151,680 Europeans and UK Residents Projected to Die in 'First
Wave' of Pandemic
Significant Shortage Projected for Hospital Beds, ICU Beds,
and Ventilators
'Unequivocally evident that social distancing can help
control the trajectory of the pandemic'
SEATTLE, April 7, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- New COVID-19
estimates find that, among European nations, the peak daily death
rate from the pandemic will occur during the third week of April,
with the pandemic spreading from Southern
Europe.
The new forecasts, released today by the Institute for Health
Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington's School of Medicine, find
that approximately 151,680 people will die during what researchers
are calling the "first wave" of the pandemic. By comparison, the US
is expected to face 81,766 deaths, according to forecasts released
on Sunday by IHME.
"We are expecting a foreboding few weeks for people in many
parts of Europe," said IHME
Director Dr. Christopher Murray. "It
seems likely the number of deaths will exceed our projections for
the United States."
This is despite the declines in deaths that are now occurring in
Italy and Spain.
The death toll in many countries is compounded by demand for
hospital resources well in excess of what is available. For
example, peak demand in the UK is expected to total 102,794
hospital beds needed compared to 17,765 available, 24,544 ICU beds
compared to 799 ICU beds available, and 20,862 ventilators
needed (with data currently unavailable on ventilators
available).
Today's announcement on Europe
finds that most regions of Italy
and Spain have passed their peaks
in the number of deaths, while other nations are approaching their
peaks and still others facing peak mortality later in April.
Countries that are about to peak or are quickly approaching peak
in this wave of the epidemic include The
Netherlands, Ireland,
Austria, and Luxembourg. The Czech Republic and Romania are midway through their expected
trajectories. Other nations including the United Kingdom, Germany, Norway, and Greece are still
early in their trajectories and face fast-rising death tolls
through their peaks in the second and third weeks of
April.
"It is unequivocally evident that social distancing can, when
well implemented and maintained, control the epidemic, leading to
declining death rates," Murray said. "Those nations hit hard early
on implemented social distancing orders and may have the worst
behind them as they are seeing important progress in reducing their
death rates. Each nation's trajectory will change – and
dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing
or relax other precautions."
Murray cautioned that easing these precautions too soon during
the first wave of the pandemic could lead to new rounds of
infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. He defines the end of
this "wave" as a ratio of 0.3 deaths per 1 million people. IHME's
projections assume that social distancing measures, if not
currently implemented, will be implemented within one week.
"To decrease the risk of a second wave in places where the first
wave is controlled by robust social distancing, governments would
need to consider mass testing, contact tracing, and quarantines for
those infected until a vaccination is available, mass produced, and
distributed widely," Murray said.
IHME started making projections of the pandemic's impact in
the United States state-by-state
on March 26. Today's announcement is
the first set of predictions for European nations and is based on
modeling the peak in death rates and hospital usage in Wuhan City in China, where the virus was first discovered,
as well as data from seven European locations that have peaked,
including Madrid, Spain;
Castile-La Mancha, Spain;
Tuscany, Italy; Emilia-Romagna, Italy; Liguria, Italy; Piedmont, Italy; and Lombardy, Italy.
Of these eight locations that have reached the peak regarding
daily deaths, only one, Wuhan, has
currently brought new cases to nearly zero.
The analysis is based on an extensive range of information and
data sources, including:
- Local governments, national governments, and the World Health
Organization
- Government declarations on implementation of social distancing
policies
- Age-specific death rate data from China, Italy,
South Korea, and the US
Here are some country-specific findings from IHME's latest
forecasting:
- ITALY: The first wave of the
pandemic has peaked in Italy, and
peak resource use for ICU beds and ventilators was on March 28. Deaths are forecast to peak in
Calabria on April 7, and in Puglia on April 16. On April
6, 699 daily deaths were projected, with only three
provinces (Lombardy, Piedmont, and
Emilia-Romagna) seeing more than
50 deaths daily.
- SPAIN: Almost all regions of
Spain are at or past the peak.
Excess demand for ICU beds is particularly high in Spain compared to many other countries in
Europe. The forecasts predict
19,209 total deaths from COVID-19 in Spain by August
4.
- PORTUGAL: Deaths in
Portugal peaked on April 3 with an estimated 37 deaths. The model
shows that while Portugal did not
have a total bed shortage, it did not have enough ICU beds to meet
demand, with the shortage peaking at 118 ICU beds on April 3. The model predicts 471 total deaths in
the country by August 4.
- FRANCE: The model shows that
France is just passing the peak
and will have a total of 15,058 deaths by August 4. The country is expected to have enough
total beds to meet demand, but a shortage of 4,330 ICU beds. The
forecasts predict 6,091 ICU beds will be needed for COVID-19
patients in France.
- GERMANY: Deaths in
Germany are forecast to peak in
the third week of April, with an estimated 377 deaths on
April 19. The model shows that
Germany will have enough beds and
ICU beds to meet demand, with the required number of total beds
peaking at 12,222 on April 14, and
predicts 8,802 total deaths in the country by August 4.
- SWEDEN: Deaths in Sweden are forecast to peak the last week of
April, with an estimated 134 deaths on April
24. The model shows that Sweden will not have enough beds and ICU beds
to meet demand, with the shortage peaking at 1,090 ICU beds on
April 25, and predicts 4,182 total
deaths in the country by August
4.
- UK: Deaths in the UK are forecast to peak the third week of
April, with an estimated 2,932 deaths on April 17. The model shows that the UK will not
have enough beds and ICU beds to meet demand, with the shortage
peaking at 23,745 ICU beds on April
17, and predicts 66,314 total deaths in the country by
August 4.
For the complete update, please visit
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates.
For a video of Dr. Murray summarizing key points of IHME's
COVID-19 data analysis for Europe,
please visit
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vM0pwEulCs&feature=youtu.be
Contact: media@healthdata.org
For Italy:
|
Gianluca Giansante,
Gianluca.giansante@cominandpartners.com,
|
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+39
3409017753
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Orsola Randi,
orsola.randi@cominandpartners.com, +39 3393273672
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For Spain:
|
Andrea Joseph,
andreamarianajoseph1@gmail.com, +5491159790368
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For UK and other
European nations:
|
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Oliver Courtney,
oliver.courtney@digacommunications.com, +447815 731889
|
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Jon Date,
jon.date@digacommunications.com, +44 7533011983
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NOTE: Dr. Murray will conduct a
briefing for journalists on the new Europe COVID-19
forecasts on Tuesday, April 7
WHO:
|
Dr. Christopher
Murray, Founder and Director, Institute for Health Metrics and
Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington's School of
Medicine
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|
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WHAT:
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Briefing for
journalists on new Europe forecasts on COVID-19
|
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WHEN:
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6 AM (Pacific Time);
3 PM (Central European Time); 2 PM (UK Time),
|
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Tuesday, April 7,
2020
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WHERE:
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Via Zoom:
https://washington.zoom.us/j/382600333
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Meeting ID: 382 600
333
|
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Find your local
number: https://washington.zoom.us/u/ac7iy5zTFE
|
NOTE: Hospital administrators, government officials, and
others not associated with the news media may
contact COVID19@healthdata.org.
IHME is grateful to the Microsoft AI for Health program for
supporting our hosting of COVID-19 data visualizations in the Azure
cloud.
About the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an
independent global health research organization at the University of Washington School of Medicine that
provides rigorous and comparable measurement of the world's most
important health problems and evaluates the strategies used to
address them. IHME is committed to transparency and makes this
information widely available so that policymakers have the evidence
they need to make informed decisions on allocating resources to
improve population health.
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