US & World Daily Markets Financial Briefing 14-01-2008

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Stocks rally on robust IBM results

NEW YORK - Wall Street rose sharply in early trading Monday, with solid preliminary results from IBM encouraging investors to buy back into the stock market after last week's rout.

International Business Machines Corp., one of the 30 Dow Jones industrials, released preliminary earnings estimates for the fourth quarter that were 24 percent above year-earlier levels and that also beat the forecast of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial.

But the badly beaten financial sector could be in for more pain, after reports over the past week that Citigroup Inc. may have to take a larger-than-feared writedown; the bank's earnings report is due Tuesday.

Elsewhere in the sector, Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. is seeking $4 billion, in a second capital raising to stanch the losses on its balance sheet, according to the Financial Times. The Kuwait Investment Authority could invest as much as $3 billion in the deal, which could be announced by the middle of the week.

In the first hour of trading, the Dow gained 95.52, or 0.76 percent, to 12,701.82. Broader stock indicators were sharply higher as well. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 7.09, or 0.51 percent, to 1,408.11 and the Nasdaq composite index shot up 17.50, or 0.72 percent, to 2,457.44.

With no major data reports on the calendar, investors are expected to focus on corporate and commodities news. Overnight in overseas trading, gold futures hit a record, venturing above $913, and investors will want to see if those price levels are sustained in the U.S. session. Dealers attributed the surge to more dollar weakness after the euro reached a new high above $1.49.

Other commodities were higher too. Crude oil futures rose $1.04 to $93.73 a barrel in premarket trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Treasurys were trending slightly higher in early dealings. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was 3.80 percent, down from 3.81 percent on Friday. Prices and yields trade in opposite directions.

In corporate news, General Motors Corp. Chief Financial Officer Fritz Henderson said that although the GMAC finance wing's auto loan delinquencies were up slightly in the third quarter from year before levels, the problems for auto loans were not nearly as severe as the credit troubles in the real estate sector. GM sold control of GMAC in 2006 but still owns a large minority stake.

Sears Holdings Corp. warned that its upcoming fourth-quarter report could show a decline as high as 51 percent from year-earlier levels, adding to concerns that economic weakness is slowing the retail sector. The company Monday forecast a result of $2.59 to $3.48 a share, which would be down from $5.33 a year before and a Thomson Financial forecast of $4.43 a share.

Stocks sold off sharply last week after a chorus of Wall Street economists predicted the U.S. is about to slide into a recession. The Dow lost 1.51 percent during the week, the S&P 500 index dropped 0.75 percent and the Nasdaq gave up 2.58 percent. However, a recession cannot be declared until there are two quarters in a row of economic shrinkage as measured by gross domestic product data and that has not occurred yet.

At the same time, the talk of economic weakness and recent pointed remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke have convinced investors the central bank will cut rates later this month. The expectation of cheaper money also bolstered sentiment Monday. The Fed's monetary policy committee will meet Jan. 29-30.

The Tokyo stock market was closed for a holiday Monday. In Europe London's FTSE 100 rose 0.70 percent, Germany's DAX advanced 0.41 percent and Paris' CAC 40 gained 0.80 percent.

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Forex - Euro firms at start of key week for inflation figures

The euro remained well-supported due to expectations that inflation figures out later this week will signal the currency is set to gain a yield advantage over the US in the coming months.

Analysts said inflation readings in the UK, US and euro zone are likely to go a long way to determine how the world's central banks are going to act in the weeks and months ahead.

Slowing growth in the UK and US means markets expect the Federal Reserve and Bank of England to cut rates further in the coming months, with US interest rates forecast to fall to 3.75 pct on January 30th from their current level of 4.25 pct. But strong euro zone inflation, coupled with fewer signs of slowing growth means borrowing costs in the 15-nation single currency area are expected to remain at 4.00 pct for the next few months.

"With the BoE and Fed both likely to cut at their next monetary policy meetings, and the hawkish rhetoric of the European Central Bank press conference last Thursday, the euro should remain well supported in the short run with rate expectations remaining a key driver," said analysts at

Though euro zone and US figures are not due until later in the week, the euro has started the week firmly, rising as high as 1.4914 usd at one point - its highest level since the end of November last year.

US figures on Wednesday are expected to show CPI up a monthly 0.2 pct in December, down from the 0.8 pct increase recorded in November. Meanwhile, core CPI is expected to have increased 0.2 pct in December following a 0.3 pct increase in the previous month.

Euro zone figures on the same day are expected to show that inflation was up an above-target 3.1 pct in the year to December, with prices rising 0.4 pct month-on-month.

