ITEM 2. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
The following discussion of our financial condition and results of operations should be read in conjunction with the financial statements and notes to those statements included in Item 1 of this Form 10-Q. The discussion may contain certain forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Forward-looking statements are those that are not historical in nature. As a result of many factors, such as those set forth under “Risk Factors” in our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K, our actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements.
Common Stock Reverse Split
On August 30, 2022, the Company effected a 1-for-5 reverse stock split of its common stock and proportionately decreased the number of authorized shares of common stock. All share and per share information has been retroactively adjusted to reflect the reverse split.
Overview
We are a specialty finance company that invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (“RMBS”) which are issued and guaranteed by a federally chartered corporation or agency (“Agency RMBS”). Our investment strategy focuses on, and our portfolio consists of, two categories of Agency RMBS: (i) traditional pass-through Agency RMBS, such as mortgage pass-through certificates issued by the Federal National Mortgage Association ("Fannie Mae"), the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation ("Freddie Mac" and together with Fannie Mae, the "Enterprises") or the Government National Mortgage Association ("Ginnie Mae" and, together with the Enterprises the “GSEs”) and collateralized mortgage obligations (“CMOs”) issued by the GSEs (“PT RMBS”) and (ii) structured Agency RMBS, such as interest-only securities (“IOs”), inverse interest-only securities (“IIOs”) and principal only securities (“POs”), among other types of structured Agency RMBS. We were formed by Bimini in August 2010, commenced operations on November 24, 2010 and completed our initial public offering (“IPO”) on February 20, 2013. We are externally managed by Bimini Advisors, an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”).
Our business objective is to provide attractive risk-adjusted total returns over the long term through a combination of capital appreciation and the payment of regular monthly distributions. We intend to achieve this objective by investing in and strategically allocating capital between the two categories of Agency RMBS described above. We seek to generate income from (i) the net interest margin on our leveraged PT RMBS portfolio and the leveraged portion of our structured Agency RMBS portfolio, and (ii) the interest income we generate from the unleveraged portion of our structured Agency RMBS portfolio. We intend to fund our PT RMBS and certain of our structured Agency RMBS through short-term borrowings structured as repurchase agreements. PT RMBS and structured Agency RMBS typically exhibit materially different sensitivities to movements in interest rates. Declines in the value of one portfolio may be offset by appreciation in the other. The percentage of capital that we allocate to our two Agency RMBS asset categories will vary and will be actively managed in an effort to maintain the level of income generated by the combined portfolios, the stability of that income stream and the stability of the value of the combined portfolios. We believe that this strategy will enhance our liquidity, earnings, book value stability and asset selection opportunities in various interest rate environments.
We operate so as to qualify to be taxed as a REIT under the Code. We generally will not be subject to U.S. federal income tax to the extent that we currently distribute all of our REIT taxable income (as defined in the Code) to our stockholders and maintain our REIT qualification.
The Company’s common stock trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol “ORC”.
Capital Raising Activities
On October 29, 2021, we entered into an equity distribution agreement (the “October 2021 Equity Distribution Agreement”) with four sales agents pursuant to which we could offer and sell, from time to time, up to an aggregate amount of $250,000,000 of shares of our common stock in transactions that were deemed to be “at the market” offerings and privately negotiated transactions. We issued a total of 9,742,188 shares under the October 2021 Equity Distribution Agreement for aggregate gross proceeds of approximately $151.8 million, and net proceeds of approximately $149.3 million, after commissions and fees, prior to its termination in March 2023.
On March 7, 2023, we entered into an equity distribution agreement (the “March 2023 Equity Distribution Agreement”) with three sales agents pursuant to which we may offer and sell, from time to time, up to an aggregate amount of $250,000,000 of shares of our common stock in transactions that are deemed to be “at the market” offerings and privately negotiated transactions. No shares have been issued under the March 2023 Equity Distribution Agreement through
March 31, 2023
.
Stock Repurchase Agreement
On July 29, 2015, the Company’s Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to 400,000 shares of our common stock. The timing, manner, price and amount of any repurchases is determined by the Company in its discretion and is subject to economic and market conditions, stock price, applicable legal requirements and other factors. The authorization does not obligate the Company to acquire any particular amount of common stock and the program may be suspended or discontinued at the Company’s discretion without prior notice. On February 8, 2018, the Board of Directors approved an increase in the stock repurchase program for up to an additional 904,564 shares of the Company’s common stock. Coupled with the 156,751 shares remaining from the original 400,000 share authorization, the increased authorization brought the total authorization to 1,061,316 shares, representing 10% of the Company’s then outstanding share count.
On December 9, 2021, the Board of Directors approved an increase in the number of shares of the Company’s common stock available in the stock repurchase program for up to an additional 3,372,399 shares, bringing the remaining authorization under the stock repurchase program to 3,539,861 shares, representing approximately 10% of the Company’s then outstanding shares of common stock.
On October 12, 2022, the Board of Directors approved an increase in the number of shares of the Company’s common stock available in the stock repurchase program for up to an additional 4,300,000 shares, bringing the remaining authorization under the stock repurchase program to 6,183,601 shares, representing approximately 18% of the Company’s then outstanding shares of common stock. This stock repurchase program has no termination date.
From the inception of the stock repurchase program through March 31, 2023, the Company repurchased a total of 4,048,613 shares at an aggregate cost of approximately $68.8 million, including commissions and fees, for a weighted average price of $16.99 per share. During the three months ended March 31, 2023, the Company repurchased a total of 373,041 shares of its common stock at an aggregate cost of approximately $4.0 million, including commissions and fees, for a weighted average price of $10.62 per share.
Factors that Affect our Results of Operations and Financial Condition
A variety of industry and economic factors may impact our results of operations and financial condition. These factors include:
|
|
increases in our cost of funds resulting from increases in the Federal Funds rate that are controlled by the Federal Reserve (the "Fed") that occurred in 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, and may continue to occur during 2023; |
|
● |
the difference between Agency RMBS yields and our funding and hedging costs; |
|
● |
competition for, and supply of, investments in Agency RMBS; |
|
● |
actions taken by the U.S. government, including the presidential administration, the Fed, the Federal Housing Financing Agency (the “FHFA”), The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation ("FDIC"), Federal Housing Administration (the “FHA”), the Federal Open Market Committee (the “FOMC”) and the U.S. Treasury; |
|
● |
prepayment rates on mortgages underlying our Agency RMBS and credit trends insofar as they affect prepayment rates; and |
|
● |
other market developments, including bank failures. |
In addition, a variety of factors relating to our business may also impact our results of operations and financial condition. These factors include:
|
● |
our degree of leverage; |
|
● |
our access to funding and borrowing capacity; |
|
● |
our hedging activities; |
|
● |
the market value of our investments; and |
|
● |
the requirements to qualify as a REIT and the requirements to qualify for a registration exemption under the Investment Company Act. |
Results of Operations
Described below are the Company’s results of operations for the three months ended March 31, 2023, as compared to the Company’s results of operations for the three months ended March 31, 2022.
Net Income (Loss) Summary
Net income for the three months ended March 31, 2023 was $3.5 million, or $0.09 per share. Net loss for the three months ended March 31, 2022 was $148.7 million, or $4.20 per share. The components of net (loss) income for the three months ended March 31, 2023 and 2022, along with the changes in those components are presented in the table below:
(in thousands) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Three Months Ended March 31, |
|
|
|
2023 |
|
|
2022 |
|
|
Change |
|
Interest income |
|
$ |
38,012 |
|
|
$ |
41,857 |
|
|
$ |
(3,845 |
) |
Interest expense |
|
|
(42,217 |
) |
|
|
(2,655 |
) |
|
|
(39,562 |
) |
Net interest expense |
|
|
(4,205 |
) |
|
|
39,202 |
|
|
|
(43,407 |
) |
Gains (losses) on RMBS and derivative contracts |
|
|
12,739 |
|
|
|
(183,550 |
) |
|
|
196,289 |
|
Net portfolio income (loss) |
|
|
8,534 |
|
|
|
(144,348 |
) |
|
|
152,882 |
|
Expenses |
|
|
(5,004 |
) |
|
|
(4,379 |
) |
|
|
(625 |
) |
Net income (loss) |
|
$ |
3,530 |
|
|
$ |
(148,727 |
) |
|
$ |
152,257 |
|
GAAP and Non-GAAP Reconciliations
In addition to the results presented in accordance with GAAP, our results of operations discussed below include certain non-GAAP financial information, including “Net Earnings Excluding Realized and Unrealized Gains and Losses”, “Economic Interest Expense” and “Economic Net Interest Income.”
Net Earnings Excluding Realized and Unrealized Gains and Losses
We have elected to account for our Agency RMBS under the fair value option. Securities held under the fair value option are recorded at estimated fair value, with changes in the fair value recorded as unrealized gains or losses through the statements of operations.
In addition, we have not designated our derivative financial instruments used for hedging purposes as hedges for accounting purposes, but rather hold them for economic hedging purposes. Changes in fair value of these instruments are presented in a separate line item in the Company’s statements of operations and are not included in interest expense. As such, for financial reporting purposes, interest expense and cost of funds are not impacted by the fluctuation in value of the derivative instruments.
Presenting net earnings excluding realized and unrealized gains and losses allows management to: (i) isolate the net interest income and other expenses of the Company over time, free of all fair value adjustments and (ii) assess the effectiveness of our funding and hedging strategies on our capital allocation decisions and our asset allocation performance. Our funding and hedging strategies, capital allocation and asset selection are integral to our risk management strategy, and therefore critical to the management of our portfolio. We believe that the presentation of our net earnings excluding realized and unrealized gains is useful to investors because it provides a means of comparing our results of operations to those of our peers who have not elected the same accounting treatment. Our presentation of net earnings excluding realized and unrealized gains and losses may not be comparable to similarly-titled measures of other companies, who may use different calculations. As a result, net earnings excluding realized and unrealized gains and losses should not be considered as a substitute for our GAAP net income (loss) as a measure of our financial performance or any measure of our liquidity under GAAP. The table below presents a reconciliation of our net income (loss) determined in accordance with GAAP and net earnings excluding realized and unrealized gains and losses.
Described below are the Company’s results of operations for the three months ended March 31, 2023, and for each quarter in 2022.
Net Earnings Excluding Realized and Unrealized Gains and Losses |
|
(in thousands, except per share data) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Per Share |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net Earnings |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net Earnings |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluding |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Excluding |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Realized and |
|
|
Realized and |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Realized and |
|
|
Realized and |
|
|
|
Net |
|
|
Unrealized |
|
|
Unrealized |
|
|
Net |
|
|
Unrealized |
|
|
Unrealized |
|
|
|
Income |
|
|
Gains and |
|
|
Gains and |
|
|
Income |
|
|
Gains and |
|
|
Gains and |
|
|
|
(GAAP) |
|
|
Losses(1) |
|
|
Losses |
|
|
(GAAP) |
|
|
Losses |
|
|
Losses |
|
Three Months Ended |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
March 31, 2023 |
|
$ |
3,530 |
|
|
$ |
12,739 |
|
|
$ |
(9,209 |
) |
|
$ |
0.09 |
|
|
$ |
0.33 |
|
|
$ |
(0.24 |
) |
December 31, 2022 |
|
|
34,926 |
|
|
|
36,727 |
|
|
|
(1,801 |
) |
|
|
0.95 |
|
|
|
1.00 |
|
|
|
(0.05 |
) |
September 30, 2022 |
|
|
(84,513 |
) |
|
|
(94,433 |
) |
|
|
9,920 |
|
|
|
(2.40 |
) |
|
|
(2.68 |
) |
|
|
0.28 |
|
June 30, 2022 |
|
|
(60,139 |
) |
|
|
(82,673 |
) |
|
|
22,534 |
|
|
|
(1.70 |
) |
|
|
(2.33 |
) |
|
|
0.63 |
|
March 31, 2022 |
|
|
(148,727 |
) |
|
|
(183,550 |
) |
|
|
34,823 |
|
|
|
(4.20 |
) |
|
|
(5.19 |
) |
|
|
0.99 |
|
(1) |
Includes realized and unrealized gains (losses) on RMBS and derivative financial instruments, including net interest income or expense on interest rate swaps. |
Prior to 2023, we included certain expenses related to our derivative instruments in 'Direct REIT operating expenses' in the statements of operations. Beginning in 2023, we have included these expenses in 'Gains (losses) on derivative and hedging instruments.' Prior period amounts have been reclassified to conform with the current presentation. The table below presents the effect of this reclassification for each quarter in 2022.
