Hx House Price Index- June 07
04 Julho 2007 - 5:00AM
UK Regulatory
RNS Number:5534Z
HBOS PLC
04 July 2007
Halifax House Price Index
National Index June 2006
All Houses, All Buyers Index (1983=100)
Index (seasonally adjusted) 639.1 Monthly Change 0.4% Annual Change 10.7%
Standardised Average Price (seasonally adjusted) #197,461
Key Points
* House prices increased by 0.4%, the second successive monthly rise of less
than 0.5%.
* Overall, house prices increased by 2.0% in 2007 Quarter 2, less than the
3.0% increase in 2007 Quarter 1 and well below the 4.2% rise in 2006
Quarter 4.
* Northern Ireland is now the most expensive part of the UK outside London
and the South East. In early 2005, Scotland was the only part of the UK
with lower average house prices than Northern Ireland.
* House prices increased in most regions during 2007 Q2. The biggest price
rises were in Northern Ireland (8.5%) and Greater London (4.9%). There
were house price falls in the South West (-0.4%), West Midlands (-1.1%) and
Wales (-2.8%). These modest declines, however, should be seen in the
context of the substantial price rises recorded in all three areas over the
past five years: South West (63%), West Midlands (81%) and Wales (116%).
* The average price in the North passed #150,000 for the first time in 2007
Q2, reaching #155,188. Scotland (#140,262) and Yorkshire & the Humber
(#149,051) are the only parts of the UK where the average price remains
below #150,000.
* The increases in mortgage rates since last summer and recent negative real
income growth are expected to cause annual house price inflation to slow
over the coming months.
* Solid economic fundamentals - underlined by economic growth above the
long-term average pace and increasing employment during the past year - and
an ongoing shortage of housing supply will continue to support house
prices. GDP is confirmed to have grown at above its long-term average pace
in the first quarter of 2007 with a quarterly 0.7% increase. The UK
economy is expected to have achieved its 60th consecutive quarter of rising
activity in 2007 Q2, extending the longest unbroken stretch on record.
Commenting, Martin Ellis, Chief Economist, said:
"House prices increased by 0.4% in June, marking the second successive monthly
rise of less than 0.5%. Overall, prices increased by 2.0% in 2007 Quarter 2,
less than the 3.0% increase in 2007 Quarter 1 and well below the 4.2% rise in
2006 Quarter 4. These figures indicate that house price inflation is slowing.
The increases in mortgage rates and the persistence of negative real earnings
growth in the early months of 2007 are expected to cause annual house price
inflation to slow further over the coming months. Solid economic fundamentals
and a shortage of housing supply will, nonetheless, continue to support house
prices."
Northern Ireland records the strongest house price rise in 2007 Q2 ......
House prices increased in most regions during 2007 Q2. The biggest price rises
were in Northern Ireland (8.5%), Greater London (4.9%), the North (4.3%) and the
South East (4.2%). There were house price falls in the South West (-0.4%), West
Midlands (-1.1%) and Wales (-2.8%). These modest declines, however, should be
seen in the context of the substantial price rises recorded in all three areas
over the past five years: South West (63%), West Midlands (81%) and Wales
(116%).
Prices in Northern Ireland continue to be driven up sharply by a combination of
a strong local economy, high levels of immigration and high demand for
properties from second homebuyers and buy-to-let investors in the Republic of
Ireland.
Northern Ireland has also seen the biggest price increase over the past year ...
...
Northern Ireland has also recorded the biggest price rise in the UK over the
past year with an increase of 46.7%, taking the average price to #228,790 in
2007 Q2. Prices increased most slowly in the West Midlands (5.5%) and East
Midlands (6.6%) between 2006 Q2 and 2007 Q2.
Northern Ireland is now the most expensive part of the UK outside London and the
South East
The dramatic increase in house prices over the past few years means that only
London and the South East now have higher average house prices than Northern
Ireland. In early 2005, Scotland was the only part of the UK with lower average
house prices than Northern Ireland.
London has recorded the biggest price rises in Britain over the past year.....
Greater London (18.4%) has recorded the biggest increase in prices in Britain
during the last year, largely reflecting the strength of the capital's economy.
Average price in North goes above #150,000 ......
The average price in the North passed #150,000 for the first time in 2007 Q2,
reaching #155,188. Scotland (#140,262) and Yorkshire & the Humber (#149,051)
are the only parts of the UK where the average price remains below #150,000.
North/south divide in England widens......
The north/south divide in England has re-emerged over the past year. Greater
London (18.4%), the South East (14.0%), East Anglia (10.9%) and South West
(10.0%) have all recorded double digit house price growth since 2006 Q2. All
the other English regions have seen single digit growth over the period. As a
result, the difference between the average price in northern England1 and that
in the south1 has widened from #81,681 in 2006 Q2 to #103,451 in 2007 Q2.
Housing market activity continues to ease......
Mortgage approvals to fund house purchase in the three months to May were 4%
lower than in the preceding three months, continuing the downward trend
experienced since last autumn. (Source: Bank of England)
1 South defined as London, the South East, the South West and East Anglia. The
north of England defined as the rest of England i.e. North, North West,
Yorkshire & the Humber, West Midlands & East Midlands.
Higher rates and negative real income growth to cause house price inflation to
slow......
The increase in mortgages interest rates - both for fixed and variable products
- is curbing demand and will continue to act as a constraint over the coming
months.
Negative real income growth is also expected to weigh down on housing demand.
Real household disposable income - a measure of income after direct taxation and
adjusted for inflation - fell for the second successive quarter in 2007 Q1
(-0.3% in 2007 Q1 and -0.1% in 2006 Q4). This is the first time that real
income has declined in consecutive quarters since 1999. (Source: ONS).
Sound economic fundamentals......
A healthy economy and strong labour market continue to underpin housing demand.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is confirmed to have grown at above its long-term
average pace in the first quarter of 2007 with a quarterly 0.7% increase. The
UK economy is expected to have achieved its 60th consecutive quarter of rising
activity in 2007 Q2, extending the longest unbroken stretch on record. The
number of people in employment has increased by 87,000 over the past year,
taking the total to 29.01 million. (Source: ONS)
...and supply shortages to support house prices
A shortage of both new housebuilding and secondhand properties for sale
continues to support house prices. The stock of unsold property on estate
agents' books has fallen this year and remains well below its long-term
historical average. (Source: RICS)
NOTE: The 10.7% number is the quarterly year-on-year figure. This figure
provides a much better picture of underlying trends compared to a monthly
year-on-year number as it smoothes out any short-term fluctuations.
The Halifax House Price Index is prepared from information that we believe is
collated with care, but we do not make any statement as to its accuracy or
completeness. We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to edit or
discontinue the indices at any time for regulatory or other reasons. Persons
seeking to place reliance on the indices for their own or third party commercial
purposes do so at their own risk.
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
END
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