The dollar is also under pressure due to fears that several large US banks will report huge losses from their dealings in the subprime market later this week. Market talk that Citigroup may announce up to 20 bln usd in subprime losses follows reports last week that Merrill Lynch will report a 15 bln usd write down.

Meanwhile the pound fell back sharply, as strong produce price figures did little to alter expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates next month.

Official figures showed output prices - a key guage of upstream inflationary pressures - rose 5.0 pct year-on-year in December, the highest rise since August 1991.

"The data shows continued near-term upward inflationary pressures in the manufacturing sector....but this will not prevent the Monetary Policy Committee continuing easing monetary policy," said Alina Anishchanka, currency strategist at UBS.

Elsewhere, a market holiday in Japan has not prevented the yen from gaining some ground against major currencies, due to a fall in investors' risk appetite at the start of the US fourth quarter earning season. The yen tends to benefit when investors become cautious, as it is seen as a safe-haven currency which maintains its value.

"Risk aversion remains the name of the game with the gloomy performance by US equity indices on Friday replicated by markets across much of Asia today," said Neil Mellor at Bank of New York.

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Euroshares fall in early trade on credit, recession fears; Suez in focus

At 9.39 am, the Dow Jones STOXX 50 Index was down 11.01 points, or 0.3 pct at 3,528.19 while the DJ STOXX 600 Index fell 0.13 point, or 0.03 pct to 343.56

Suez shares fell 4.1 pct after Credit Agricole said it is selling its entire 2.07 pct stake in utility giant "to reinforce the dynamic management of the allocation of its capital".

"Suez is falling for technical reasons on the one hand, because of the price of the placement, which is between 43.75 eur and 45.00, and also because the market is wondering why Credit Agricole is selling," a Paris dealer explained.

Among them, Eurazeo was up 1.6 pct, Gecina fell 0.8 pct but Banco Espirito Santo dropped 0.2 pct. GDF was another victim of the Credit Agricole stake sale, falling 3.9 pct.

Scottish & Newcastle shares rose 1 pct as the UK brewer used its third quarter update to reassure on its full-year outlook and reiterate its position that a 780 pence a share takeover offer from Carlsberg A/S and Heineken NV under-valued the company.

S&N said it was looking for a minority partner to take a 25 pct stake in the company. Carlsberg shares were up 1 pct as it received an upgrade to 'buy' from 'hold' at Dresdner Kleinwort, even as the broker said it preferred drinks companies with a focus on spirits rather than beer for 2008.

The broker also upgraded Diageo to 'buy' from 'hold' and Campari to 'buy' from 'reduce.' The shares were up 0.7 pct and 1 pct respectively.

It downgraded InBev to 'hold' from 'buy' and SABMiller to 'hold' from 'Add.' InBev was down 0.7 pct but SABMiller weathered the downgrade to trade up 0.7 pct.

In other news, shares in Iberia rallied 4.2 pct after a report that the air carrier's core shareholders Caja Madrid and British Airways are in talks to reach an agreement over their objectives for the airline. British Airways was up 2.1 pct.

On the earnings front, shares in Oce soared 13.1 pct after the printer and copier maker posted a 34.2 pct jump in quarterly earnings and lifted its dividend.

Balfour Beatty shares were down 2.6 pct. Broker Citigroup advised investors to take profits after the UK engineering and construction group said trading in the second half of the year was strong and that it was anticipating full-year results at the top end of current expectations.

"The rating is expensive relative to its history, to its UK peers and to its European peers," the broker said in a note to clients. "We reduce our target from 450p to 420p to reflect the weakness in market conditions."

Staying in the UK, property companies soared on a report Laxey Partners has created a 1 bln stg fund to target property shares. Among the biggest gainers, Segro was up 6.4 pct while Derwent London rose 4.8 pct.

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Asian stocks mostly lower on Wall St sell-off; Singapore leads fall 

The Singapore Straits Times Index led the downslide, shedding 2.1 pct to end at 3,218.14 points. The South Korean KOSPI fell 0.9 pct to 1,765.88, its lowest level since Aug 22. Australia's S&P/ASX 200, which was bucking the regional trend earlier, gave up its gains to close down 1.6 points at 5,980.0. The All Ordinaries ended down 0.2 pct at 6,040.9.

The Philippine composite index ended down 0.6 pct at 3,482.28, the Hang Seng Index closed down 1.5 pct at 26,468.13, and the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index fell 0.6 pct to 1,507.04. The Jakarta index closed down 0.7 pct at 2,810.37.

