-- Private businesses added 166k jobs in September, says ADP
-- Government shutdown, if brief, should have no impact on
jobs
-- Current modest job growth "is not consistent" with
tapering
(Adds details throughout.)
By Kathleen Madigan
Businesses added jobs at a moderate pace September, according to
a tally of private-sector hiring released Wednesday.
Private-sector jobs in the U.S. increased by 166,000 in
September, according to a national employment report calculated by
payroll processor Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) and
forecasting firm Moody's Analytics.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected ADP to
report a higher September increase of 178,000 jobs. The August ADP
employment increase was revised to 159,000 from 176,000 reported a
month ago.
"The job market appears to have softened in recent months.
Fiscal austerity has begun to take a toll on job creation," the
report said.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, which compiles
the ADP data, said the federal government shutdown is unlikely to
show up in the jobs data unless it extends past mid-October and
runs up against efforts to raise the U.S. debt ceiling.
He said the first sign of economic stress could be a sell-off in
financial markets. But he added, that could be good since falling
stock prices could push political leaders to come to agreements on
the budget and debt limit.
The ADP estimate is typically released ahead of the Bureau of
Labor Statistics' employment situation report on the following
Friday. But the shutdown will likely delay the release of the
September payrolls report.
In a survey taken before the shutdown, economists expected
September nonfarm payrolls to increase 181,000 and the jobless rate
to hold at 7.3%. The BLS data include government workers; the ADP
numbers don't.
With the payrolls report delayed, the ADP report grows in
importance as a timely measure of the labor markets. The general
tone of the ADP report indicates hiring by the private sector eased
last month, perhaps limited by worries about the federal budget and
rising interest rates.
Zandi said the current trend in monthly job gains between
150,000 and 175,000 "is not consistent" with the Federal Reserve
starting to taper its bond-buying program. "We need to 200,000 or
so before policymakers act," he said, especially in light of the
uncertainty brought by the shutdown.
While the Fed could act at its December meeting, "it feels to me
that [tapering] will be early next year," Zandi said.
According to ADP, firms employing between 1-49 workers increased
payrolls 74,000 in September. Medium-sized businesses with payrolls
of 50-499 workers added 28,000 employees. Large firms, businesses
with 500 or more employees, hired 64,000 workers.
Service-sector jobs increased by 147,000 last month, while the
factory sector added a slim 1,000 new positions. Financial services
cut 4,000 jobs.
Another report covering the September labor markets echoed the
ADP survey.
Bright.com estimates 164,000 new jobs were created last month.
The job search engine company uses its aggregation of job postings
along with government, financial, real estate, and other data
sources.
ADP, of Roseland, N.J., offers payroll processing, human
resource and benefit administration services to about 600,000
clients worldwide. Economics firm Moody's Analytics is a subsidiary
of Moody's Corporation.
--Write to Kathleen Madigan at kathleen.madigan@wsj.com