Realized and Unrealized Gains and Losses - Reclassification of Derivative Transaction Expenses |
|
(in thousands, except per share data) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net Earnings Excluding |
|
|
|
Realized and Unrealized |
|
|
Realized and Unrealized |
|
|
|
Gains and Losses |
|
|
Gains and Losses |
|
|
|
Prior |
|
|
Reclassified |
|
|
Current |
|
|
Prior |
|
|
Reclassified |
|
|
Current |
|
|
|
Presentation |
|
|
Expenses |
|
|
Presentation |
|
|
Presentation |
|
|
Expenses |
|
|
Presentation |
|
Three Months Ended |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
December 31, 2022 |
|
$ |
38,389 |
|
|
$ |
(1,662 |
) |
|
$ |
36,727 |
|
|
$ |
(3,463 |
) |
|
$ |
(1,662 |
) |
|
$ |
(1,801 |
) |
September 30, 2022 |
|
|
(93,544 |
) |
|
|
(889 |
) |
|
|
(94,433 |
) |
|
|
9,031 |
|
|
|
(889 |
) |
|
|
9,920 |
|
June 30, 2022 |
|
|
(82,282 |
) |
|
|
(391 |
) |
|
|
(82,673 |
) |
|
|
22,143 |
|
|
|
(391 |
) |
|
|
22,534 |
|
March 31, 2022 |
|
|
(183,232 |
) |
|
|
(318 |
) |
|
|
(183,550 |
) |
|
|
34,505 |
|
|
|
(318 |
) |
|
|
34,823 |
|
|
|
Per Share |
|
Three Months Ended |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
December 31, 2022 |
|
$ |
1.04 |
|
|
$ |
(0.04 |
) |
|
$ |
1.00 |
|
|
$ |
(0.09 |
) |
|
$ |
(0.04 |
) |
|
$ |
(0.05 |
) |
September 30, 2022 |
|
|
(2.66 |
) |
|
|
(0.02 |
) |
|
|
(2.68 |
) |
|
|
0.26 |
|
|
|
(0.02 |
) |
|
|
0.28 |
|
June 30, 2022 |
|
|
(2.32 |
) |
|
|
(0.01 |
) |
|
|
(2.33 |
) |
|
|
0.62 |
|
|
|
(0.01 |
) |
|
|
0.63 |
|
March 31, 2022 |
|
|
(5.18 |
) |
|
|
(0.01 |
) |
|
|
(5.19 |
) |
|
|
0.98 |
|
|
|
(0.01 |
) |
|
|
0.99 |
|
Economic Interest Expense and Economic Net Interest Income
We use derivative and other hedging instruments, specifically Fed Funds and T-Note futures contracts, short positions in U.S. Treasury securities, interest rate swaps and swaptions, to hedge a portion of the interest rate risk on repurchase agreements in a rising rate environment.
We have not elected to designate our derivative holdings for hedge accounting treatment. Changes in fair value of these instruments are presented in a separate line item in our statements of operations and not included in interest expense. As such, for financial reporting purposes, interest expense and cost of funds are not impacted by the fluctuation in value of the derivative instruments.
For the purpose of computing economic net interest income and ratios relating to cost of funds measures, GAAP interest expense has been adjusted to reflect the realized and unrealized gains or losses on certain derivative instruments the Company uses, specifically Eurodollar, Fed Funds and U.S. Treasury futures, and interest rate swaps and swaptions, that pertain to each period presented. We believe that adjusting our interest expense for the periods presented by the gains or losses on these derivative instruments would not accurately reflect our economic interest expense for these periods. The reason is that these derivative instruments may cover periods that extend into the future, not just the current period. Any realized or unrealized gains or losses on the instruments reflect the change in market value of the instrument caused by changes in underlying interest rates applicable to the term covered by the instrument, not just the current period. For each period presented, we have combined the effects of the derivative financial instruments in place for the respective period with the actual interest expense incurred on borrowings to reflect total economic interest expense for the applicable period. Interest expense, including the effect of derivative instruments for the period, is referred to as economic interest expense. Net interest income, when calculated to include the effect of derivative instruments for the period, is referred to as economic net interest income. This presentation includes gains or losses on all contracts in effect during the reporting period, covering the current period as well as periods in the future.
From time to time, we invest in TBAs, which are forward contracts for the purchase or sale of Agency RMBS at a predetermined price, face amount, issuer, coupon and stated maturity on an agreed-upon future date. The specific Agency RMBS to be delivered into the contract are not known until shortly before the settlement date. We may choose, prior to settlement, to move the settlement of these securities out to a later date by entering into a dollar roll transaction. The Agency RMBS purchased or sold for a forward settlement date are typically priced at a discount to equivalent securities settling in the current month. Consequently, forward purchases of Agency RMBS and dollar roll transactions represent a form of off-balance sheet financing. These TBAs are accounted for as derivatives and marked to market through the income statement. Gains or losses on TBAs are included with gains or losses on other derivative contracts and are not included in interest income for purposes of the discussions below.
We believe that economic interest expense and economic net interest income provide meaningful information to consider, in addition to the respective amounts prepared in accordance with GAAP. The non-GAAP measures help management to evaluate its financial position and performance without the effects of certain transactions and GAAP adjustments that are not necessarily indicative of our current investment portfolio or operations. The unrealized gains or losses on derivative instruments presented in our statements of operations are not necessarily representative of the total interest rate expense that we will ultimately realize. This is because as interest rates move up or down in the future, the gains or losses we ultimately realize, and which will affect our total interest rate expense in future periods, may differ from the unrealized gains or losses recognized as of the reporting date.
Our presentation of the economic value of our hedging strategy has important limitations. First, other market participants may calculate economic interest expense and economic net interest income differently than the way we calculate them. Second, while we believe that the calculation of the economic value of our hedging strategy described above helps to present our financial position and performance, it may be of limited usefulness as an analytical tool. Therefore, the economic value of our investment strategy should not be viewed in isolation and is not a substitute for interest expense and net interest income computed in accordance with GAAP.
The tables below present a reconciliation of the adjustments to interest expense shown for each period relative to our derivative instruments, and the income statement line item, gains (losses) on derivative instruments, calculated in accordance with GAAP for each quarter of 2023 to date and 2022.
Gains (Losses) on Derivative Instruments |
|
(in thousands) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Funding Hedges |
|
|
|
Recognized in |
|
|
TBA Securities |
|
|
Attributed to |
|
|
Attributed to |
|
|
|
Income |
|
|
Gain (Loss) |
|
|
Current |
|
|
Future |
|
|
|
Statement |
|
|
(Short |
|
|
(Long |
|
|
Period |
|
|
Periods |
|
|
|
(GAAP) |
|
|
Positions) |
|
|
Positions) |
|
|
(Non-GAAP) |
|
|
(Non-GAAP) |
|
Three Months Ended |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
March 31, 2023 |
|
$ |
(41,156 |
) |
|
$ |
(5,990 |
) |
|
$ |
- |
|
|
$ |
19,211 |
|
|
$ |
(54,377 |
) |
December 31, 2022 |
|
|
(12,319 |
) |
|
|
(9,700 |
) |
|
|
- |
|
|
|
9,414 |
|
|
|
(12,033 |
) |
September 30, 2022 |
|
|
183,930 |
|
|
|
10,642 |
|
|
|
106 |
|
|
|
4,154 |
|
|
|
169,028 |
|
June 30, 2022 |
|
|
103,367 |
|
|
|
1,013 |
|
|
|
1,067 |
|
|
|
1,605 |
|
|
|
99,682 |
|
March 31, 2022 |
|
|
177,498 |
|
|
|
2,539 |
|
|
|
27 |
|
|
|
(1,605 |
) |
|
|
176,537 |
|
The table below presents the effect of the reclassification of derivative expenses discussed above for each quarter in 2022.
Gains (Losses) on Derivative Instruments - Reclassification of Derivative Transaction Expenses |
|
|
|
|
|
(in thousands) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Recognized in Income Statement |
|
|
Attributed to Current Period |
|
|
|
Prior |
|
|
Reclassified |
|
|
Current |
|
|
Prior |
|
|
Reclassified |
|
|
Current |
|
|
|
Presentation |
|
|
Expenses |
|
|
Presentation |
|
|
Presentation |
|
|
Expenses |
|
|
Presentation |
|
Three Months Ended |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
December 31, 2022 |
|
$ |
(10,657 |
) |
|
$ |
1,662 |
|
|
$ |
(12,319 |
) |
|
$ |
11,076 |
|
|
$ |
1,662 |
|
|
$ |
9,414 |
|
September 30, 2022 |
|
|
184,819 |
|
|
|
889 |
|
|
|
183,930 |
|
|
|
5,043 |
|
|
|
889 |
|
|
|
4,154 |
|
June 30, 2022 |
|
|
103,758 |
|
|
|
391 |
|
|
|
103,367 |
|
|
|
1,996 |
|
|
|
391 |
|
|
|
1,605 |
|
March 31, 2022 |
|
|
177,816 |
|
|
|
318 |
|
|
|
177,498 |
|
|
|
(1,287 |
) |
|
|
318 |
|
|
|
(1,605 |
) |
Economic Interest Expense and Economic Net Interest Income |
|
(in thousands) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interest Expense on Borrowings |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gains |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(Losses) on |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Derivative |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Instruments |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net Interest Income |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GAAP |
|
|
Attributed |
|
|
Economic |
|
|
GAAP |
|
|
Economic |
|
|
|
Interest |
|
|
Interest |
|
|
to Current |
|
|
Interest |
|
|
Net Interest |
|
|
Net Interest |
|
|
|
Income |
|
|
Expense |
|
|
Period(1) |
|
|
Expense(2) |
|
|
Income |
|
|
Income(3) |
|
Three Months Ended |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
March 31, 2023 |
|
$ |
38,012 |
|
|
$ |
42,217 |
|
|
$ |
19,211 |
|
|
$ |
23,006 |
|
|
$ |
(4,205 |
) |
|
$ |
15,006 |
|
December 31, 2022 |
|
|
31,897 |
|
|
|
29,512 |
|
|
|
9,414 |
|
|
|
20,098 |
|
|
|
2,385 |
|
|
|
11,799 |
|
September 30, 2022 |
|
|
35,611 |
|
|
|
21,361 |
|
|
|
4,154 |
|
|
|
17,207 |
|
|
|
14,250 |
|
|
|
18,404 |
|
June 30, 2022 |
|
|
35,268 |
|
|
|
8,180 |
|
|
|
1,605 |
|
|
|
6,575 |
|
|
|
27,088 |
|
|
|
28,693 |
|
March 31, 2022 |
|
|
41,857 |
|
|
|
2,655 |
|
|
|
(1,605 |
) |
|
|
4,260 |
|
|
|
39,202 |
|
|
|
37,597 |
|
(1) |
Reflects the effect of derivative instrument hedges for only the period presented. |
(2) |
Calculated by adding the effect of derivative instrument hedges attributed to the period presented to GAAP interest expense. |
(3) |
Calculated by adding the effect of derivative instrument hedges attributed to the period presented to GAAP net interest income. |
Net Interest Income
During the three months ended March 31, 2023, we generated a net interest loss of $4.2 million consisting of $38.0 million of interest income from RMBS assets offset by $42.2 million of interest expense on borrowings. For the comparable period ended March 31, 2022, we generated $39.2 million of net interest income, consisting of $41.9 million of interest income from RMBS assets offset by $2.7 million of interest expense on borrowings. The $3.9 million decrease in interest income was due to a $1,775.9 million decrease in average RMBS, which was partially offset by a 101 basis point ("bps") increase in the yield on average RMBS. The $39.6 million increase in interest expense was due to a 452 bps increase in the average cost of funds, partially offset by a $1,780.2 million decrease in average outstanding borrowings.
