/decrease
in inventories, (ii) (increase)/decrease in current receivables,
and (iii) increase/(decrease) in current payables. Cash capital
expenditure is the sum of the following lines from the Consolidated
Statement of Cash flows: Capital expenditure, Investments in joint
ventures and associates and Investments in equity securities. Net
debt is defined as the sum of current and non-current debt, less
cash and cash equivalents, adjusted for the fair value of
derivative financial instruments used to hedge foreign exchange and
interest rate risks relating to debt, and associated collateral
balances. Underlying operating expenses is a measure of Shell’s
cost management performance and aimed at facilitating a comparative
understanding of performance from period to period by removing the
effects of identified items, which, either individually or
collectively, can cause volatility, in some cases driven by
external factors. Underlying operating expenses comprises the
following items from the Consolidated statement of Income:
production and manufacturing expenses; selling, distribution and
administrative expenses; and research and development expenses and
removes the effects of identified items such as redundancy and
restructuring charges or reversals, provisions or reversals and
others.
We are unable to provide a reconciliation of
these forward-looking Non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP
financial measures because certain information needed to reconcile
those Non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP financial
measures is dependent on future events some of which are outside
the control of Shell, such as oil and gas prices, interest rates
and exchange rates. Moreover, estimating such GAAP measures with
the required precision necessary to provide a meaningful
reconciliation is extremely difficult and could not be accomplished
without unreasonable effort. Non-GAAP measures in respect of future
periods which cannot be reconciled to the most comparable GAAP
financial measure are calculated in a manner which is consistent
with the accounting policies applied in Shell plc’s consolidated
financial statements.The contents of websites referred to in this
announcement do not form part of this announcement.
We may have used certain terms, such as
resources, in this announcement that the United States Securities
and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including
in our filings with the SEC. Investors are urged to consider
closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available
on the SEC website www.sec.gov.
LEI number of Shell plc:
21380068P1DRHMJ8KU70
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