Bitcoin (BTC) heads into FOMC week in a
cautious mood, with multimonth lows still uncomfortably close.
-
BTC price action preserves $80,000 support as upside liquidity
looks ripe for the taking.
-
The Fed is the center of attention with a decision due on
interest rates and traders eagerly scanning Chair Jerome Powell for
dovish signals.
-
A return to accumulation among Bitcoin top buyers forms grounds
for confidence over market stability going forward.
-
Historical BTC price cycle analysis delivers an impressive
$126,000 target for the start of June.
-
Those looking to “be greedy when others are fearful” should
concentrate on $69,000, research concludes.
Bitcoin trader sees $87,000 liquidity grab
A comparatively quiet weekend saw BTC/USD avoid a
lasting
sell-off into the weekly close, instead only dipping to $82,000
before rebounding.
Data from Cointelegraph
Markets Pro and TradingView
shows a broad reclaim of the $80,000 mark cementing itself in
recent days.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source:
Cointelegraph/TradingView
“Not a bad Sunday for Bitcoin,” crypto trader, analyst and
entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe summarized in
part of his latest market analysis on X.
“We still have Monday to go, but this looks like we're
making a new higher low on Bitcoin before attacking the highs
again.”
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Michaël van de
Poppe/X
Other market participants echoed the sentiment, including those
seeing another retest of multimonth
lows to take liquidity and “trap” late shorts.
“I think Bitcoin will hit 78k first to grab liquidity before an
Upside Breakout,” popular trader Captain Faibik
argued in part of his
own X content.
“Once the breakout occurs, Bitcoin is likely to reach
109k in the coming weeks (Possibly by mid-April).”
BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: Captain Faibik/X
Fellow trader CrypNuevo meanwhile noted that liquidity was
skewed mostly to the upside, resulting in key targets for bulls to
take.
“The area between $85.4k & $87.1k is the main liquidity
zone,” an X thread explained.
“A move up targeting this area in the upcoming week
seems more than likely.”
Bitcoin exchange order book liquidity data. Source:
CrypNuevo/X
Fed’s Powell in the spotlight as FOMC week arrives
Bitcoin and risk-asset traders have one macroeconomic event only
on their minds this week: the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate
decision.
Coming at what commentary calls a “pivotal
point in time,” the move by the Federal Open Market Committee
(FOMC) will have wide-ranging implications for market
sentiment.
On the surface, it appears that few surprises will likely come
as a result of the second meeting of 2025 — inflation may be
cooling, but Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, maintain
a hawkish stance on the economy and financial policy.
Powell has repeatedly stated that he is in no rush to cut rates,
leading to almost unanimous market bets that current levels will
remain unchanged after FOMC.
The latest estimates from CME Group’s
FedWatch Tool see a high probability of cuts coming only in
June.
Should Powell strike a more relaxed tone during his accompanying
statement and press conference, the mood could easily flip.
“If Powell even whispers ‘QE’ at the next FOMC, markets will
move fast,” crypto technical analyst Kyle Doops
argued in part of an X
post on the topic.
“But knowing Powell, he’ll keep it as vague as
possible.”
Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group
Doops referred to quantitative easing, a byword for liquidity
injections and something that historically benefits crypto
performance.
Behind the scenes, US M2 money supply is already increasing — a
key ingredient for a crypto market rebound.
“M2 money supply rose +3.9% year-over-year in January, the
fastest pace in 30 months. This is the 11th straight month of money
supply expansion,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter
noted at the
weekend.
Kobeissi added that worldwide liquidity is following a similar
pattern.
“Meanwhile, global money supply has risen by ~$2.0 trillion over
the last 2 months, to its highest since September 2024,” it
reported.
“Money supply is expanding
again.”
US M2 money supply chart. Source: The Kobeissi
Letter/X
Recent buyers show new “hodling behavior”
Newer Bitcoin investors are showing signs of maturing behavior
as the bull market drawdown persists.