On an economic basis, our interest expense on borrowings for the three months ended March 31, 2023 and 2022 was $23.0 million and $4.3 million, respectively, resulting in $15.0 million and $37.6 million of economic net interest income, respectively.
The tables below provide information on our portfolio average balances, interest income, yield on assets, average borrowings, interest expense, cost of funds, net interest income and net interest spread for the three months ended March 31, 2023 and each quarter of 2022 on both a GAAP and economic basis.
($ in thousands) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yield on |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interest Expense |
|
|
Average Cost of Funds |
|
|
|
RMBS |
|
|
Interest |
|
|
Average |
|
|
Average |
|
|
GAAP |
|
|
Economic |
|
|
GAAP |
|
|
Economic |
|
|
|
Held(1) |
|
|
Income |
|
|
RMBS |
|
|
Borrowings(1) |
|
|
Basis |
|
|
Basis(2) |
|
|
Basis |
|
|
Basis(3) |
|
Three Months Ended |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
March 31, 2023 |
|
$ |
3,769,954 |
|
|
$ |
38,012 |
|
|
|
4.03 |
% |
|
$ |
3,573,941 |
|
|
$ |
42,217 |
|
|
$ |
23,006 |
|
|
|
4.72 |
% |
|
|
2.57 |
% |
December 31, 2022 |
|
|
3,370,608 |
|
|
|
31,897 |
|
|
|
3.79 |
% |
|
|
3,256,153 |
|
|
|
29,512 |
|
|
|
20,098 |
|
|
|
3.63 |
% |
|
|
2.47 |
% |
September 30, 2022 |
|
|
3,571,037 |
|
|
|
35,611 |
|
|
|
3.99 |
% |
|
|
3,446,420 |
|
|
|
21,361 |
|
|
|
17,207 |
|
|
|
2.48 |
% |
|
|
2.00 |
% |
June 30, 2022 |
|
|
4,260,727 |
|
|
|
35,268 |
|
|
|
3.31 |
% |
|
|
4,111,544 |
|
|
|
8,180 |
|
|
|
6,575 |
|
|
|
0.80 |
% |
|
|
0.64 |
% |
March 31, 2022 |
|
|
5,545,844 |
|
|
|
41,857 |
|
|
|
3.02 |
% |
|
|
5,354,107 |
|
|
|
2,655 |
|
|
|
4,260 |
|
|
|
0.20 |
% |
|
|
0.32 |
% |
($ in thousands) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net Interest Income |
|
|
Net Interest Spread |
|
|
|
GAAP |
|
|
Economic |
|
|
GAAP |
|
|
Economic |
|
|
|
Basis |
|
|
Basis(2) |
|
|
Basis |
|
|
Basis(4) |
|
Three Months Ended |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
March 31, 2023 |
|
$ |
(4,205 |
) |
|
$ |
15,006 |
|
|
|
(0.69 |
)% |
|
|
1.46 |
% |
December 31, 2022 |
|
|
2,385 |
|
|
|
11,799 |
|
|
|
0.16 |
% |
|
|
1.32 |
% |
September 30, 2022 |
|
|
14,250 |
|
|
|
18,404 |
|
|
|
1.51 |
% |
|
|
1.99 |
% |
June 30, 2022 |
|
|
27,088 |
|
|
|
28,693 |
|
|
|
2.51 |
% |
|
|
2.67 |
% |
March 31, 2022 |
|
|
39,202 |
|
|
|
37,597 |
|
|
|
2.82 |
% |
|
|
2.70 |
% |
(1) |
Portfolio yields and costs of borrowings presented in the tables above and the tables on pages 30-31 are calculated based on the average balances of the underlying investment portfolio/borrowings balances and are annualized for the periods presented. Average balances for quarterly periods are calculated using two data points, the beginning and ending balances. |
(2) |
Economic interest expense and economic net interest income presented in the table above and the tables on page 31 includes the effect of our derivative instrument hedges for only the periods presented. |
(3) |
Represents interest cost of our borrowings and the effect of derivative instrument hedges attributed to the period divided by average RMBS. |
(4) |
Economic net interest spread is calculated by subtracting average economic cost of funds from realized yield on average RMBS. |
Interest Income and Average Asset Yield
Our interest income for the three months ended March 31, 2023 and 2022 was $38.0 million and $41.9 million, respectively. We had average RMBS holdings of $3,770.0 million and $5,545.8 million for the three months ended March 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively. The yield on our portfolio was 4.03% and 3.02% for the three months ended March 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively. For the three months ended March 31, 2023, as compared to the three months ended March 31, 2022, there was a $3.9 million decrease in interest income due to the $1,775.9 million decrease in average RMBS that was partially offset by the 101 bps increase in the yield on average RMBS.
The table below presents the average portfolio size, income and yields of our respective sub-portfolios, consisting of structured RMBS and PT RMBS, for the three months ended March 31, 2023 and each quarter of 2022.
($ in thousands) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average RMBS Held |
|
|
Interest Income |
|
|
Realized Yield on Average RMBS |
|
|
|
PT |
|
|
Structured |
|
|
|
|
|
|
PT |
|
|
Structured |
|
|
|
|
|
|
PT |
|
|
Structured |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RMBS |
|
|
RMBS |
|
|
Total |
|
|
RMBS |
|
|
RMBS |
|
|
Total |
|
|
RMBS |
|
|
RMBS |
|
|
Total |
|
Three Months Ended |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
March 31, 2023 |
|
$ |
3,750,184 |
|
|
$ |
19,770 |
|
|
$ |
3,769,954 |
|
|
$ |
37,594 |
|
|
$ |
418 |
|
|
$ |
38,012 |
|
|
|
4.01 |
% |
|
|
8.44 |
% |
|
|
4.03 |
% |
December 31, 2022 |
|
|
3,335,154 |
|
|
|
35,454 |
|
|
|
3,370,608 |
|
|
|
31,204 |
|
|
|
693 |
|
|
|
31,897 |
|
|
|
3.74 |
% |
|
|
7.83 |
% |
|
|
3.79 |
% |
September 30, 2022 |
|
|
3,458,277 |
|
|
|
112,760 |
|
|
|
3,571,037 |
|
|
|
32,297 |
|
|
|
3,314 |
|
|
|
35,611 |
|
|
|
3.74 |
% |
|
|
11.75 |
% |
|
|
3.99 |
% |
June 30, 2022 |
|
|
4,069,334 |
|
|
|
191,393 |
|
|
|
4,260,727 |
|
|
|
31,894 |
|
|
|
3,374 |
|
|
|
35,268 |
|
|
|
3.14 |
% |
|
|
7.05 |
% |
|
|
3.31 |
% |
March 31, 2022 |
|
|
5,335,353 |
|
|
|
210,491 |
|
|
|
5,545,844 |
|
|
|
40,066 |
|
|
|
1,791 |
|
|
|
41,857 |
|
|
|
3.00 |
% |
|
|
3.40 |
% |
|
|
3.02 |
% |
Interest Expense and the Cost of Funds
We had average outstanding borrowings of $3,573.9 million and $5,354.1 million and total interest expense of $42.2 million and $2.7 million for the three months ended March 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively. Our average cost of funds was 4.72% for the three months ended March 31, 2023, compared to 0.20% for the comparable period in 2022. The $39.6 million increase in interest expense was due to the 452 bps increase in the average cost of funds, partially offset by the $1,780.2 million decrease in average outstanding borrowings during the three months ended March 31, 2023, as compared to the three months ended March 31, 2022.
Our economic interest expense was $23.0 million and $4.3 million for the three months ended March 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively. There was a 225 bps increase in the average economic cost of funds to 2.57% for the three months ended March 31, 2023, from 0.32% for the three months ended March 31, 2022.
Since all of our repurchase agreements are short-term, changes in market rates directly affect our interest expense. Our average cost of funds calculated on a GAAP basis was 9 bps above the one-month average SOFR and 63 bps above the six-month average SOFR for the quarter ended March 31, 2023. Our average economic cost of funds was 206 bps below the one-month average SOFR and 152 bps below the six-month average SOFR for the quarter ended March 31, 2023. The average term to maturity of the outstanding repurchase agreements was 30 days at March 31, 2023 and 27 days at December 31, 2022.
The tables below present the average balance of borrowings outstanding, interest expense and average cost of funds, and average one-month and six-month SOFR rates for the three months ended March 31, 2023 and for each quarter in 2022, on both a GAAP and economic basis.
($ in thousands) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
|
|
Interest Expense |
|
|
Average Cost of Funds |
|
|
|
Balance of |
|
|
GAAP |
|
|
Economic |
|
|
GAAP |
|
|
Economic |
|
|
|
Borrowings |
|
|
Basis |
|
|
Basis |
|
|
Basis |
|
|
Basis |
|
Three Months Ended |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
March 31, 2023 |
|
$ |
3,573,941 |
|
|
$ |
42,217 |
|
|
$ |
23,006 |
|
|
|
4.72 |
% |
|
|
2.57 |
% |
December 31, 2022 |
|
|
3,256,153 |
|
|
|
29,512 |
|
|
|
20,098 |
|
|
|
3.63 |
% |
|
|
2.47 |
% |
September 30, 2022 |
|
|
3,446,420 |
|
|
|
21,361 |
|
|
|
17,207 |
|
|
|
2.48 |
% |
|
|
2.00 |
% |
June 30, 2022 |
|
|
4,111,544 |
|
|
|
8,180 |
|
|
|
6,575 |
|
|
|
0.80 |
% |
|
|
0.64 |
% |
March 31, 2022 |
|
|
5,354,107 |
|
|
|
2,655 |
|
|
|
4,260 |
|
|
|
0.20 |
% |
|
|
0.32 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average GAAP Cost of Funds |
|
|
Average Economic Cost of Funds |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Relative to Average |
|
|
Relative to Average |
|
|
|
Average SOFR |
|
|
One-Month |
|
|
Six-Month |
|
|
One-Month |
|
|
Six-Month |
|
|
|
One-Month |
|
|
Six-Month |
|
|
SOFR |
|
|
SOFR |
|
|
SOFR |
|
|
SOFR |
|
Three Months Ended |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
March 31, 2023 |
|
|
4.63 |
% |
|
|
4.09 |
% |
|
|
0.09 |
% |
|
|
0.63 |
% |
|
|
(2.06 |
)% |
|
|
(1.52 |
)% |
December 31, 2022 |
|
|
4.06 |
% |
|
|
2.89 |
% |
|
|
(0.43 |
)% |
|
|
0.74 |
% |
|
|
(1.59 |
)% |
|
|
(0.42 |
)% |
September 30, 2022 |
|
|
2.47 |
% |
|
|
1.43 |
% |
|
|
0.01 |
% |
|
|
1.05 |
% |
|
|
(0.47 |
)% |
|
|
0.57 |
% |
June 30, 2022 |
|
|
1.09 |
% |
|
|
0.39 |
% |
|
|
(0.29 |
)% |
|
|
0.41 |
% |
|
|
(0.45 |
)% |
|
|
0.25 |
% |
March 31, 2022 |
|
|
0.16 |
% |
|
|
0.07 |
% |
|
|
0.04 |
% |
|
|
0.13 |
% |
|
|
0.16 |
% |
|
|
0.25 |
% |
Gains or Losses
The table below presents our gains or losses for the three months ended March 31, 2023 and 2022.
