KKR Releases 2024 Mid-Year Global Macro Outlook
18 Junho 2024 - 8:00AM
Business Wire
Henry McVey: Investors Who Prioritize
Diversification This Cycle Will Be Best Prepared When Opportunity
Knocks
KKR, a leading global investment firm, today released its 2024
mid-year global macro outlook by Henry McVey, CIO of KKR’s Balance
Sheet and Head of Global Macro and Asset Allocation (GMAA).
In “Opportunity Knocks,” McVey and his team explain why they
believe the current economic cycle has further to run, despite an
environment of heightened volatility and political complexity that
they envision in the second half of 2024. They also note that
diversification and ability to dynamically lean into dislocation
will be critical to successfully capitalizing on the compelling
investment opportunities that this environment presents. Several
factors underpin the team’s constructive outlook, including an
encouraging technical backdrop, a belief that we have entered a
structurally higher level of productivity in the U.S., a stronger
global employment market versus prior cycles, central bank balance
sheets that are still plump relative to history, and a surprisingly
strong global capex cycle.
Henry McVey and his team continue to believe that we are still
in a Regime Change for investing, one that will be defined by a
combination of excess stimulus, heightened geopolitical risks, an
uneven energy transition, and ongoing skills mismatch. As a result,
they believe that the traditional relationship between stocks and
bonds in a portfolio has fundamentally changed, necessitating a
different approach to portfolio strategy, including owning more
non-correlated assets. They also note that stock-bond correlation
has supplanted single-asset volatility as the primary source of
volatility in portfolios, an environment unfamiliar to most
CIOs.
In the piece, McVey and his team present high conviction asset
allocation picks and pans and important investment themes that they
believe can serve as foils in today’s uncertain landscape,
including accelerating AI demand for electricity, reorientation of
global supply chains, improving labor productivity, and retirement
security. They also highlight several notable updates since their
2024 Outlook:
- Stronger conviction in the importance of owning more
non-correlated assets, given a flatter frontier for expected
returns amidst heightened portfolio volatility.
- More pronounced mismatch between energy supply and demand given
electrification needs and the growth of energy-intensive users such
as data centers, semi fabs, EV battery plants and steel mills.
- Broadening of earnings growth across sectors and geographies,
which we expect will bring more balance to the equity markets.
- More sustained deficits amidst election volatility, which
reinforce our Regime Change thesis and continued belief that the
deficit will stabilize at historically wide levels under either
U.S. presidential administration.
- Greater focus on the positive path for productivity, especially
in the U.S.
- Unprecedented demand for worker retraining, as companies seek
to fill high-skilled jobs left open by COVID-era retirements as
well as ongoing technological advancements.
McVey and his team also make a number of out-of-consensus calls,
which include:
- Above consensus estimates for GDP growth in 2024 across all
regions, including 2.5% for the U.S., 0.8% for Europe, 5.0% in
China and 0.6% in Japan.
- Less concern about a lower U.S. savings rate, given the impact
of aging demographics on savings rates.
- Above consensus on long-term interest rates in the U.S. and
Europe, given our higher for longer inflation thesis.
- We believe we are likely to see better earnings per share than
the consensus, powered by margin expansion, and as a result, remain
above consensus in our price target for the S&P.
- We expect oil prices to settle in the mid $70-80s range in 2024
and our longer-term forecasts remain well above futures.
- Our base view is that there is an asymmetric risk for the
economy and markets if rates go higher versus lower. We also see
the currency and labor markets as potential sources of
volatility.
In addition, the report details the GMAA team’s updated views on
global growth, inflation, interest rates, commodities, currencies,
and the capital markets. The report also addresses key investor
queries on topics such as relative value, inflation, the U.S.
election, consumer spending, expected returns and portfolio
construction, and emerging markets.
Links to access this report in full as well as an archive of
Henry McVey's previous publications follow:
- To read the latest Insights, click here.
- To read the 2024 Outlook, click here.
- For an archive of previous publications please visit
https://www.kkr.com/insights.
About Henry McVey
Henry H. McVey joined KKR in 2011 and is Head of the Global
Macro, Balance Sheet and Risk team. Mr. McVey also serves as Chief
Investment Officer for the Firm’s Balance Sheet, oversees Firmwide
Market Risk at KKR, and co-heads KKR’s Strategic Partnership
Initiative. As part of these roles, he sits on the Firm’s Global
Operating Committee and the Risk & Operations Committee. Prior
to joining KKR, Mr. McVey was a Managing Director, Lead Portfolio
Manager and Head of Global Macro and Asset Allocation at Morgan
Stanley Investment Management (MSIM). Learn more about Mr. McVey
here.
About KKR
KKR is a leading global investment firm that offers alternative
asset management as well as capital markets and insurance
solutions. KKR aims to generate attractive investment returns by
following a patient and disciplined investment approach, employing
world-class people, and supporting growth in its portfolio
companies and communities. KKR sponsors investment funds that
invest in private equity, credit and real assets and has strategic
partners that manage hedge funds. KKR’s insurance subsidiaries
offer retirement, life and reinsurance products under the
management of Global Atlantic Financial Group. References to KKR’s
investments may include the activities of its sponsored funds and
insurance subsidiaries. For additional information about KKR &
Co. Inc. (NYSE: KKR), please visit KKR’s website at www.kkr.com.
For additional information about Global Atlantic Financial Group,
please visit Global Atlantic Financial Group’s website at
www.globalatlantic.com.
The views expressed in the report and summarized herein are the
personal views of Henry McVey of KKR and do not necessarily reflect
the views of KKR or the strategies and products that KKR manages or
offers. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax
or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment
decision or any other decision. This release is prepared solely for
information purposes and should not be viewed as a current, past or
future recommendation or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell
any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. This release
contains forward-looking statements, which are based on beliefs,
assumptions and expectations that may change as a result of many
possible events or factors. If a change occurs, actual results may
vary materially from those expressed in the forward-looking
statements. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the
date such statements are made, and neither KKR nor Mr. McVey
assumes any duty to update such statements except as required by
law.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240618727682/en/
Julia Kosygina 212-750-8300 media@kkr.com
KKR (NYSE:KKR)
Gráfico Histórico do Ativo
De Ago 2024 até Set 2024
KKR (NYSE:KKR)
Gráfico Histórico do Ativo
De Set 2023 até Set 2024