SANTA CLARA, Calif.,
Sept. 13, 2021 /PRNewswire/
-- The best time to buy a home in America is officially here.
Between Sept. 12 and Oct.17, the
majority of markets across the country will hit their home buying
sweet spot with more homes for sale, lower prices and less buyer
competition compared to the average week of the year, according to
Realtor.com®'s Best Time to Buy Report. This week
kicks off the season with optimal home buying conditions in
New York, Los Angeles, Boston, Denver, Detroit, Minneapolis, and Portland, but the majority (18 markets) won't
hit their prime until the week of Oct.
3 (see chart below for optimal weeks by market).
Those who buy a home during their market's best time to buy week
on average will see 166,000 (31%) more listings than the average
week of the year and have an additional 100,000 more new listings
to choose from nationwide. They will have 18% less competition from
other buyers than the peak and 6% less than the typical week. They
could see prices $10,000 (2.6%) below
their seasonal high and will have 7 more days, on average, to
consider a home before it's gone.
"Home prices peaked in the summer, and new listings continue to
come on the market helping slow the pace of sales -- which is good
news for homebuyers," said Danielle
Hale, chief economist, Realtor.com®. "As
families across the country focus on getting back into school
routines, there are fewer buyers in the market, creating a great
opportunity especially for first-time homebuyers to make a purchase
with somewhat less competition."
Based on an analysis of listing data since 2018,
Realtor.com® has found that this time period
offers the best balance of market conditions for homebuyers. While
the current market is still challenging, especially for first-time
homebuyers, the key factors -- available homes and buyers in the
market -- align best starting Sept.
12 to reduce prices and competition with the majority of
major metro areas hitting their sweet spot by Oct. 17.
There will be more homes to choose from
- Although the year began with extreme inventory shortages, the
market began to consistently see more listings this summer adding
100,000 or more new listings in 15 of the last 17 weeks.
- On average, the best time to buy in each market will mean
166,000 (31%) more active listings than the average week and have
an additional 100,000 new listings to choose from nationwide. That
is 46% more than the start of the year.
- The week of Oct. 3, we expect to
see 7.2% more active listings than the average week, and 17.6% more
than the start of a typical year.
- If 2021 follows the typical seasonal pattern, there should be
around 705,000 listings on the market in October nationwide, which
is roughly 100,000 more active listings than during the peak summer
season in July.
Buyers will face less competition
Fall sees a seasonal
slowdown partly driven by the opening of schools, as many buyers
put their home search on hold when their children return to the
classroom.
- July is typically the peak for homebuyer demand, as measured by
views per property on Realtor.com®. The summer has the
highest concentration of buyers looking at each home for sale,
which translates to competition for buyers looking to lock down a
home.
- On average, the best time to buy in each market will see 18%
less competition than the July peak and 6% less than the average
week.
Prices may begin to dip
Prices and affordability
remain at the forefront of many buyers' minds, especially after the
double-digit price growth earlier in the year. During the best week
to buy, homes may be more affordable.
- During the week of Oct. 3 prices
could dip 2.6% compared to a typical season high. On a median
listing price of $385,000, buyers
could save approximately $10,000. And
in the largest housing markets, prices could dip more than 10% from
their peak.
- The best week to buy is also a peak period for price
reductions, with an average of 7.0% of homes dropping their price.
Based on inventory estimates, this could mean roughly 50,000 homes
nationally will see price reductions.
- An added help to buyers: mortgage rates remain near historical
lows (2.87% in August).
Homes are selling a bit slower
Homes have been selling
at a blistering pace, forcing many buyers to make a purchase sight
unseen, or to make more concessions to close a deal. But the best
week to buy should bring some relief to those who need more time to
make their decision.
- In June, the national median time on market for a home was just
37 days, down from 56 days in 2020.
- On average, home buyers will have 7 additional days to consider
a home.
- During the week of Oct. 3, we
expect the pace to slow by 18%, compared to the peak pace earlier
in the year. That means by October, it should slow to about 44
days.
Best Time to Buy for the Top 50 Largest Metro Areas
Metro
|
Best
Week
|
Active
Listings
vs Avg.
|
Views
Per
Property
vs Peak
|
Days
on
Market
v
s Peak
|
Median
Listing
Price
vs
Peak
|
New
Listings
vs Avg.
|
Price
Reductions
vs Avg.
|
United
States
|
Oct. 3 -
Oct. 9
|
7%
|
-18%
|
18%
|
-2.6%
|
6%
|
1.3%
|
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale,
Ariz.
|
Jan. 10 -
Jan. 16
|
10%
|
-18%
|
48%
|
-7.8%
|
19%
|
0.1%
|
Miami-Fort
Lauderdale-West
Palm Beach, Fla.
|
Feb. 7 -
Feb. 13
|
6%
|
-12%
|
11%
|
-2.5%
|
25%
|
0.5%
|
Pittsburgh,
Pa.
|
Jan. 10 -
Jan. 16
|
3%
|
-22%
|
83%
|
-12.8%
|
-12%
|
-1.5%
|
Tampa-St.