(in thousands) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Three Months Ended March 31, |
|
|
|
2023 |
|
|
2022 |
|
|
Change |
|
Realized losses on sales of RMBS |
|
$ |
- |
|
|
$ |
(51,086 |
) |
|
$ |
51,086 |
|
Unrealized gains (losses) on RMBS and U.S. Treasury Notes |
|
|
53,895 |
|
|
|
(309,962 |
) |
|
|
363,857 |
|
Total gains (losses) on RMBS and U.S. Treasury Notes |
|
|
53,895 |
|
|
|
(361,048 |
) |
|
|
414,943 |
|
(Losses) gains on interest rate futures |
|
|
(4,038 |
) |
|
|
79,691 |
|
|
|
(83,729 |
) |
(Losses) gains on interest rate swaps |
|
|
(26,144 |
) |
|
|
66,170 |
|
|
|
(92,314 |
) |
Gains (losses) on payer swaptions (short positions) |
|
|
6,585 |
|
|
|
(10,908 |
) |
|
|
17,493 |
|
(Losses) gains on payer swaptions (long positions) |
|
|
(12,109 |
) |
|
|
40,975 |
|
|
|
(53,084 |
) |
Losses on interest rate caps |
|
|
(645 |
) |
|
|
(996 |
) |
|
|
351 |
|
Gains (losses) on interest rate floors |
|
|
1,185 |
|
|
|
- |
|
|
|
1,185 |
|
(Losses) gains on TBA securities (short positions) |
|
|
(5,990 |
) |
|
|
2,539 |
|
|
|
(8,529 |
) |
(Losses) gains on TBA securities (long positions) |
|
|
- |
|
|
|
27 |
|
|
|
(27 |
) |
Total (losses) gains from derivative instruments |
|
$ |
(41,156 |
) |
|
$ |
177,498 |
|
|
$ |
(218,654 |
) |
We invest in RMBS with the intent to earn net income from the realized yield on those assets over their related funding and hedging costs, and not for the purpose of making short term gains from sales. However, we have sold, and may continue to sell, existing assets to acquire new assets, which our management believes might have higher risk-adjusted returns in light of current or anticipated interest rates, federal government programs or general economic conditions or to manage our balance sheet as part of our asset/liability management strategy. During the three months ended March 31, 2022, we received proceeds of $1,413.0 million from the sales of RMBS. We did not sell any RMBS during the three months ended March 31, 2023.
Realized and unrealized gains and losses on RMBS are driven in part by changes in yields and interest rates, the spreads that Agency RMBS trade relative to comparable duration U.S. Treasuries or swaps, as well as varying levels of demand for RMBS, which affect the pricing of the securities in our portfolio. The unrealized gains and losses on RMBS may also include the premium lost as a result of prepayments on the underlying mortgages, decreasing unrealized gains or increasing unrealized losses as prepayment speeds or premiums increase. To the extent RMBS are carried at a discount to par, unrealized gains or losses on RMBS would also include discount accreted as a result of prepayments on the underlying mortgages, increasing unrealized gains or decreasing unrealized losses as speeds on discounts increase. Gains and losses on interest rate futures contracts are affected by changes in implied forward rates during the reporting period. The table below presents historical interest rate data for each quarter end during 2023 to date and 2022.
|
|
5 Year |
|
|
10 Year |
|
|
15 Year |
|
|
30 Year |
|
|
90 Day |
|
|
|
U.S. Treasury |
|
|
U.S. Treasury |
|
|
Fixed-Rate |
|
|
Fixed-Rate |
|
|
Average |
|
|
|
Rate(1) |
|
|
Rate(1) |
|
|
Mortgage Rate(2) |
|
|
Mortgage Rate(2) |
|
|
SOFR(3) |
|
March 31, 2023 |
|
|
3.61 |
% |
|
|
3.49 |
% |
|
|
5.56 |
% |
|
|
6.32 |
% |
|
|
4.51 |
% |
December 31, 2022 |
|
|
4.00 |
% |
|
|
3.88 |
% |
|
|
5.68 |
% |
|
|
6.42 |
% |
|
|
3.62 |
% |
September 30, 2022 |
|
|
4.04 |
% |
|
|
3.80 |
% |
|
|
5.35 |
% |
|
|
6.11 |
% |
|
|
3.45 |
% |
June 30, 2022 |
|
|
3.00 |
% |
|
|
2.97 |
% |
|
|
4.65 |
% |
|
|
5.52 |
% |
|
|
1.97 |
% |
March 31, 2022 |
|
|
2.42 |
% |
|
|
2.33 |
% |
|
|
3.39 |
% |
|
|
4.17 |
% |
|
|
0.84 |
% |
(1) |
Historical 5 and 10 Year U.S. Treasury Rates are obtained from quoted end of day prices on the Chicago Board Options Exchange. |
(2) |
Historical 30 Year and 15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Rates are obtained from Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. |
(3) |
Historical SOFR is obtained from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. |
Expenses
For the three months ended March 31, 2023, the Company’s total operating expenses were approximately $5.0 million compared to approximately $4.4 million for the three months ended March 31, 2022. The table below presents a breakdown of operating expenses for the three months ended March 31, 2023 and 2022.
(in thousands) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Three Months Ended March 31, |
|
|
|
2023 |
|
|
2022 |
|
|
Change |
|
Management fees |
|
$ |
2,642 |
|
|
$ |
2,634 |
|
|
$ |
8 |
|
Overhead allocation |
|
|
576 |
|
|
|
441 |
|
|
|
135 |
|
Accrued incentive compensation |
|
|
470 |
|
|
|
237 |
|
|
|
233 |
|
Directors fees and liability insurance |
|
|
323 |
|
|
|
311 |
|
|
|
12 |
|
Audit, legal and other professional fees |
|
|
451 |
|
|
|
304 |
|
|
|
147 |
|
Direct REIT operating expenses |
|
|
165 |
|
|
|
325 |
|
|
|
(160 |
) |
Other administrative |
|
|
377 |
|
|
|
127 |
|
|
|
250 |
|
Total expenses |
|
$ |
5,004 |
|
|
$ |
4,379 |
|
|
$ |
625 |
|
We are externally managed and advised by Bimini Advisors, LLC (the “Manager”) pursuant to the terms of a management agreement. The management agreement has been renewed through February 20, 2024 and provides for automatic one-year extension options thereafter and is subject to certain termination rights. Under the terms of the management agreement, the Manager is responsible for administering the business activities and day-to-day operations of the Company. The Manager receives a monthly management fee in the amount of:
|
● |
One-twelfth of 1.5% of the first $250 million of the Company’s month end equity, as defined in the management agreement, |
|
● |
One-twelfth of 1.25% of the Company’s month end equity that is greater than $250 million and less than or equal to $500 million, and |
|
● |
One-twelfth of 1.00% of the Company’s month end equity that is greater than $500 million. |
The Company is obligated to reimburse the Manager for any direct expenses incurred on its behalf and to pay the Manager the Company’s pro rata portion of certain overhead costs set forth in the management agreement.
On April 1, 2022, pursuant to the third amendment to the management agreement entered into on November 16, 2021, the Manager began providing certain repurchase agreement trading, clearing and administrative services to the Company that had been previously provided by AVM, L.P. under an agreement terminated on March 31, 2022. In consideration for such services, the Company will pay the following fees to the Manager:
|
● |
A daily fee equal to the outstanding principal balance of repurchase agreement funding in place as of the end of such day multiplied by 1.5 basis points for the amount of aggregate outstanding principal balance less than or equal to $5 billion, and multiplied by 1.0 basis point for any amount of aggregate outstanding principal balance in excess of $5 billion, and |
|
● |
A fee for the clearing and operational services provided by personnel of the Manager equal to $10,000 per month. |
Should the Company terminate the management agreement without cause, it will pay the Manager a termination fee equal to three times the average annual management fee, as defined in the management agreement, before or on the last day of the term of the agreement.Table of Contents
The following table summarizes the management fee and overhead allocation expenses for the three months ended March 31, 2023 and for each quarter in 2022.
($ in thousands) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
|
|
Average |
|
|
Advisory Services |
|
|
|
Orchid |
|
|
Orchid |
|
|
Management |
|
|
Overhead |
|
|
|
|
|
Three Months Ended |
|
MBS |
|
|
Equity |
|
|
Fee |
|
|
Allocation |
|
|
Total |
|
March 31, 2023 |
|
$ |
3,769,954 |
|
|
$ |
865,722 |
|
|
$ |
2,642 |
|
|
$ |
576 |
|
|
$ |
3,218 |
|
December 31, 2022 |
|
|
3,370,608 |
|
|
|
823,516 |
|
|
|
2,566 |
|
|
|
560 |
|
|
|
3,126 |
|
September 30, 2022 |
|
|
3,571,037 |
|
|
|
839,935 |
|
|
|
2,616 |
|
|
|
522 |
|
|
|
3,138 |
|
June 30, 2022 |
|
|
4,260,727 |
|
|
|
866,539 |
|
|
|
2,631 |
|
|
|
519 |
|
|
|
3,150 |
|
March 31, 2022 |
|
|
5,545,844 |
|
|
|
853,576 |
|
|
|
2,634 |
|
|
|
441 |
|
|
|
3,075 |
|
Financial Condition:
Mortgage-Backed Securities
As of March 31, 2023, our RMBS portfolio consisted of $3,999.9 million of Agency RMBS at fair value and had a weighted average coupon on assets of 3.55%. During the three months ended March 31, 2023, we received principal repayments of $61.0 million compared to $157.1 million for the three months ended March 31, 2022. The average three month prepayment speeds for the quarters ended March 31, 2023 and 2022 were 4.0% and 10.7%, respectively.
The following table presents the 3-month constant prepayment rate (“CPR”) experienced on our structured and PT RMBS sub-portfolios, on an annualized basis, for the quarterly periods presented. CPR is a method of expressing the prepayment rate for a mortgage pool that assumes that a constant fraction of the remaining principal is prepaid each month or year. Specifically, the CPR in the chart below represents the three month prepayment rate of the securities in the respective asset category.
