Celestia (TIA) Set For Major Breakout? Top OTC Exec Warns Of Supply Shock
30 Outubro 2024 - 8:00PM
NEWSBTC
In an analysis shared on X, Taran Sabharwal, CEO of Stix—a leading
OTC trading platform specializing in liquidity solutions for
private crypto transactions—provided insights into the upcoming
unlock dynamics of the Celestia (TIA) token scheduled for October
31, 2024. His assessment suggests that the market may be
underestimating the potential impact on TIA’s price action heading
into November. Why Celestia (TIA) Could Be A Buy “TIA – an OTC
story,” Sabharwal began. “We used on-chain data (via @celenium_io
API) to judge exactly how the unlock dynamics may shape TIA’s PA
going into Nov. The results are in the table above. We’ve
summarized that a total of 92.3M TIA will be liquid post unlock,
which would act as the upper bound of overall spot selling
pressure.” Interestingly, this figure accounts for less than 50% of
the total cliff unlocks, suggesting that the actual sell pressure
may be only half of what the market has been anticipating.
Sabharwal highlighted that the real increase in circulating supply
compared to the current supply indicates a 41.8% dilution. Related
Reading: Celestia (TIA) Leads Crypto Market With 16% Surge, Will It
Hit $7 This Month? A significant factor in this dynamic is the
activity of OTC buyers who acquired large amounts of the initial
unlock and hedged on perpetual futures, causing open interest to
surge in recent months. “We expect many of these shorts to continue
winding down, partially negating the spot-selling pressure,” he
explained. This unwinding could serve as a bullish signal for spot
buyers due to the potential reset in funding rates. Sabharwal’s
analysis included several key assumptions. OTC round buyers possess
an 11 million TIA cliff unlock, included in the non-staked token
category since these tokens originated from treasury wallets not
tagged on the blockchain explorer. His team mapped a total of 292
vesting wallets but acknowledged some gaps, which were also
included in the non-staked category. Reflecting on TIA’s OTC
history on Stix, Sabharwal observed that Celestia has been one of
the most actively traded assets in the OTC market this cycle. Early
in the cycle, it offered an attractive opportunity for directional
buyers, while sellers were eager to realize large unrealized
profits without expecting an imminent bull market in Q3 2023. He
continued: “In Q1 2024, the bull had matured and TIA rallied to
$20+. OTC activity was minimal here as sellers didn’t want to take
larger discounts (40+%) and buyers didn’t want to bid higher than
the $8.5 ceiling. We saw almost no activity as sellers were
‘feeling’ rich and wanted to stay risk-on, despite having the
opportunity to realize 100-800x on their investments.” Related
Reading: Celestia Plans For 1 GB Blocks For Scaling: Why Are TIA
Holders Worried? The dynamics shifted when TIA fell below $5. This
was around the time when the Celestia Foundation started raising
its OTC round of $100M at $3. “The vesting for buyers was the same
as those of private investors—33% unlock on Oct 31 2024 (<2
months from the round) and a 12-month linear unlock,” Sabharwal
noted. During the third and fourth quarters of 2024, aggressive OTC
trading activity resumed, with sellers offloading various
positions. Stix alone facilitated approximately $60 million in TIA
volume since July, suggesting that total trading volume could
exceed $80 million across all liquidity channels, assuming Stix
holds a 75% market share in the OTC space. Summing up his analysis,
Sabharwal concluded: “TLDR: Shorts will keep unwinding into the
unlock and funding rates may reset to 0 or positive. People who
missed the 9th October unstaking deadline may also have unstaked
during October, causing further spot supply (ready to be sold)
going into November. Either way, the supply shock is massive and
it’s been the most broadcasted unlock of this cycle. That, coupled
with suppressing OTC discounts, may create a lot of action for the
coin.” Renowned crypto analyst Will Clemente also weighed in on the
developments via X: “Great piece on $TIA OTC activity by Taran from
Stix. TLDR: OTC discount to spot in the private market has
compressed over the last year, showing growing demand into the
unlock. Stix alone has done $60mm in TIA OTC volume since July.”
Clemente added his perspective on the potential market impact: “I
think this BTC price action has further slid the probability of
Thursday’s TIA unlock being bearish towards ‘no’. 6 months of
reaccumulation after 80% drawdown, ton of OTC volume, most widely
telegraphed unlock in crypto history, 9 figs short, BTC nearing
ATHs. Am long rn.” At press time, TIA traded at $5.00. Featured
image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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