Bitcoin-to-gold ratio breaks 12-year support as gold price hits a record $3K
14 Março 2025 - 10:22AM
Cointelegraph
Bitcoin (BTC) breached a
rising support trendline against gold (XAU), which has been intact
for over 12 years, on March 14. 
XAU/BTC ratio weekly performance chart. Source:
TradingView/NorthStar
Popular analyst NorthStar says
this breakdown could spell the end of Bitcoin’s 12-year bull run if
it stays under the gold trendline for even a week or—worse—a
month.
Is Bitcoin’s bull market over? Let’s take a closer look at BTC’s
correlation with gold.
Gold hits new record high as Bitcoin’s uptrend cools
The BTC/XAU ratio breakdown occurred as spot gold rates hit a
new record high above $3,000 per ounce on March 14, after rising by
about 12.80% year-to-date.
In contrast, Bitcoin, which is often called
“digital
gold,” has dropped by 11% so far in 2025.
BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD YTD performance chart. Source:
TradingView
The performances reflect the contrasting net flows into US-based
spot exchange-traded funds (ETF) tracking Bitcoin and gold.
For instance, as of March 14, the US-based spot gold ETFs had
collectively attracted over $6.48 billion YTD, according to data
resource World
Gold Council. Globally, gold ETFs have seen $23.18 billion in
inflows.
Gold ETFs weekly holdings by region. Source:
GoldHub.com
On the other hand, US-based spot
Bitcoin ETFs saw nearly $1.46 billion in outflows YTD,
according to onchain data platform Glassnode.
US Bitcoin ETFs year-to-date net flows. Source:
Glassnode
The driving force behind this divergence lies in growing
macroeconomic uncertainty and
risk-off sentiment, exacerbated by President Donald Trump’s
aggressive trade policies.
Related:
Bitcoin panic selling costs new investors $100M in 6
weeks — Research
New
tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada have heightened fears of a
global economic slowdown, pushing investors toward traditional
safe-haven assets like gold.
Meanwhile, central banks, including those in the US, China, and
the UK, have accelerated their gold purchases, further boosting
gold prices.
Countries that acquired the most gold so far in 2025.
Source: GoldHub.com
In contrast, Bitcoin is mirroring the broader risk-on market. As
of March 14, its 52-week correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq
Composite index was 0.76.
BTC/USD vs. Nasdaq Composite 52-week correlation coefficient
chart. Source: TradingView
Has Bitcoin price topped?
The
current Bitcoin-to-gold breakdown aligns with historical
patterns, particularly the March 2021–March 2022 fractal, which
preceded the last bear market.
At that time, the BTC/XAU ratio exhibited a bearish divergence,
characterized by rising prices juxtaposed against a declining
relative strength index (RSI).
This pattern suggested diminishing upward momentum.
BTC/XAU ratio two-week performance chart. Source:
TradingView
Consequently, the ratio initially retreated toward the
50-period, two-week exponential moving average (EMA) support level
before ultimately plummeting by 60%.
That BTC/XAU breakdown period coincided with Bitcoin’s 68%
correction against the US dollar.
BTC/USD two-week performance chart. Source:
TradingView
BTC/XAU has once again completed a two-phase EMA retest, echoing
the 2021–2022 fractal.
BTC/USD two-week performance chart (zoomed). Source:
TradingView
With the RSI showing bearish divergence, momentum appears to be
fading, increasing the probability of further declines, especially
if the ratio drops decisively below the 50-2W EMA support (~26
XAU).
As a result, it could also indicate Bitcoin’s increased
vulnerability to price declines in dollar terms, with the 50-2W EMA
below $65,000 acting as the next potential downside target.
BTC/USD 2W price performance chart. Source:
TradingView
That is down about 40% from Bitcoin’s record high of around
$110,000 established in January.
Still, Nansen analysts
consider such a decline as a “correction within a bull market,”
raising possibilities of a bullish revival if the 50-2W EMA
holds as support. However, a definitive break below the EMA could
thrust Bitcoin into bear market territory.
That could drag Bitcoin’s 2025 downside target toward the
200-period two-week EMA (the blue wave) to as low as $34,850 if
this Bitcoin-gold fractal repeats.
This article does not
contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and
trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own
research when making a decision.
...
Continue reading Bitcoin-to-gold ratio breaks
12-year support as gold price hits a record $3K
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Bitcoin-to-gold ratio breaks 12-year support as gold
price hits a record $3K appeared first on
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