--MSCI to announce UAE, Qatar upgrade review results on
Wednesday
--Expectations mixed on U.A.E.'s chances for an upgrade
--Qatar foreign ownership limits remain a hurdle
--MSCI could extend review period again
By Nikhil Lohade
Of ZAWYA DOW JONES
DUBAI (Zawya Dow Jones)--Index compiler MSCI Inc. is due to
decide this week whether to upgrade the status of stock markets in
the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, a move that would encourage
more foreign investment, though some analysts query whether either
country has done enough to merit a promotion.
MSCI's market classification review to be announced on Wednesday
will assess whether the U.A.E. and Qatar have taken sufficient
steps to open their markets to justify being upgraded to emerging
market status from their current frontier ranking. At the last
review in June, the index compiler postponed a decision by six
months saying it needed more time to study the effectiveness of
market-opening measures in both countries.
Emad Mostaque, a London-based strategist at Religare Capital
Markets, says the U.A.E. has probably done enough to satisfy MSCI
and receive the upgrade. But Qatar has shown no signs of changing
its 25% limit on foreign ownership in local companies, and so is
less likely to move to emerging markets status.
Though MSCI has no prescribed threshold for foreign investment,
the U.A.E.'s 49% limit is generally seen as high enough to gain
emerging market status, analysts said.
"I think the probability of Qatar getting included is very low,"
said Dubai-based Kamran Butt, who heads Credit Suisse's Middle East
private banking equity research, pointing to recent comments from
Qatar that the country doesn't plan to raise foreign ownership
limits.
But others are less sanguine about the U.A.E. and think the MSCI
will postpone a decision on both markets.
The key sticking points for MSCI in June were the limits imposed
by Qatar on foreign ownership, and the need to bed down the
"delivery versus payment" settlement mechanism introduced in April
by the U.A.E., specifically the way that so-called failed trades
are handled.
Under DvP, the delivery of securities is done simultaneously
with payment, meaning that neither the buyer nor the seller is
exposed to the risk that the other will default, one of the key
MSCI requirements for emerging markets status.
EFG Hermes analysts said in a note last week that foreign
investment in the U.A.E has fallen so much in recent months that it
may be hard to assess how well the DvP system is functioning.
Other analysts said the results of the MSCI review are hard to
predict, and the decision may come down to subjective factors, such
as the feedback the index compiler receives from large asset
managers and other industry participants.
Though the Gulf markets are relative safe havens compared with
Egypt and other Middle East countries that have seen their
governments toppled during the Arab Spring, turnover has plummeted
this year because of regional uncertainties, prompting several
brokerages to cut staff or close operations. In October, U.K.-based
banking giant HSBC Holdings PLC (HBC) said it will close its U.A.E.
retail brokerage business and instead focus on institutional
clients.
That leaves many thinking the U.A.E. and Qatar will have to wait
a while longer for their MSCI upgrades.
"Given the current global and regional market conditions, I
won't be surprised if MSCI delays its decision again to its annual
review next year," said Mohammed Ali Yasin, chief investment
officer at Abu Dhabi-based CAPM Investments.
-By Nikhil Lohade, Dow Jones Newswires; +9714 446-1694;
nikhil.lohade@dowjones.com
Copyright (c) 2011 Dow Jones & Co.