|
|
|
|
|
Structured |
|
|
|
|
|
|
PT RMBS |
|
|
RMBS |
|
|
Total |
|
Three Months Ended |
|
Portfolio (%) |
|
|
Portfolio (%) |
|
|
Portfolio (%) |
|
March 31, 2023 |
|
3.9 |
|
|
5.7 |
|
|
4.0 |
|
December 31, 2022 |
|
4.9 |
|
|
6.0 |
|
|
5.0 |
|
September 30, 2022 |
|
6.1 |
|
|
10.4 |
|
|
6.5 |
|
June 30, 2022 |
|
8.3 |
|
|
13.7 |
|
|
9.4 |
|
March 31, 2022 |
|
8.1 |
|
|
19.5 |
|
|
10.7 |
|
The following tables summarize certain characteristics of the Company’s PT RMBS and structured RMBS as of March 31, 2023 and December 31, 2022:
($ in thousands) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Weighted |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Percentage |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
of |
|
|
Weighted |
|
|
Maturity |
|
|
|
|
Fair |
|
|
Entire |
|
|
Average |
|
|
in |
|
Longest |
Asset Category |
|
Value |
|
|
Portfolio |
|
|
Coupon |
|
|
Months |
|
Maturity |
March 31, 2023 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fixed Rate RMBS |
|
$ |
3,980,462 |
|
|
|
99.5 |
% |
|
|
3.56 |
% |
|
|
338 |
|
1-Feb-53 |
Interest-Only Securities |
|
|
18,962 |
|
|
|
0.5 |
% |
|
|
4.01 |
% |
|
|
231 |
|
25-Jul-48 |
Inverse Interest-Only Securities |
|
|
482 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
% |
|
|
0.00 |
% |
|
|
283 |
|
15-Jun-42 |
Total Mortgage Assets |
|
$ |
3,999,906 |
|
|
|
100.0 |
% |
|
|
3.55 |
% |
|
|
335 |
|
1-Feb-53 |
December 31, 2022 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fixed Rate RMBS |
|
$ |
3,519,906 |
|
|
|
99.4 |
% |
|
|
3.47 |
% |
|
|
339 |
|
1-Nov-52 |
Interest-Only Securities |
|
|
19,669 |
|
|
|
0.6 |
% |
|
|
4.01 |
% |
|
|
234 |
|
25-Jul-48 |
Inverse Interest-Only Securities |
|
|
427 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
% |
|
|
0.00 |
% |
|
|
286 |
|
15-Jun-42 |
Total Mortgage Assets |
|
$ |
3,540,002 |
|
|
|
100.0 |
% |
|
|
3.46 |
% |
|
|
336 |
|
1-Nov-52 |
($ in thousands) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
March 31, 2023 |
|
|
December 31, 2022 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Percentage of |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Percentage of |
|
Agency |
|
Fair Value |
|
|
Entire Portfolio |
|
|
Fair Value |
|
|
Entire Portfolio |
|
Fannie Mae |
|
$ |
2,630,153 |
|
|
|
65.8 |
% |
|
$ |
2,320,960 |
|
|
|
65.6 |
% |
Freddie Mac |
|
|
1,369,753 |
|
|
|
34.2 |
% |
|
|
1,219,042 |
|
|
|
34.4 |
% |
Total Portfolio |
|
$ |
3,999,906 |
|
|
|
100.0 |
% |
|
$ |
3,540,002 |
|
|
|
100.0 |
% |
|
|
March 31, 2023 |
|
|
December 31, 2022 |
|
Weighted Average Pass-through Purchase Price |
|
$ |
105.59 |
|
|
$ |
106.41 |
|
Weighted Average Structured Purchase Price |
|
$ |
18.74 |
|
|
$ |
18.74 |
|
Weighted Average Pass-through Current Price |
|
$ |
93.32 |
|
|
$ |
91.46 |
|
Weighted Average Structured Current Price |
|
$ |
14.02 |
|
|
$ |
14.05 |
|
Effective Duration (1) |
|
|
5.500 |
|
|
|
5.580 |
|
(1) |
Effective duration is the approximate percentage change in price for a 100 bps change in rates. An effective duration of 5.500 indicates that an interest rate increase of 1.0% would be expected to cause a 5.500% decrease in the value of the RMBS in the Company’s investment portfolio at March 31, 2023. An effective duration of 5.580 indicates that an interest rate increase of 1.0% would be expected to cause a 5.580% decrease in the value of the RMBS in the Company’s investment portfolio at December 31, 2022. These figures include the structured securities in the portfolio, but do not include the effect of the Company’s funding cost hedges. Effective duration quotes for individual investments are obtained from The Yield Book, Inc. |
The following table presents a summary of portfolio assets acquired during the three months ended March 31, 2023 and 2022, including securities purchased during the period that settled after the end of the period, if any.
($ in thousands) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2023 |
|
|
2022 |
|
|
|
Total Cost |
|
|
Average Price |
|
|
Weighted Average Yield |
|
|
Total Cost |
|
|
Average Price |
|
|
Weighted Average Yield |
|
Pass-through RMBS |
|
$ |
467,460 |
|
|
$ |
97.97 |
|
|
|
4.59 |
% |
|
$ |
- |
|
|
$ |
- |
|
|
|
- |
|
Structured RMBS |
|
|
- |
|
|
|
- |
|
|
|
- |
|
|
|
- |
|
|
|
- |
|
|
|
- |
|
Borrowings
As of March 31, 2023, we had established borrowing facilities in the repurchase agreement market with a number of commercial banks and other financial institutions and had borrowings in place with 20 of these counterparties. None of these lenders are affiliated with the Company. These borrowings are secured by the Company’s RMBS and cash, and bear interest at prevailing market rates. We believe our established repurchase agreement borrowing facilities provide borrowing capacity in excess of our needs.
As of March 31, 2023, we had obligations outstanding under the repurchase agreements of approximately $3,769.4 million with a net weighted average borrowing cost of 4.90%. The remaining maturity of our outstanding repurchase agreement obligations ranged from 3 to 154 days, with a weighted average remaining maturity of 30 days. Securing the repurchase agreement obligations as of March 31, 2023 are RMBS with an estimated fair value, including accrued interest, of approximately $3,959.0 million and a weighted average maturity of 343 months, and cash pledged to counterparties of approximately $18.1 million. Through April 28, 2023, we have been able to maintain our repurchase facilities with comparable terms to those that existed at March 31, 2023, with maturities through September 1, 2023.
The table below presents information about our period end, maximum and average balances of borrowings for each quarter in 2023 to date and 2022.
($ in thousands) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Difference Between Ending |
|
|
|
|
Ending |
|
|
Maximum |
|
|
Average |
|
|
Borrowings and |
|
|
|
|
Balance of |
|
|
Balance of |
|
|
Balance of |
|
|
Average Borrowings |
|
|
Three Months Ended |
|
Borrowings |
|
|
Borrowings |
|
|
Borrowings |
|
|
Amount |
|
|
Percent |
|
|
March 31, 2023 |
|
$ |
3,769,437 |
|
|
$ |
3,849,137 |
|
|
$ |
3,573,941 |
|
|
$ |
195,496 |
|
|
|
5.47 |
% |
|
December 31, 2022 |
|
|
3,378,445 |
|
|
|
3,414,950 |
|
|
|
3,256,153 |
|
|
|
122,292 |
|
|
|
3.76 |
% |
|
September 30, 2022 |
|
|
3,133,861 |
|
|
|
4,047,606 |
|
|
|
3,446,420 |
|
|
|
(312,559 |
) |
|
|
(9.07 |
)% |
|
June 30, 2022 |
|
|
3,758,980 |
|
|
|
4,464,544 |
|
|
|
4,111,544 |
|
|
|
(352,564 |
) |
|
|
(8.57 |
)% |
|
March 31, 2022 |
|
|
4,464,109 |
|
|
|
6,244,106 |
|
|
|
5,354,107 |
|
|
|
(889,998 |
) |
|
|
(16.62 |
)% |
(1) |
(1) |
The lower ending balance relative to the average balance during the quarter ended March 31, 2022 reflects the disposal of RMBS pledged as collateral. During the quarter ended March 31, 2022, the Company’s investment in RMBS decreased $510.4 million. |
Liquidity and Capital Resources
Liquidity is our ability to turn non-cash assets into cash, purchase additional investments, repay principal and interest on borrowings, fund overhead, fulfill margin calls and pay dividends. We have both internal and external sources of liquidity. However, our material unused sources of liquidity include cash balances, unencumbered assets and our ability to sell encumbered assets to raise cash. Our balance sheet also generates liquidity on an on-going basis through payments of principal and interest we receive on our RMBS portfolio. Management believes that we currently have sufficient liquidity and capital resources available for (a) the acquisition of additional investments consistent with the size and nature of our existing RMBS portfolio, (b) the repayments on borrowings and (c) the payment of dividends to the extent required for our continued qualification as a REIT. We may also generate liquidity from time to time by selling our equity or debt securities in public offerings or private placements.
Internal Sources of Liquidity
Our internal sources of liquidity include our cash balances, unencumbered assets and our ability to liquidate our encumbered security holdings. Our balance sheet also generates liquidity on an on-going basis through payments of principal and interest we receive on our RMBS portfolio. Because our PT RMBS portfolio consists entirely of government and agency securities, we do not anticipate having difficulty converting our assets to cash should our liquidity needs ever exceed our immediately available sources of cash. Our structured RMBS portfolio also consists entirely of governmental agency securities, although they typically do not trade with comparable bid / ask spreads as PT RMBS. However, we anticipate that we would be able to liquidate such securities readily, even in distressed markets, although we would likely do so at prices below where such securities could be sold in a more stable market. To enhance our liquidity even further, we may pledge a portion of our structured RMBS as part of a repurchase agreement funding, but retain the cash in lieu of acquiring additional assets. In this way we can, at a modest cost, retain higher levels of cash on hand and decrease the likelihood we will have to sell assets in a distressed market in order to raise cash.
Our strategy for hedging our funding costs typically involves taking short positions in interest rate futures, treasury futures, interest rate swaps, interest rate swaptions or other instruments. When the market causes these short positions to decline in value we are required to meet margin calls with cash. This can reduce our liquidity position to the extent other securities in our portfolio move in price in such a way that we do not receive enough cash via margin calls to offset the derivative related margin calls. If this were to occur in sufficient magnitude, the loss of liquidity might force us to reduce the size of the levered portfolio, pledge additional structured securities to raise funds or risk operating the portfolio with less liquidity.
External Sources of Liquidity
Our primary external sources of liquidity are our ability to (i) borrow under master repurchase agreements, (ii) use the TBA security market and (iii) sell our equity or debt securities in public offerings or private placements. Our borrowing capacity will vary over time as the market value of our interest earning assets varies. Our master repurchase agreements have no stated expiration, but can be terminated at any time at our option or at the option of the counterparty. However, once a definitive repurchase agreement under a master repurchase agreement has been entered into, it generally may not be terminated by either party. A negotiated termination can occur, but may involve a fee to be paid by the party seeking to terminate the repurchase agreement transaction.
Under our repurchase agreement funding arrangements, we are required to post margin at the initiation of the borrowing. The margin posted represents the haircut, which is a percentage of the market value of the collateral pledged. To the extent the market value of the asset collateralizing the financing transaction declines, the market value of our posted margin will be insufficient and we will be required to post additional collateral. Conversely, if the market value of the asset pledged increases in value, we would be over collateralized and we would be entitled to have excess margin returned to us by the counterparty. Our lenders typically value our pledged securities daily to ensure the adequacy of our margin and make margin calls as needed, as do we. Typically, but not always, the parties agree to a minimum threshold amount for margin calls so as to avoid the need for nuisance margin calls on a daily basis. Our master repurchase agreements do not specify the haircut; rather haircuts are determined on an individual repo transaction basis. Throughout the three months ended March 31, 2023, haircuts on our pledged collateral remained stable and as of March 31, 2023, our weighted average haircut was approximately 4.4% of the value of our collateral compared to 4.9% as of December 31, 2022.
TBAs represent a form of off-balance sheet financing and are accounted for as derivative instruments. (See Note 4 to our Financial Statements in this Form 10-Q for additional details on our TBAs). Under certain market conditions, it may be uneconomical for us to roll our TBAs into future months and we may need to take or make physical delivery of the underlying securities. If we were required to take physical delivery to settle a long TBA, we would have to fund our total purchase commitment with cash or other financing sources and our liquidity position could be negatively impacted.
Our TBAs are also subject to margin requirements governed by the Mortgage-Backed Securities Division ("MBSD") of the FICC and by our Master Securities Forward Transaction Agreements (“MSFTAs”), which may establish margin levels in excess of the MBSD. Such provisions require that we establish an initial margin based on the notional value of the TBA, which is subject to increase if the estimated fair value of our TBAs or the estimated fair value of our pledged collateral declines. The MBSD has the sole discretion to determine the value of our TBAs and of the pledged collateral securing such contracts. In the event of a margin call, we must generally provide additional collateral on the same business day.
Settlement of our TBA obligations by taking delivery of the underlying securities as well as satisfying margin requirements could negatively impact our liquidity position. However, since we do not use TBA dollar roll transactions as our primary source of financing, we believe that we will have adequate sources of liquidity to meet such obligations.
We invest a portion of our capital in structured Agency RMBS. We generally do not apply leverage to this portion of our portfolio. The leverage inherent in structured securities replaces the leverage obtained by acquiring PT securities and funding them in the repurchase market. This structured RMBS strategy has been a core element of the Company’s overall investment strategy since inception. However, we have and may continue to pledge a portion of our structured RMBS in order to raise our cash levels, but generally will not pledge these securities in order to acquire additional assets.
In future periods, we expect to continue to finance our activities in a manner that is consistent with our current operations through repurchase agreements. As of March 31, 2023, we had cash and cash equivalents of $143.2 million. We generated cash flows of $95.6 million from principal and interest payments on our RMBS and had average repurchase agreements outstanding of $3,573.9 million during the three months ended March 31, 2023.