Taiwan bucked the general trend as investors cheered the landslide victory of the Kuomintang (KMT) party in parliamentary elections over the weekend. The KMT favours closer ties between Taiwan and China. Taiwan's stock benchmark gained 1.8 pct at 8,173.41, while the Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.2 pct at 5,497.90.

Japanese markets were closed for a public holiday.Among individual stocks, Commonwealth Bank slipped 0.3 pct to 55.70 aud, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group dropped 0.2 pct to 25.68 aud and National Australia Bank eased 0.1 pct to 35.17 aud.

BHP Billiton gave up early gains to finish down 0.2 pct at 38.24 aud, while Rio Tinto retreated 0.5 pct to 125.00 aud.

In Korea, LG Philips LCD slid 1.3 pct to 44,150 won. The world's major flat screen display maker said after the market close that its fourth-quarter operating profit surged to a record 869 bln won, far above the market forecast of 803.2 bln won.

SK Telecom advanced 1.9 pct to 219,500 won, rebounding from recent selloffs with investors attracted by the surge in the value of its lucrative investment in China Unicom and the presidential transition committee's decision not to force a major tariff cut on mobile carriers.

POSCO gained 0.8 pct to 537,000 won as investors were encouraged by the company's positive earnings guidance for this year.

The Bombay Stock Exchange's 30-share Sensex shed 99.40 points or 0.48 pct to 20,728.05 while the National Stock Exchange's 50-share S&P CNX Nifty closed marginally higher, up 0.11 pct at 6,206.80 points.

Among the 30 companies that comprise the Sensex, 19 declined, led by telecom company Bharti Airtel Ltd, which lost 58.45 rupees to close at 907.30 rupees, a loss of 6.05 pct from Friday's close. State-run power producer NTPC Ltd gained most, rising 4.74 pct to 285.20 rupees.

Reliance Industries Ltd, India's biggest company by assets, which is planning a 6-8 bln usd project to turn coal into oil, rose 2.82 pct to 3,216.30 rupees on the BSE. The share touched a 52-week high of 3,236.00 rupees before receding.

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Metals - Gold races to record near 915 usd on weak dollar, platinum at high

Gold raced to a series of fresh records above 910 usd per ounce as economic uncertainty fuelled investment and as the dollar remained weak.

The precious metal, which has gained around 60 pct since this time last year, rose to a record 914.10 usd per ounce this morning.

Dollar weakness spurred buying as it made gold and other commodities denominated in the greenback relatively cheaper. Elsewhere, gold rose in line with the higher oil price which increased the metal's appeal as a hedge against inflation.

Global economic uncertainty, meanwhile, spurred safe-haven buying and expectations the US Federal Reserve will cut its main interest rate by half a percentage point this month kept the dollar weak, in turn helping gold's rally.

Gold has become the "third reservable currency in the world, following the US dollar and the euro... in a world of economic and political confusion, gold reigns," said Dennis Gartman, editor of daily trading note The Gartman Letter.

US economic weakness, stemming from the subprime crisis has, in part, weakened the dollar while the financial turmoil itself has fuelled gold-buying as a safe-haven.

Investors have been keen to buy gold which can be used to either store value or as an asset they can liquidate in times of turmoil to raise cash to cover losses. "With uncertainty regarding the future path of US economic growth, the current economic woes should continue to support the metal for now," said Standard Bank analyst Walter De Wet.

Some analysts warn, however, that gold could be in store for a sharp price-decline, or correction lower, because it has rallied so strongly in recent weeks.

"It is clear that there are very large speculative positions present in gold and that gold is vulnerable to a sharp correction in price at any time," said analysts at UBS. "All three other precious metals are sitting with large long positions at the moment and are vulnerable to sharp declines. The trigger for such a move would likely come from the gold market although... we have no sense of the timing of such a move," they added.

At 11.47 am, spot gold was trading at 911.55 usd per ounce against 885.60 usd in late New York trade Friday, having hit its record 914.10 usd earlier in the session.

Elsewhere, platinum was up at 1,583 usd an ounce from 1,560 usd, having hit a record of 1,590 usd this morning. Platinum followed in gold's footsteps as dollar weakness fuelled buying. A tight fundamental outlook also helped the metal's run up.

"Given the tight fundamentals following last year's supply disruptions and the launch of Exchange Traded Funds products, the white metal will remain underpinned in the coming months, and could easily push above 1,800 usd/oz should the market tighten further," said James Moore, analyst at TheBullionDesk.Com.

Palladium was lower at 376 usd from 377 us per ounce, while silver rose to 16.52 usd per ounce against 16.25 usd, having hit 16.57 usd per ounce earlier -- its highest price since April 2006.

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