China Trade Data Caps Metals Rebound
13 Outubro 2015 - 4:50AM
Dow Jones News
HONG KONG—Base-metal prices fell in Asia trade on Tuesday after
more disappointing Chinese import data for September, casting a
pall over a recent price rebound in metals from multiyear lows.
China's overall imports fell 17.7% in yuan terms the previous
month, compared with a 14.3% decrease in August.
Following the China trade-data release, prices of three-month
aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.9% to $1,581 a
metric ton, while copper fell 0.6%. Zinc dropped as much as 1.6% to
$1,812.50 a ton, nipping a rally that started last week after major
producer Glencore PLC announced a production cut equivalent to 4%
of the global supply.
The price falls came despite rising Chinese demand for some
commodities in September. Chinese copper imports rose 18%
year-over-year, which analysts attributed to consumers taking
advantage of low prices to restock. Iron-ore imports nudged up
1.7%.
"The big concern is the overall import data," said Helen Lau, an
analyst at Argonaut Securities. "Everybody is looking at that as a
sign of domestic demand."
Ms. Lau said copper prices had fallen back after rallying by
more than 3% over the past three trading days, thanks to a weaker
dollar and signs of mining companies cutting back supply.
China is the biggest source of global demand for metals from
iron ore to copper, and its slowing economic growth has been the
biggest drag on the global market for months.
Still, prices for copper and zinc as well as other metals had
recently come off multiyear lows hit in late August and September,
after other mining companies joined Glencore in announcing
production cutbacks.
"We are looking at weaker-than-expected imports in China. Lower
imports would suggest that demand for commodities is still weak,"
said Daniel Ang, an analyst with Phillip Futures. "This will cause
bearishness on prices today."
Meanwhile, exports of steel and steel products from China, the
world's largest producer, are up 27% year-to-date. Chinese
steelmakers have stepped up their overseas sales in recent months
as domestic demand has slowed, causing a glut in global
markets.
"China still has some issues to deal with and probably you will
get a few more bad numbers from there," said Thomas J McMohan, a
Singapore-based managing director of commodity firm UD Trading
Group Holding Pte. Ltd.
With Chinese demand still looking weak, any further rise in
metals prices is dependent on further output cuts by mining
companies, analysts said.
Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank,
said he was anticipating a price recovery in base metals as more
mining companies and metal producers would likely to cut their
production over the next few weeks.
A Citibank report said it was still too early to see any
potential upturn for the longer term, but "there is a strong
possibility that recent lows were the lows for the cycle."
It said the recent price rally was encouraging, but added that
commodities had underperformed every other asset class in the third
quarter.
Write to Biman Mukherji at biman.mukherji@wsj.com
Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 13, 2015 03:35 ET (07:35 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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