As described more fully below, we may also access liquidity by selling our equity or debt securities in public offerings or private placements.
Stockholders’ Equity
On October 29, 2021, we entered into an equity distribution agreement (the “October 2021 Equity Distribution Agreement”) with four sales agents pursuant to which we could offer and sell, from time to time, up to an aggregate amount of $250,000,000 of shares of our common stock in transactions that were deemed to be “at the market” offerings and privately negotiated transactions. We issued a total of 9,742,188 shares under the October 2021 Equity Distribution Agreement for aggregate gross proceeds of approximately $151.8 million, and net proceeds of approximately $149.3 million, after commissions and fees, prior to its termination in March 2023.
On March 7, 2023, we entered into an equity distribution agreement (the “March 2023 Equity Distribution Agreement”) with three sales agents pursuant to which we may offer and sell, from time to time, up to an aggregate amount of $250,000,000 of shares of our common stock in transactions that are deemed to be “at the market” offerings and privately negotiated transactions. No shares have been issued under the March 2023 Equity Distribution Agreement through
March 31, 2023
.
Outlook
Economic Summary
As 2022 came to a close and the calendar turned to 2023, there was clear divergence in the outlook for monetary policy between the Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) and the market. Market pricing in the Fed Funds futures market implied the Fed would increase the Fed Funds rate by 25 bps one or possibly two more times in early 2023 and then begin to lower the Fed Funds rate in late 2023 and continue doing so in 2024 as inflation moderated towards the Fed’s 2% target rate and the economy slowed. The Fed, as reflected in their “dot plot” and frequent public statements, implied they would hold the Fed Funds rate steady throughout 2023 after the expected hikes early in the year. The divergence persisted through January of 2023 and into early February until the incoming economic data began to change and clearly supported the Fed’s case that inflation was not slowing and that monetary policy would need to be restrictive until the data warranted such a change.
The January non-farm payroll report released on February 3, 2023 indicated the economy added over 500,000 jobs in January. The inflation data released in late 2022 was revised higher. It was becoming clear that market pricing of future Fed Funds levels was too optimistic and that the Fed had more work to do. Measures of inflation related to goods had clearly slowed, reflecting the easing of supply constraints brought about by the pandemic, coupled with a shift in consumption patterns away from goods and towards services. However, the Fed’s focus was on service-related inflation, particularly service-related inflation excluding shelter related costs. This measure of inflation was not declining. Further, the Fed sees service inflation as being strongly influenced by wage pressures. With the unemployment rate near historical lows and wage inflation high, there was no reason to believe service-related inflation was about to abruptly slow. In fact, data released in the first months of 2023 for this measure, what is now referred to as “super core” inflation, appears to have accelerated. Strong job growth will only exacerbate the problem. The market pricing for Fed Funds futures moved higher starting in early February and the terminal rate for Fed Funds moved above 5.5% in early March.
This was not the last time the outlook for the economy, inflation and Fed Funds levels would change during the first quarter. In early March there were two large regional bank failures that required the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (“FDIC”) to intervene. The speed with which the banks failed caught the market by surprise and required rapid responses by monetary authorities. The Fed introduced a bank term lending facility (“BTLF”) and the FDIC announced they would guarantee all deposits at both banks, regardless of size. The cause for both failures was deposit withdrawals. With short-term rates having risen by well over 400 bps in approximately 1 year, the banks that could not afford to pay correspondingly high rates on their deposits were vulnerable to losing previously cheap funding. The market expected further problems across the industry and anticipated the Fed would not be able to continue to increase rates and risk exacerbating the problem. Market pricing in the Fed Funds futures market moved from a terminal rate above 5.5% to pricing in multiple cuts to the Fed Funds rate by year-end. Interest rates across the curve moved quickly lower.
As the first quarter of 2023 came to a close it appeared the macroprudential policies imposed by the FDIC, U.S. Treasury and Fed were containing the deposit problem in the banking industry. Once again, the market outlook shifted and the outlook for monetary pricing has shifted as well. Economic data, particularly labor market and inflation related data has remained supportive of the notion that the Fed would have to move policy to more restrictive levels and keep it there longer. The brief banking crisis initially appeared to have been contained; however, additional bank failures are possible.
Interest Rates
The two-year U.S. Treasury note is the most sensitive to anticipated Fed Funds levels. The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note was approximately 4.43% on December 31, 2022, declined to just above 4% in early February, increased rapidly after the payroll report on February 3, 2023, to a high of 5.07% on March 8, 2023, then declined to a low of approximately 3.77% on March 24, 2023 after the two bank failures occurred. Since the first quarter ended, the 2-year yield has continued to move significantly from day to day as data and headlines dictate. The daily volatility in the rates market was near historical highs, particularly short-term rates. Over the course of the first quarter the level of interest rates over the entire curve – nominal rates or SOFR swap levels – did not move materially. All movements along the curve were plus or minus approximately 40 bps. Rates/swaps were higher on shorter maturities (six-month maturities or less) and higher for 2-year maturities and longer. However, this masks the extreme volatility during the quarter where daily movements of 20 bps occurred for several days at a time. Interest rate volatility is a significant driver of Agency RMBS prices and performance. With volatility so high during the quarter, performance was negatively impacted, particularly in March, as described below.
Mortgage rates available to borrowers for Agency RMBS were more stable during the first quarter of 2023. The Mortgage Bankers Association 30-year survey rate averaged 6.45% for the quarter, with a high of 6.79% and a low of 6.18% for the quarter. Note the first quarter is typically the seasonal trough for housing activity and, with rates still generally far above levels available to borrowers a year or more ago, refinancing activity during the first quarter was barely above the level that occurred in December of 2022, which in turn was the lowest level observed since the very early 2000s.
The Agency RMBS Market
The Agency RMBS market generated a total return of 2.5% for the first quarter of 2023. The sector underperformed comparable duration SOFR swaps by 0.2% for the first quarter. Performance for the quarter was meaningfully impacted by the extreme volatility in March. For the month of March, the sector returns were 2.0% and -1.2% versus comparable duration SOFR swaps. Performance across the 30-year sector versus comparable duration SOFR swaps was uneven, as lower (2.0% and 2.5% securities) and higher coupons (5.0% and 5.5% securities) underperformed intermediate coupon securities.
The Agency RMBS sector underperformed investment grade and sub-investment grade corporates both on an absolute and relative basis (to comparable duration swaps) for the quarter. Performance versus most other sectors of the domestic fixed income markets was generally comparable.
Recent Legislative and Regulatory Developments
In response to the deterioration in the markets for U.S. Treasuries, Agency RMBS and other mortgage and fixed income markets resulting from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed implemented a program of quantitative easing. Through November of 2021, the Fed was committed to purchasing $80 billion of U.S. Treasuries and $40 billion of Agency RMBS each month. In November of 2021, it began tapering its net asset purchases each month, ended net asset purchases by early March of 2022, and ended asset purchases entirely in September of 2022. On May 4, 2022, the FOMC announced a plan for reducing the Fed’s balance sheet. In June of 2022, in accordance with this plan, the Fed began reducing its balance sheet by a maximum of $30 billion of U.S. Treasuries and $17.5 billion of Agency RMBS each month. On September 21, 2022, the FOMC announced the Fed’s decision to continue reducing the balance sheet by a maximum of $60 billion of U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion of Agency RMBS per month.
On January 29, 2021, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention issued guidance extending eviction moratoriums for covered persons put in place by the CARES Act through March 31, 2021. The FHFA subsequently extended the foreclosure moratorium for loans backed by the Enterprises and the eviction moratorium for real estate owned by the Enterprises until July 31, 2021 and September 30, 2021, respectively. The U.S. Housing and Urban Development Department subsequently extended the FHA foreclosure and eviction moratoria to July 31, 2021, and September 30, 2021, respectively. Despite the expirations of these foreclosure moratoria, a final rule adopted by the CFPB on June 28, 2021, effectively prohibited servicers from initiating a foreclosure before January 1, 2022, in most instances. Foreclosure activity has risen since the end of the moratorium, with foreclosure starts in the first quarter of 2023 up 22% year over year, but still remaining lower than pre-pandemic levels.
On September 30, 2019, the FHFA announced that the Enterprises were allowed to increase their capital buffers to $25 billion and $20 billion, respectively, from the prior limit of $3 billion each. This step could ultimately lead to the Enterprises being privatized and represents the first concrete step on the road to Enterprise reform. In December 2020, the FHFA released a final rule on a new regulatory framework for the Enterprises which seeks to implement both a risk-based capital framework and minimum leverage capital requirements. On January 14, 2021, the U.S. Treasury and the FHFA executed letter agreements allowing the Enterprises to continue to retain capital up to their regulatory minimums, including buffers, as prescribed in the December rule. These letter agreements provide, in part, (i) there will be no exit from conservatorship until all material litigation is settled and the Enterprise has common equity Tier 1 capital of at least 3% of its assets, (ii) the Enterprises will comply with the FHFA’s regulatory capital framework, (iii) higher-risk single-family mortgage acquisitions will be restricted to current levels, and (iv) the U.S. Treasury and the FHFA will establish a timeline and process for future Enterprise reform. However, no definitive proposals or legislation have been released or enacted with respect to ending the conservatorship, unwinding the Enterprises, or materially reducing the roles of the Enterprises in the U.S. mortgage market. On September 14, 2021, the U.S. Treasury and the FHFA suspended certain policy provisions in the January agreement, including limits on loans acquired for cash consideration, multifamily loans, loans with higher risk characteristics and second homes and investment properties. On February 25, 2022, the FHFA published a final rule, effective as of April 26, 2022, amending the Enterprise capital framework established in December 2020 by, among other things, replacing the fixed leverage buffer equal to 1.5% of an Enterprise’s adjusted total assets with a dynamic leverage buffer equal to 50% of an Enterprise’s stability capital buffer, reducing the risk weight floor from 10% to 5%, and removing the requirement that the Enterprises must apply an overall effectiveness adjustment to their credit risk transfer exposures. On June 14, 2022, the Enterprises announced that they would each charge a 50 bps fee for commingled securities issued on or after July 1, 2022 to cover the additional capital required for such securities under the Enterprise capital framework, which was subsequently reduced on January 19, 2023 to 9.375 bps for commingled securities issued on or after April 1, 2023 to address industry concern that the fee posed a risk to the fungibility of the Uniform Mortgage-Backed Security (“UMBS”) and negatively impacted liquidity and pricing in the market for TBA securities.
In 2017, policymakers announced that LIBOR will be replaced by December 31, 2021. The directive was spurred by the fact that banks are uncomfortable contributing to the LIBOR panel given the shortage of underlying transactions on which to base levels and the liability associated with submitting an unfounded level. However, the ICE Benchmark Administration, in its capacity as administrator of USD LIBOR, has announced that it intends to extend publication of USD LIBOR (other than one-week and two-month tenors) by 18 months to June 2023.
On December 7, 2021, the CFPB released a final rule that amends Regulation Z, which implemented the Truth in Lending Act, aimed at addressing cessation of LIBOR for both closed-end (e.g., home mortgage) and open-end (e.g., home equity line of credit) products. The rule, which mostly became effective in April of 2022, establishes requirements for the selection of replacement indices for existing LIBOR-linked consumer loans. Although the rule does not mandate the use of SOFR as the alternative rate, it identifies SOFR as a comparable rate for closed-end products and states that for open-end products, the CFPB has determined that ARRC’s recommended spread-adjusted indices based on SOFR for consumer products to replace the one-month, three-month, or six-month USD LIBOR index “have historical fluctuations that are substantially similar to those of the LIBOR indices that they are intended to replace.” The CFPB reserved judgment, however, on a SOFR-based spread-adjusted replacement index to replace the one-year USD LIBOR until it obtained additional information.
