UPDATE: ADP Survey Finds Dec US Private-Sector Jobs Down 84K
06 Janeiro 2010 - 12:49PM
Dow Jones News
Private-sector jobs in the U.S. fell by 84,000 in December, the
smallest drop since March 2008, and service providers added jobs,
according to a national employment report published Wednesday by
payroll company Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) and
consultancy Macroeconomic Advisers.
The ADP loss is slightly below the 90,000 drop projected by
economists in a Dow Jones Newswires survey. The estimated change of
employment from October to November was revised by 24,000, from a
decline of 169,000 to a decline of 145,000.
"We're clearly moving now in the right direction," said Joel
Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, which compiles the
survey for ADP. He expects payrolls to turn positive in the first
quarter and gain strength in second half.
The ADP survey tallies only private-sector jobs, while the
Bureau of Labor Statistics' nonfarm payroll data, to be released
Friday, include government workers.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the BLS will report
December payrolls fell by only 10,000, following the 11,000 jobs
lost in November. The expected December loss would be the best
showing for the labor markets since December 2007, when jobs grew
120,000.
The December unemployment rate is projected to edge up to 10.1%
from 10.0%. Friday's report will include benchmark revisions to the
household survey which includes the unemployment rate.
Macroeconomic Advisers projects the jobless rate will peak above
10% in the first quarter and fall only slowly, remaining above 9%
by end-2010.
The latest ADP report showed large businesses with 500 employees
or more shed 34,000 jobs and medium-size businesses lost 25,000
workers in December. Small businesses that employ fewer than 50
workers cut 25,000 jobs.
Service-sector jobs added jobs, by 12,000, the first increase
since March 2008, while factory jobs dropped 43,000.
Prakken pointed out that the losses in both factory and
construction jobs in December were worse than in November,
highlighting the unevenness in hiring.
"You want to see cyclical components in employment rising to
feel very secure about the durability of the recovery," he
said.
Prakken also said nonfarm payrolls in the first half will be
skewed by government hiring of workers for the 2010 U.S.
Census.
ADP, of Roseland, N.J., said it processes payments of one in six
U.S. workers, while Macroeconomic Advisers, based in St. Louis, is
an economic-consulting firm.
In another Wednesday job report, outplacement firm Challenger,
Gray & Christmas said that the number of layoffs announced by
U.S. companies in December totaled 45,094, down 10% from November.
It was the lowest reading since December 2007, the starting date of
the recession.
-By Kathleen Madigan, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2466;
kathleen.madigan@dowjones.com
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