Petersburg-
Clearwater, Fla.
|
Jan. 10 -
Jan. 16
|
2%
|
-15%
|
27%
|
-7.1%
|
12%
|
0.3%
|
Philadelphia-Camden-
Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md.
|
June 6 -
June 12
|
6%
|
-28%
|
6%
|
-1.1%
|
30%
|
1.4%
|
Boston-Cambridge-Newton,
Mass.-N.H.
|
Sept. 12 -
Sept. 18
|
21%
|
-30%
|
63%
|
-5.8%
|
45%
|
2.4%
|
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood,
Colo.
|
Sept. 12 -
Sept. 18
|
23%
|
-39%
|
50%
|
-8.6%
|
22%
|
3.1%
|
Los Angeles-Long
Beach-
Anaheim, Calif.
|
Sept. 12 -
Sept. 18
|
17%
|
-27%
|
36%
|
-0.9%
|
18%
|
1.3%
|
New
York-Newark-Jersey City,
N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.
|
Sept. 12 -
Sept. 18
|
8%
|
-18%
|
39%
|
-3.9%
|
25%
|
1.0%
|
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn,
Mich.
|
Sept. 12 -
Sept. 18
|
69%
|
-51%
|
27%
|
-7.0%
|
18%
|
0.0%
|
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro,
Ore.-Wash.
|
Sept. 12 -
Sept. 18
|
24%
|
-30%
|
47%
|
-3.5%
|
19%
|
2.1%
|
Minneapolis-St.
Paul-
Bloomington, Minn.-Wis.
|
Sept. 12 -
Sept. 18
|
25%
|
-28%
|
20%
|
-11.2%
|
34%
|
3.1%
|
Austin-Round Rock,
Texas
|
Sept. 19 -
Sept. 25
|
13%
|
-22%
|
34%
|
-4.8%
|
3%
|
1.6%
|
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.
-Ind.-Wis.
|
Sept. 19 -
Sept. 25
|
16%
|
-30%
|
26%
|
-6.1%
|
12%
|
1.6%
|
Memphis,
Tenn.-Mo.-Ark.
|
Sept. 19 -
Sept. 25
|
7%
|
-18%
|
17%
|
-1.1%
|
20%
|
1.4%
|
San Antonio-New
Braunfels,
Texas
|
Sept. 19 -
Sept. 25
|
11%
|
-23%
|
25%
|
-5.6%
|
23%
|
1.2%
|
Washington-Arlington-
Alexandria, D.C.-Va-Md-W.V.
|
Sept. 19 -
Sept. 25
|
14%
|
-26%
|
49%
|
-4.8%
|
11%
|
1.3%
|
Jacksonville,
Fla.
|
Sept. 26 -
Oct. 2
|
3%
|
-24%
|
17%
|
-6.3%
|
5%
|
1.5%
|
Rochester,
N.Y.
|
Sept. 26 -
Oct.
2
|
15%
|
-29%
|
43%
|
-10.7%
|
-2%
|
1.9%
|
St. Louis,
Mo.-Ill.
|
Sept. 26 -
Oct. 2
|
11%
|
-17%
|
18%
|
-4.3%
|
12%
|
1.5%
|
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue,
Wash.
|
Sept. 26 -
Oct. 2
|
41%
|
-53%
|
93%
|
-7.3%
|
16%
|
2.9%
|
Atlanta-Sandy
Springs-
Roswell, Ga.
|
Oct. 3 -
Oct. 9
|
11%
|
-23%
|
25%
|
-6.6%
|
12%
|
1.4%
|
Birmingham-Hoover,
Ala.
|
Oct. 3 -
Oct. 9
|
4%
|
-14%
|
19%
|
-5.1%
|
4%
|
0.7%
|
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia,
N.C.-S.C.
|
Oct. 3 -
Oct. 9
|
7%
|
-16%
|
22%
|
-5.6%
|
6%
|
1.6%
|
Columbus,
Ohio
|
Oct. 3 -
Oct. 9
|
21%
|
-34%
|
40%
|
-12.3%
|
10%
|
3.3%
|
Dallas-Fort
Worth-Arlington,
Texas
|
Oct. 3 -
Oct. 9
|
12%
|
-25%
|
37%
|
-8.5%
|
5%
|
1.9%
|
Houston-The
Woodlands-
Sugar Land, Texas
|
Oct. 3 -
Oct. 9
|
5%
|
-25%
|
35%
|
-4.6%
|
-1%
|
1.7%
|
Hartford-West
Hartford-East
Hartford, Conn.
|
Oct. 3 -
Oct. 9
|
9%
|
-21%
|
46%
|
-2.8%
|
10%
|
1.7%
|
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West
Allis, Wis.
|
Oct. 3 -
Oct. 9
|
17%
|
-22%
|
31%
|
-16.1%
|
-4%
|
2.5%
|
Oklahoma City,
Okla.
|
Oct. 3 -
Oct. 9
|
1%
|
-18%
|
26%
|
-2.7%
|
15%
|
1.4%
|
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson,
Ind.