On March 15, 2022, the Adjustable Interest Rate (LIBOR) Act (the “LIBOR Act”) was signed into law as part of the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2022 (H.R. 2471). The LIBOR Act provides for a statutory replacement benchmark rate for contracts that use LIBOR as a benchmark and do not contain any fallback mechanism independent of LIBOR. Pursuant to the LIBOR Act, SOFR becomes the new benchmark rate by operation of law for any such contract. The LIBOR Act establishes a safe harbor from litigation for claims arising out of or related to the use of SOFR as the recommended benchmark replacement. The LIBOR Act makes clear that it should not be construed to disfavor the use of any benchmark on a prospective basis.
On July 28, 2022, the Fed published a proposed rule to implement the LIBOR Act, which was adopted on December 16, 2022. The final rule, which went into effect on February 27, 2023, sets benchmark SOFR rates to replace overnight, one-month, three-month, six-month and 12-month LIBOR contracts and provides mechanisms for converting most existing LIBOR contracts, including Agency RMBS, to SOFR no later than June 30, 2023.
The LIBOR Act also attempts to forestall challenges that it is impairing contracts. It provides that the discontinuance of LIBOR and the automatic statutory transition to a replacement rate neither impairs or affects the rights of a party to receive payment under such contracts, nor allows a party to discharge their performance obligations or to declare a breach of contract. It amends the Trust Indenture Act of 1939 to state that the “the right of any holder of any indenture security to receive payment of the principal of and interest on such indenture security shall not be deemed to be impaired or affected” by application of the LIBOR Act to any indenture security.
The scope and nature of the actions the U.S. government or the Fed will ultimately undertake are unknown and will continue to evolve.
Effect on Us
Regulatory developments, movements in interest rates and prepayment rates affect us in many ways, including the following:
Effects on our Assets
A change in or elimination of the guarantee structure of Agency RMBS may increase our costs (if, for example, guarantee fees increase) or require us to change our investment strategy altogether. For example, the elimination of the guarantee structure of Agency RMBS may cause us to change our investment strategy to focus on non-Agency RMBS, which in turn would require us to significantly increase our monitoring of the credit risks of our investments in addition to interest rate and prepayment risks.
If prepayment rates are relatively low (due, in part, to the refinancing problems described above), lower long-term interest rates can increase the value of our Agency RMBS. This is because investors typically place a premium on assets with coupon/yields that are higher than coupon/yields available in the market. To the extent such securities pre-pay slower than would otherwise be the case, we benefit from an above market coupon/yield for longer, enhancing the return from the security. Although lower long-term interest rates may increase asset values in our portfolio, we may not be able to invest new funds in similarly yielding assets.
If prepayment levels increase, the value of any of our Agency RMBS that are carried at a premium to par that are affected by such prepayments may decline. This is because a principal prepayment accelerates the effective term of an Agency RMBS, which would shorten the period during which an investor would receive above-market returns (assuming the yield on the prepaid asset is higher than market yields). Also, prepayment proceeds may not be able to be reinvested in similar-yielding assets. Agency RMBS backed by mortgages with high interest rates are more susceptible to prepayment risk because holders of those mortgages are most likely to refinance to a lower rate. If prepayment levels decrease, the value of any of our Agency RMBS that are carried at a discount to par that are affected by such prepayments may increase. This is because a principal prepayment accelerates the effective term of an Agency RMBS, which would shorten the timeframe over which an investor would receive the principal of the underlying loans. Agency RMBS backed by mortgages with low interest rates are less susceptible to prepayment risk because holders of those mortgages are less likely to refinance to a higher rate. IOs and IIOs, however, may be the types of Agency RMBS most sensitive to increased prepayment rates. Because the holder of an IO or IIO receives no principal payments, the values of IOs and IIOs are entirely dependent on the existence of a principal balance on the underlying mortgages. If the principal balance is eliminated due to prepayment, IOs and IIOs essentially become worthless. Although increased prepayment rates can negatively affect the value of our IOs and IIOs, they have the opposite effect on POs. Because POs act like zero-coupon bonds, meaning they are purchased at a discount to their par value and have an effective interest rate based on the discount and the term of the underlying loan, an increase in prepayment rates would reduce the effective term of our POs and accelerate the yields earned on those assets, which would increase our net income.
Higher long-term rates can also affect the value of our Agency RMBS. As long-term rates rise, rates available to borrowers also rise. This tends to cause prepayment activity to slow and extend the expected average life of mortgage cash flows. As the expected average life of the mortgage cash flows increases, coupled with higher discount rates, the value of Agency RMBS declines. Some of the instruments we use to hedge our Agency RMBS assets, such as interest rate futures, swaps and swaptions, are stable average life instruments. This means that to the extent we use such instruments to hedge our Agency RMBS assets, our hedges may not adequately protect us from price declines, and therefore may negatively impact our book value. It is for this reason we use interest only securities in our portfolio. As interest rates rise, the expected average life of these securities increases, causing generally positive price movements as the number and size of the cash flows increase the longer the underlying mortgages remain outstanding. This makes interest only securities desirable hedge instruments for pass-through Agency RMBS.
The Agency RMBS market began to experience severe dislocations in mid-March 2020 as a result of the economic, health and market turmoil brought about by COVID-19. On March 23, 2020, the Fed announced that it would purchase Agency RMBS and U.S. Treasuries in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning, which largely stabilized the Agency RMBS market, but ended these purchases in March 2022 and announced plans to reduce its balance sheet. The Fed’s continued reduction of its balance sheet could negatively impact our investment portfolio.
Because we base our investment decisions on risk management principles rather than anticipated movements in interest rates, in a volatile interest rate environment we may allocate more capital to structured Agency RMBS with shorter durations. We believe these securities have a lower sensitivity to changes in long-term interest rates than other asset classes. We may attempt to mitigate our exposure to changes in long-term interest rates by investing in IOs and IIOs, which typically have different sensitivities to changes in long-term interest rates than PT RMBS, particularly PT RMBS backed by fixed-rate mortgages.
Effects on our borrowing costs
We leverage our PT RMBS portfolio and a portion of our structured Agency RMBS with principal balances through the use of short-term repurchase agreement transactions. The interest rates on our debt are determined by the short term interest rate markets. Increases in the Fed Funds rate, SOFR or LIBOR typically increase our borrowing costs, which could affect our interest rate spread if there is no corresponding increase in the interest we earn on our assets. This would be most prevalent with respect to our Agency RMBS backed by fixed rate mortgage loans because the interest rate on a fixed-rate mortgage loan does not change even though market rates may change.
In order to protect our net interest margin against increases in short-term interest rates, we may enter into interest rate swaps, which economically convert our floating-rate repurchase agreement debt to fixed-rate debt or utilize other hedging instruments such as Fed Funds and T-Note futures contracts or interest rate swaptions.
Summary
The economy and the outlook for monetary policy during the first quarter were very volatile. While it is likely we are nearing the end of the accelerated policy removal period that began last March the outlook for monetary policy over the course of 2023 and beyond changed multiple times during the quarter, generating significant interest rate volatility, particularly in March.
As the first quarter began the market, as reflected in Fed Funds futures pricing, anticipated the Fed would hike the Fed Funds rate one or possibly two more times in early 2023 and then pivot to easing later in the year as inflation moderated towards their long-term goal of 2%. The incoming economic data in early February and for the balance of the quarter was strong, especially with respect to inflation, the labor market and wages. The Fed, cognizant that goods inflation has already moderated significantly, is focused on services inflation, particularly services excluding housing or shelter related costs (what is currently referred to as “super core” inflation). Readings on “super core” inflation accelerated during the quarter. As the data was released over the balance of the quarter market pricing for Fed Funds over the course of the year continued to increase and the projected terminal rate eventually exceeded 5.5%. Consistent with a policy rate that was likely to remain elevated for a considerable period, the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury reached 5.07% in early March.
The volatility continued, and in fact increased, when a brief banking crisis occurred in early March. Two banks failed and were taken over by the FDIC. The FDIC, U.S. Treasury and Fed responded quickly and as we enter the second quarter it seems the macroprudential steps taken appear to have contained the crisis. However, in the immediate aftermath of these developments, the market reaction was rapid and significant. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by approximately 130 bps in a little over two weeks. Market pricing of Fed Funds at the end of 2023 reflected 3 or 4 25 bps cuts. The December 2023 contract price moved nearly 175 bps in the week after the first failure of Silicon Valley Bank. In sum, volatility across the entire rates market was extremely elevated, surpassing all previous periods since the 2008 financial crisis.
The performance for the Agency RMBS market was in line with most sectors of the fixed income markets during the first quarter of 2023 with the exception of the investment grade and sub-investment grade corporate bonds. However, the volatility described above, which peaked during March, meaningfully impacted performance for the sector in March. The return for the sector versus comparable duration SOFR swaps was -1.2%. Across the 30-year, fixed rate sector of the Agency RMBS market returns were uneven, as higher and lower coupons – over 4.5% and below 3.0% - trailed returns for the intermediate coupons.
The failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank led to their takeover by the FDIC. The FDIC took possession of approximately $114 billion of securities held by the two banks that the FDIC needs to liquidate. These sales will occur over the balance of 2023. The magnitude of these sales in proportion to typical supply levels in the current rate environment represents a formidable risk to the performance of the sector over the near term. The Agency RMBS expected to be sold – predominantly lower coupon 30, 20 and 15-year securities, have underperformed higher coupon securities since the proposed liquidations were announced. The liquidation sales commenced on April 18th, 2023, and are expected to continue for 30 to 40 more weeks. The Company’s portfolio contains a significant allocation to some of the securities to be sold. These securities have performed poorly since the announcement date of the liquidations and their poor relative performance may continue. To the extent this trend continues the Company’s performance will be affected absent changes in the construction of the portfolio or hedges.
Critical Accounting Estimates
Our condensed financial statements are prepared in accordance with GAAP. GAAP requires our management to make some complex and subjective decisions and assessments. Our most critical accounting estimates involve decisions and assessments which could significantly affect reported assets, liabilities, revenues and expenses. There have been no changes to our critical accounting estimates as discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022.
Capital Expenditures
At March 31, 2023, we had no material commitments for capital expenditures.
Dividends
In addition to other requirements that must be satisfied to continue to qualify as a REIT, we must pay annual dividends to our stockholders of at least 90% of our REIT taxable income, determined without regard to the deduction for dividends paid and excluding any net capital gains. REIT taxable income (loss) is computed in accordance with the Code, and can be greater than or less than our financial statement net income (loss) computed in accordance with GAAP. These book to tax differences primarily relate to the recognition of interest income on RMBS, unrealized gains and losses on RMBS, and the amortization of losses on derivative instruments that are treated as funding hedges for tax purposes.
We intend to pay regular monthly dividends to our stockholders and have declared the following dividends since the completion of our IPO.
(in thousands, except per share amounts) |
|
Year |
|
Per Share Amount |
|
|
Total |
|
2013 |
|
$ |
6.975 |
|
|
$ |
4,662 |
|
2014 |
|
|
10.800 |
|
|
|
22,643 |
|
2015 |
|
|
9.600 |
|
|
|
38,748 |
|
2016 |
|
|
8.400 |
|
|
|
41,388 |
|
2017 |
|
|
8.400 |
|
|
|
70,717 |
|
2018 |
|
|
5.350 |
|
|
|
55,814 |
|
2019 |
|
|
4.800 |
|
|
|
54,421 |
|
2020 |
|
|
3.950 |
|
|
|
53,570 |
|
2021 |
|
|
3.900 |
|
|
|
97,601 |
|
2022 |
|
|
2.475 |
|
|
|
87,906 |
|
2023 - YTD(1) |
|
|
0.640 |
|
|
|
25,098 |
|
Totals |
|
$ |
65.290 |
|
|
$ |
552,568 |
|
(1) |
On April 12, 2023, the Company declared a dividend of $0.16 per share to be paid on May 26, 2023. The effect of this dividend is included in the table above but is not reflected in the Company’s financial statements as of March 31, 2023. |
ITEM 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
Market risk is the exposure to loss resulting from changes in market factors such as interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates, commodity prices and equity prices. The primary market risks that we are exposed to are interest rate risk, prepayment risk, spread risk, liquidity risk, extension risk and counterparty credit risk.