The latest findings from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant
reveal accumulation taking over for the older half of the
short-term holder (STH) cohort.
STH entities are those who bought BTC up to six months ago. Per
CryptoQuant, investors hodling between three and six months are now
entering “accumulation” by refusing to succumb to panic selling,
despite potentially being underwater on their stack.
“According to the latest data, the percentage of coins held for
3 to 6 months has been rising rapidly, mirroring the accumulation
patterns observed during the prolonged correction in the summer of
2024,” contributor ShayanBTC wrote in one of its
“Quicktake”
blog posts on March 16.
“This trend highlights a hodling behavior, where
investors refrain from selling their Bitcoin despite the current
market correction.”
Bitcoin realized cap by UTXO age (screenshot). Source:
CryptoQuant
An accompanying chart shows Bitcoin’s realized cap split by the
age of unspent transaction output (UTXOs). This reflects the total
value of coins based on the price at which they last moved, with
those dormant for between three and six months rising rapidly.
“Historically, this type of resilience among Bitcoin holders has
played a crucial role in forming market bottoms and igniting new
uptrends,” the post continues.
“As long-term holders continue accumulating, the
available supply in circulation decreases, making Bitcoin more
scarce. When demand eventually picks up, this supply squeeze often
leads to price surges, pushing Bitcoin toward new record
highs.”
As Cointelegraph
reported, however, STH buyers from 2025 have exhibited
strikingly different reactions to the BTC price drop, selling coins
with a combined $100 million loss since the start of February
alone.
$126,000 BTC price by June?
Network economist Timothy Peterson’s historically accurate BTC
price metric, Lowest Price Forward, recently gave 95% odds of
BTC/USD never dropping below
$69,000 again.
Now, another
calculation sees the potential for new all-time highs by the
start of June.
Bitcoin seasonal comparison. Source: Timothy
Peterson/X
Comparing BTC price performance since 2015 at the weekend,
Peterson described Bitcoin as currently being “near the low end” of
what remains a standard range.
The next two months, however, should be critical — April is
historically one of the two best months for the Bitcoin bull
market.
“Nearly all of Bitcoin's annual performance occurs in 2 months:
April and October,” Peterson commented.
“It is entirely possible Bitcoin could reach a new
all-time high before June.”
Bitcoin growth of $100 comparison. Source: Timothy
Peterson/X
Further analysis produced a BTC price target of $126,000 as an
average level that Bitcoin could still attain within the next
two-and-a-half months.
$70,000 marks a key “FUD” watershed
When it comes to BTC price predictions, social media analysis is
giving research firm Santiment cause to pay attention to two levels
in particular.
Related: Bitcoin reclaims $80K zone as BNB, TON, GT, ATOM
hint at altcoin season
In its latest investigation, Santiment tied $69,000 and $100,000
to extremes in market outlook.
“Over the past month, we have not seen Bitcoin's market value
fall below $70K OR rise above $100K,” it summarized on
X.
“That means looking at the crowd's social predictions
of $100K is a great gauge for FOMO. Historically, markets move the
opposite direction of the crowd's expectations.”
Bitcoin social media data. Source: Santiment/X
Accompanying data examined social media mentions of various BTC
price levels.
“This is why clusters of blue bars (representing $10K-$69K $BTC
predictions) so reliably foreshadow a reversal (or buy signal),
especially while markets are moving down and the crowd is getting
fearful,” Santiment explained.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source:
Alternative.me
The Crypto Fear & Greed
Index stood at 32/100 on March 17, out of its “extreme fear”
bracket and at its highest levels since Feb. 24.
This article does not
contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and
trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own
research when making a decision.
...
Continue reading Peak 'FUD' hints at $70K floor — 5
Things to know in Bitcoin this week
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Peak 'FUD' hints at $70K floor — 5 Things to know in
Bitcoin this week appeared first on
CoinTelegraph.
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