US Auto Output Expected To Fall By A Third In '09 -Report
13 Maio 2009 - 3:45PM
Dow Jones News
North American auto production this year is expected to fall by
a third from 2008 to 8.4 million, according to a new industry
forecast published Wednesday.
IHS Global Insight cut another 150,000 vehicles from its late
April estimate amid plans by General Motors Corp. (GM) and Chrysler
LLC to halt production for much of the summer.
Increased domestic production by some other auto makers will
partially offset cuts at GM and Chrysler. Some of the gap will also
be filled by vehicles imported by Toyota Motor Corp. (TM), Honda
Motor Co. (HMC) and other non-U.S. based manufacturers.
Global Insight predicts Ford Motor Co. (F), the only Detroit
auto maker not receiving federal loans, has the most to gain from
cuts by rivals.
Ford is upping North American production by 220,000 from its
initial forecast for the year, while Honda and Toyota are
increasing output by 80,000 and 43,000, respectively.
"We think that most of any lost sales will be picked up almost
immediately by the rest of the industry, with Ford the biggest
winner from the fallout," Global Insight said in a statement.
Second-quarter industry production is forecast to fall 48% from
a year ago, to 1.8 million cars and trucks. Third-quarter
production will fall 22%, to 2.3 million, Global Insight
predicts.
The declines are expected to last through 2011, Global Insight's
latest forecast predicts production in 2010 will fall 263,000
vehicles - more than projected a month ago - to 10.4 million, while
2011 production will be down an additional 319,000 to 12.3
million.
The revised 2009 forecast factors in Chrysler's recent move to
idle all its U.S. factories for at least 60 days, as well as GM's
recently-announced plans to accelerate and expand reductions in its
brands. GM last month added Pontiac to the list of brands targeted
for sale or closure, alongside Hummer, Saab and Saturn.
-By Sharon Terlep; 248-204-5532; sharon.terlep@dowjones.com.