Interest Rate Risk
Interest rate risk is highly sensitive to many factors, including governmental monetary and tax policies, domestic and international economic and political considerations and other factors beyond our control.
Changes in the general level of interest rates can affect our net interest income, which is the difference between the interest income earned on interest-earning assets and the interest expense incurred in connection with our interest-bearing liabilities, by affecting the spread between our interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities. Changes in the level of interest rates can also affect the rate of prepayments of our securities and the value of the RMBS that constitute our investment portfolio, which affects our net income, ability to realize gains from the sale of these assets and ability to borrow, and the amount that we can borrow against these securities.
We may utilize a variety of financial instruments in order to limit the effects of changes in interest rates on our operations. The principal instruments that we use are futures contracts, interest rate swaps and swaptions. These instruments are intended to serve as an economic hedge against future interest rate increases on our repurchase agreement borrowings. Hedging techniques are partly based on assumed levels of prepayments of our Agency RMBS. If prepayments are slower or faster than assumed, the life of the Agency RMBS will be longer or shorter, which would reduce the effectiveness of any hedging strategies we may use and may cause losses on such transactions. Hedging strategies involving the use of derivative securities are highly complex and may produce volatile returns. Hedging techniques are also limited by the rules relating to REIT qualification. In order to preserve our REIT status, we may be forced to terminate a hedging transaction at a time when the transaction is most needed.
Our profitability and the value of our investment portfolio (including derivatives used for hedging purposes) may be adversely affected during any period as a result of changing interest rates, including changes in the forward yield curve.
Our portfolio of PT RMBS is typically comprised of adjustable-rate RMBS (“ARMs”), fixed-rate RMBS and hybrid adjustable-rate RMBS. We generally seek to acquire low duration assets that offer high levels of protection from mortgage prepayments provided that they are reasonably priced by the market. Although the duration of an individual asset can change as a result of changes in interest rates, we strive to maintain a hedged PT RMBS portfolio with an effective duration of less than 2.0. The stated contractual final maturity of the mortgage loans underlying our portfolio of PT RMBS generally ranges up to 30 years. However, the effect of prepayments of the underlying mortgage loans tends to shorten the resulting cash flows from our investments substantially. Prepayments occur for various reasons, including refinancing of underlying mortgages and loan payoffs in connection with home sales, and borrowers paying more than their scheduled loan payments, which accelerates the amortization of the loans.
The duration of our IO and IIO portfolios will vary greatly depending on the structural features of the securities. While prepayment activity will always affect the cash flows associated with the securities, the interest only nature of IOs may cause their durations to become extremely negative when prepayments are high, and less negative when prepayments are low. Prepayments affect the durations of IIOs similarly, but the floating rate nature of the coupon of IIOs (which is inversely related to the level of one month LIBOR) causes their price movements, and model duration, to be affected by changes in both prepayments and one month LIBOR, both current and anticipated levels. As a result, the duration of IIO securities will also vary greatly.
Prepayments on the loans underlying our RMBS can alter the timing of the cash flows from the underlying loans to us. As a result, we gauge the interest rate sensitivity of our assets by measuring their effective duration. While modified duration measures the price sensitivity of a bond to movements in interest rates, effective duration captures both the movement in interest rates and the fact that cash flows to a mortgage related security are altered when interest rates move. Accordingly, when the contract interest rate on a mortgage loan is substantially above prevailing interest rates in the market, the effective duration of securities collateralized by such loans can be quite low because of expected prepayments.
We face the risk that the market value of our PT RMBS assets will increase or decrease at different rates than that of our structured RMBS or liabilities, including our hedging instruments. Accordingly, we assess our interest rate risk by estimating the duration of our assets and the duration of our liabilities. We generally calculate duration using various third party models. However, empirical results and various third party models may produce different duration numbers for the same securities.
The following sensitivity analysis shows the estimated impact on the fair value of our interest rate-sensitive investments and hedge positions as of March 31, 2023 and December 31, 2022, assuming rates instantaneously fall 200 bps, fall 100 bps, fall 50 bps, rise 50 bps, rise 100 bps and rise 200 bps, adjusted to reflect the impact of convexity, which is the measure of the sensitivity of our hedge positions and Agency RMBS’ effective duration to movements in interest rates. We have a negatively convex asset profile and a linear to slightly positively convex hedge portfolio (short positions). It is not uncommon for us to have losses in both directions.
All changes in value in the table below are measured as percentage changes from the investment portfolio value and net asset value at the base interest rate scenario. The base interest rate scenario assumes interest rates and prepayment projections as of March 31, 2023 and December 31, 2022.
Actual results could differ materially from estimates, especially in the current market environment. To the extent that these estimates or other assumptions do not hold true, which is likely in a period of high price volatility, actual results will likely differ materially from projections and could be larger or smaller than the estimates in the table below. Moreover, if different models were employed in the analysis, materially different projections could result. Lastly, while the table below reflects the estimated impact of interest rate increases and decreases on a static portfolio, we may from time to time sell any of our agency securities as a part of the overall management of our investment portfolio.
Interest Rate Sensitivity(1) |
|
|
|
Portfolio |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Market |
|
|
Book |
|
Change in Interest Rate |
|
Value(2)(3) |
|
|
Value(2)(4) |
|
As of March 31, 2023 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-200 Basis Points |
|
|
0.11 |
% |
|
|
0.99 |
% |
-100 Basis Points |
|
|
0.42 |
% |
|
|
3.72 |
% |
-50 Basis Points |
|
|
0.28 |
% |
|
|
2.51 |
% |
+50 Basis Points |
|
|
(0.47 |
)% |
|
|
(4.14 |
)% |
+100 Basis Points |
|
|
(1.03 |
)% |
|
|
(9.13 |
)% |
+200 Basis Points |
|
|
(2.41 |
)% |
|
|
(21.39 |
)% |
As of December 31, 2022 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-200 Basis Points |
|
|
0.52 |
% |
|
|
4.18 |
% |
-100 Basis Points |
|
|
0.61 |
% |
|
|
4.92 |
% |
-50 Basis Points |
|
|
0.40 |
% |
|
|
3.25 |
% |
+50 Basis Points |
|
|
(0.43 |
)% |
|
|
(3.47 |
)% |
+100 Basis Points |
|
|
(1.04 |
)% |
|
|
(8.38 |
)% |
+200 Basis Points |
|
|
(2.51 |
)% |
|
|
(20.27 |
)% |
(1) |
Interest rate sensitivity is derived from models that are dependent on inputs and assumptions provided by third parties as well as by our Manager, and assumes there are no changes in mortgage spreads and assumes a static portfolio. Actual results could differ materially from these estimates. |
(2) |
Includes the effect of derivatives and other securities used for hedging purposes. |
(3) |
Estimated dollar change in investment portfolio value expressed as a percent of the total fair value of our investment portfolio as of such date. |
(4) |
Estimated dollar change in portfolio value expressed as a percent of stockholders' equity as of such date. |
In addition to changes in interest rates, other factors impact the fair value of our interest rate-sensitive investments, such as the shape of the yield curve, market expectations as to future interest rate changes and other market conditions. Accordingly, in the event of changes in actual interest rates, the change in the fair value of our assets would likely differ from that shown above and such difference might be material and adverse to our stockholders.
Prepayment Risk
Because residential borrowers have the option to prepay their mortgage loans at par at any time, we face the risk that we will experience a return of principal on our investments faster than anticipated. Various factors affect the rate at which mortgage prepayments occur, including changes in the level of and directional trends in housing prices, interest rates, general economic conditions, loan age and size, loan-to-value ratio, the location of the property and social and demographic conditions. Additionally, changes to government sponsored entity underwriting practices or other governmental programs could also significantly impact prepayment rates or expectations. Generally, prepayments on Agency RMBS increase during periods of falling mortgage interest rates and decrease during periods of rising mortgage interest rates. However, this may not always be the case. We may reinvest principal repayments at a yield that is lower or higher than the yield on the repaid investment, thus affecting our net interest income by altering the average yield on our assets.
Spread Risk
When the market spread widens between the yield on our Agency RMBS and benchmark interest rates, our net book value could decline if the value of our Agency RMBS falls by more than the offsetting fair value increases on our hedging instruments tied to the underlying benchmark interest rates. We refer to this as "spread risk" or "basis risk." The spread risk associated with our mortgage assets and the resulting fluctuations in fair value of these securities can occur independent of changes in benchmark interest rates and may relate to other factors impacting the mortgage and fixed income markets, such as actual or anticipated monetary policy actions by the Fed, market liquidity, or changes in required rates of return on different assets. Consequently, while we use futures contracts and interest rate swaps and swaptions to attempt to protect against moves in interest rates, such instruments typically will not protect our net book value against spread risk.
Liquidity Risk
The primary liquidity risk for us arises from financing long-term assets with shorter-term borrowings through repurchase agreements. Our assets that are pledged to secure repurchase agreements are Agency RMBS and cash. As of March 31, 2023, we had unrestricted cash and cash equivalents of $143.2 million and unpledged securities of approximately $53.8 million (not including unsettled securities purchases or securities pledged to us) available to meet margin calls on our repurchase agreements and derivative contracts, and for other corporate purposes. However, should the value of our Agency RMBS pledged as collateral or the value of our derivative instruments suddenly decrease, margin calls relating to our repurchase and derivative agreements could increase, causing an adverse change in our liquidity position. Further, there is no assurance that we will always be able to renew (or roll) our repurchase agreements. In addition, our counterparties have the option to increase our haircuts (margin requirements) on the assets we pledge against repurchase agreements, thereby reducing the amount that can be borrowed against an asset even if they agree to renew or roll the repurchase agreement. Significantly higher haircuts can reduce our ability to leverage our portfolio or even force us to sell assets, especially if correlated with asset price declines or faster prepayment rates on our assets.
Extension Risk
The projected weighted average life and the duration (or interest rate sensitivity) of our investments is based on our Manager's assumptions regarding the rate at which the borrowers will prepay the underlying mortgage loans. In general, we use futures contracts and interest rate swaps and swaptions to help manage our funding cost on our investments in the event that interest rates rise. These hedging instruments allow us to reduce our funding exposure on the notional amount of the instrument for a specified period of time.
However, if prepayment rates decrease in a rising interest rate environment, the average life or duration of our fixed-rate assets or the fixed-rate portion of the ARMs or other assets generally extends. This could have a negative impact on our results from operations, as our hedging instrument expirations are fixed and will, therefore, cover a smaller percentage of our funding exposure on our mortgage assets to the extent that their average lives increase due to slower prepayments. This situation may also cause the market value of our Agency RMBS and CMOs collateralized by fixed rate mortgages or hybrid ARMs to decline by more than otherwise would be the case while most of our hedging instruments would not receive any incremental offsetting gains. In extreme situations, we may be forced to sell assets to maintain adequate liquidity, which could cause us to incur realized losses.
Counterparty Credit Risk
We are exposed to counterparty credit risk relating to potential losses that could be recognized in the event that the counterparties to our repurchase agreements and derivative contracts fail to perform their obligations under such agreements. The amount of assets we pledge as collateral in accordance with our agreements varies over time based on the market value and notional amount of such assets as well as the value of our derivative contracts. In the event of a default by a counterparty, we may not receive payments provided for under the terms of our agreements and may have difficulty obtaining our assets pledged as collateral under such agreements. Our credit risk related to certain derivative transactions is largely mitigated through daily adjustments to collateral pledged based on changes in market value and we limit our counterparties to registered central clearing exchanges and major financial institutions with acceptable credit ratings, monitoring positions with individual counterparties and adjusting collateral posted as required. However, there is no guarantee our efforts to manage counterparty credit risk will be successful and we could suffer significant losses if unsuccessful.