|
Oct. 3 -
Oct. 9
|
17%
|
-27%
|
30%
|
-15.6%
|
19%
|
2.2%
|
Kansas City,
Mo.-Kan.
|
Oct. 3 -
Oct. 9
|
13%
|
-27%
|
32%
|
-7.3%
|
11%
|
1.8%
|
Providence-Warwick,
R.I.-
Mass.
|
Oct. 3 -
Oct. 9
|
16%
|
-18%
|
26%
|
-4.1%
|
20%
|
1.9%
|
Richmond,
Va
|
Oct. 3 -
Oct. 9
|
11%
|
-17%
|
26%
|
-5.6%
|
13%
|
1.9%
|
New Orleans-Metairie,
La.
|
Oct. 3 -
Oct. 9
|
1%
|
-13%
|
22%
|
-5.6%
|
4%
|
0.8%
|
Riverside-San Bernardino-
Ontario, Calif.
|
Oct. 3 -
Oct. 9
|
5%
|
-20%
|
12%
|
-1.5%
|
12%
|
1.1%
|
San
Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa
Clara, Calif.
|
Oct. 3 -
Oct. 9
|
29%
|
-50%
|
75%
|
-10.3%
|
8%
|
3.1%
|
Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-
Arcade, Calif.
|
Oct. 3 -
Oct. 9
|
20%
|
-33%
|
49%
|
-4.6%
|
1%
|
1.5%
|
Cincinnati,
Ohio-Ky.-Ind.
|
Oct. 10 -
Oct. 16
|
12%
|
-24%
|
23%
|
-9.3%
|
9%
|
1.3%
|
Cleveland-Elyria,
Ohio
|
Oct. 17 -
Oct. 23
|
12%
|
-21%
|
23%
|
-7.7%
|
3%
|
1.7%
|
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson,
Md.
|
Oct. 17 -
Oct. 23
|
10%
|
-25%
|
31%
|
-5.3%
|
3%
|
1.4%
|
Raleigh,
N.C.
|
Oct. 17 -
Oct. 23
|
10%
|
-20%
|
31%
|
-4.1%
|
5%
|
2.5%
|
San
Francisco-Oakland-
Hayward, Calif.
|
Oct. 17 -
Oct. 23
|
31%
|
-44%
|
58%
|
-5.9%
|
7%
|
2.3%
|
Las
Vegas-Henderson-
Paradise, Nev.
|
Oct. 24 -
Oct. 30
|
13%
|
-34%
|
20%
|
-6.6%
|
6%
|
2.7%
|
Nashville-Davidson--
Murfreesboro--Franklin, Tenn.
|
Oct. 31 -
Nov. 6
|
10%
|
-16%
|
30%
|
-4.6%
|
12%
|
1.4%
|
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford,
Fla.
|
Oct. 31 -
Nov. 6
|
4%
|
-20%
|
11%
|
-4.0%
|
-1%
|
1.1%
|
Louisville/Jefferson
County,
Ky-Ind.
|
Nov. 7 -
Nov. 13
|
12%
|
-20%
|
24%
|
-11.3%
|
-3%
|
1.5%
|
San Diego-Carlsbad,
Calif.
|
Oct. 31 -
Nov. 6
|
8%
|
-40%
|
45%
|
-6.5%
|
-6%
|
1.4%
|
Virginia
Beach-Norfolk-
Newport News, Va-N.C.
|
Nov. 7 -
Nov. 13
|
3%
|
-30%
|
38%
|
-4.8%
|
-1%
|
0.1%
|
Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara
Falls, N.Y.
|
Nov. 14 -
Nov. 20
|
9%
|
-45%
|
90%
|
-11.6%
|
-14%
|
1.9%
|
Methodology:
Realtor.com® analyzed six
supply and demand metrics at a national and metropolitan level
using data for 2018-2019 period (2020 data was omitted due to
anomalies caused by the pandemic). Those metrics include: 1)
listing prices, 2) inventory levels, 3) new "fresh" listings, 4)
time on market, 5) homebuyer demand
(Realtor.com® views per property), and 6) price
reductions.
Each week of the year was ranked using each of those metrics by
how favorable the conditions were for buyers (e.g. high score for
lower prices). The week with the highest composite score across all
metrics was considered the best time to buy. This week represents a
balanced view of market conditions favorable for buyers.
About Realtor.com®
Realtor.com®
makes buying, selling, renting and living in homes easier and more
rewarding for everyone. Realtor.com® pioneered the world
of digital real estate more than 20 years ago, and today through
its website and mobile apps is a trusted source for the
information, tools and professional expertise that help people move
confidently through every step of their home journey. Using
proprietary data science and machine learning technology,
Realtor.com® pairs buyers and sellers with local agents
in their market, helping take the guesswork out of buying and
selling a home. For professionals, Realtor.com® is a
trusted provider of consumer connections and branding solutions
that help them succeed in today's on-demand world.
Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS,
NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. under a perpetual
license from the National Association of REALTORS®. For
more information, visit Realtor.com®.
Media Contact:
Press@realtor.com
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SOURCE Realtor.com