GOOGL Alphabet Inc

Shares of Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) dropped 2% as uncertainty lingers over the outcome of a high-profile federal antitrust trial. During a recent hearing, U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta suggested he may consider less drastic measures than those proposed by the Department of Justice (DOJ) to curb Google’s dominance in online search and advertising.

The judge expressed concerns about the DOJ’s recommended 10-year plan, citing the fast-paced changes in technology – highlighted by OpenAI’s recent acquisition of a device startup – as a reason for caution. The DOJ and a coalition of states want Google to stop its multibillion-dollar payments to remain the default search engine on new devices and to share search data to promote competition.

Since the trial began in April, the case has already influenced market sentiment, especially after revelations of Apple’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) plans to develop AI-powered search alternatives. A ruling from Judge Mehta, expected by August, could reshape the competitive landscape and impact Google’s AI initiatives and its agreements with smartphone makers.

The trial has underscored the complex intersection of search engine monopolies and emerging AI technologies. OpenAI’s representative, Nick Turley, testified that access to Google’s search data would accelerate ChatGPT’s improvements, while Google’s legal team argued against sharing proprietary information with major competitors like OpenAI.

Analysts remain divided on the possible outcomes. Barclays maintains an overweight rating with a $220 price target but highlights that key risks include bans on distribution payments and ad syndication. TD Cowen’s Paul Gallant anticipates that Judge Mehta may impose all three DOJ remedies – ending traffic acquisition costs (TAC), divesting Chrome, and data sharing – but also notes the judge’s openness to more balanced solutions that limit collateral damage in the tech ecosystem.

“On Friday, Judge Mehta heard closing arguments in the Google Search remedies trial. We expect he may order all three DOJ remedies but remains open to nuanced approaches,” Gallant wrote.

As the market awaits the ruling, Alphabet’s stock price reflects investor caution amid the evolving regulatory and technological challenges facing the company.

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