UPDATE: ADP Survey Suggests Good Gain In Friday's Payrolls Data
07 Março 2012 - 12:27PM
Dow Jones News
Private-business hiring in February was solid, according to a
report released Wednesday. The number suggests an equally strong
gain in Friday's payrolls report.
Private-sector jobs in the U.S. increased 216,000 last month,
according to a national employment report published by payroll
giant Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) and consultancy
Macroeconomic Advisers.
The gain was close to expectations of 215,000 put forth by
economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires.
The January data were revised to show a gain of 173,000 instead
of the 170,000 increase reported earlier.
ADP also announced revisions to the 2011 job numbers to reflect
new seasonal factors and regressional estimates to put the ADP data
closer in line with the Labor Department's payroll series. Even
with revisions, the data show the pace of private hiring improved
at the end of 2011.
The ADP survey tallies only private-sector jobs, while the
Bureau of Labor Statistics' nonfarm payroll data, to be released
Friday, include government workers.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expect total nonfarm
payrolls rose by a solid 213,000 slots in February.
The ADP measure is unlikely to cause economists to alter their
payrolls forecast.
Indeed, many economists remain skeptical about ADP's ability to
forecast the government's monthly payroll change. For instance
before revisions, in December the ADP number was 72,000 higher than
the Labor's number, and in January ADP undershot the BLS by
87,000.
However, economists at Nomura calculated the ADP and BLS numbers
are closest in Februarys, suggesting the solid ADP gain last month
is indicating a strong gain in Friday's employment report.
The February unemployment rate is expected to remain at
8.3%.
Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers that compiles
the data for ADP, notes the "steady drumbeat" of good jobs gains in
recent months is better than the "erratic gains" a year ago.
Even so, "we need to produce more jobs" to bring the
unemployment rate down by a significantly amount, he said.
The latest ADP report showed large businesses with 500 employees
or more added 20,000 employees to their staffs in February, while
medium-size businesses added 88,000 workers. As has been the case
in recent months, small businesses accounted for the bulk of new
hiring. Firms that employ fewer than 50 workers hired 108,000 new
workers--half the total gain.
Service-sector jobs increased by 170,000 last month, and factory
jobs increased 21,000.
Financial companies added 14,000 in February, the seventh
consecutive gain and the largest advance during the last two years.
Prakken said the improvement could be signaling a bottom for the
hard-hit sector.
ADP, of Roseland, N.J., says it processes payments of one in six
U.S. workers. Macroeconomic Advisers, based in St. Louis, is an
economic-consulting firm.
On Tuesday, TrimTabs Investment Research said only 149,000 new
jobs were created in February. TrimTab uses data on withholding tax
collections to estimate payrolls.
-By Kathleen Madigan, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2466;
kathleen.madigan@dowjones.com
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