Paychex Rises to a New 52-Week High - Analyst Blog
15 Abril 2013 - 5:30AM
Zacks
Shares of Paychex
Inc. (PAYX) reached a new 52-week high of $36.16 on
Thursday, Apr 11, 2013, following decent third-quarter 2013 results
announced on Mar 27, an improving job market, improvement in hiring
activities and better visibility for revenues per check.
The closing price of this payroll service provider on Apr 12, 2013
was $36.14, representing a decent one-year return of about 16.8%
and year-to-date return of about 13.5%. Average volume of shares
traded over the last three months stand at approximately 2759K.
Paychex delivered a positive earnings surprise in the last quarter
with an average beat of 2.5% for the past four quarters. This Zacks
Rank #3 (Hold) company has a market cap of $13.2 billion and a
long-term expected earnings growth rate of 9.2%.
Decent Third Quarter Results
Paychex reported earnings of 40 cents per share, beating the Zacks
Consensus Estimate by a penny and the year-ago level by 6.3%.
Revenues of $593.3 million grew 4.2% year over year and were
slightly above the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The revenue growth was
mainly due to higher checks per payroll and revenues per check,
client retention and client growth. Revenues from the Payroll
Service segment increased 1.9% year over year, while Human Resource
Services segment revenues grew 9.7% from the prior-year
quarter.
Operating margin improved 60 basis points to 43.0% buoyed by modest
revenue growth, better cost management and capacity
utilization.
For fiscal 2013, Paychex believes that Payroll Services revenue
growth will be supported by modest growth in client base and
improved revenue per check. Human Resources organic revenue growth
is expected to follow the historical trend. Paychex will continue
to invest heavily on product development.
Estimate Revision
Following the third-quarter results, the Zacks Consensus Estimate
for 2013 remained flat at $1.60. However, the estimate for 2014 was
up by a penny to $1.71, supported by 6 upward estimate revisions in
the past 30 days. One estimate each was revised downward for 2013
and 2014 over the past 30 days.
Conclusion
We believe that Paychex’ stock price will go up as employment in
the small and medium business (SMB) space is improving. A report
published by Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP)
indicates a likely momentum in the SMB market. Also, a survey
conducted by SurePayroll Inc. (acquired by Paychex in Feb 2011)
shows that roughly 50.0% of the SMBs are going to invest in hiring,
marketing and technology. This raises the chance of higher revenues
per checks and checks per payroll.
We are also encouraged by management’s commentary regarding
continued investments in product development and focus toward
building sales force to support revenue growth.
However, strict interest rates and stiff competition from ADP and
Insperity keep us concerned. However, Paychex’ zero European
exposure and growing customer base will be beneficial for the
company.
Other Stocks to Consider
Similar stocks that are currently performing well and have a solid
visibility include StarTek Inc. (SRT) with a Zacks
Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and Portfolio Recovery Associates
Inc. (PRAA) with a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
AUTOMATIC DATA (ADP): Free Stock Analysis Report
PAYCHEX INC (PAYX): Free Stock Analysis Report
PORTFOLIO RCVRY (PRAA): Free Stock Analysis Report
STARTEK INC (SRT): Free Stock Analysis Report
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