By Justin Baer
An urgent call reached Ronald O'Hanley, State Street Corp.'s
chief executive, as he sat in his office in downtown Boston. It was
8 a.m. on Monday, March 16.
A senior deputy told him corporate treasurers and pension
managers, panicked by the growing economic damage from the Covid-19
pandemic, were pulling billions of dollars from certain
money-market funds. This was forcing the funds to try to sell some
of the bonds they held.
But there were almost no buyers. Everybody was suddenly
desperate for cash.
He and the deputy, asset-management executive Cyrus
Taraporevala, had spoken the night before, wrestling with how
investors would respond to an emergency interest-rate cut from the
Federal Reserve.
Now, they had their answer. In his 34 years in finance, Mr.
O'Hanley had weathered plenty of meltdowns, but never one like
this.
"The market is fearing the worst," Mr. O'Hanley told him.
March 16 was the day a microscopic virus brought the financial
system to the brink. Few realized how close it came to going over
the edge entirely.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged nearly 13% that day,
the second-biggest one-day fall in history. Stock-market volatility
spiked to a record high. I nvestors struggled to unload even safe
bonds, like Treasurys. Companies and government officials were
losing access to the lending markets on which they rely to make
payroll and build schools.
Prime money-market funds that are owned by big institutional
investors and buy a lot of short-term corporate debt -- normally
safe and boring -- had outflows of $60 billion in the week ending
that Wednesday, financial-data firm Refinitiv said, among the worst
ever. Some $56 billion in client money fled bond funds.
Interest rates on short-term corporate debt surged, peaking on
March 25 at 2.43 percentage points above the federal-funds rate --
the highest it has been since October 2008, according to the
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
The financial system has endured numerous credit crunches and
market crashes, and memories of the 1987 and 2008 crises set a high
bar for market dysfunction. But longtime investors and those who
make a living on Wall Street say mid-March of this year was far
more severe in a short period. Moreover, the stresses to the
financial system were broader than many had seen.
"The 2008 financial crisis was a car crash in slow motion," said
Adam Lollos, head of short-term credit at Citigroup Inc. "This was
like, 'Boom!' "
A barrage of government programs has since pulled the system
back from collapse. This account of what happened on one of the
worst days the financial markets have ever seen, from many of the
executives, money managers and Wall Street veterans who lived it,
shows why the rescue effort was so urgent.
The Federal Reserve set the stage for the downturn on Sunday,
March 15. Most investors were expecting the central bank to
announce its latest response to the crisis the following Wednesday.
Instead, it announced at 5 p.m. that evening that it was slashing
interest rates and planning to buy $700 billion in bonds to help
unclog the markets.
Rather than take comfort in the Fed's actions, many companies,
governments, bankers and investors viewed the decision as reason to
prepare for the worst possible outcome from the coronavirus
pandemic.
A downdraft in bonds was now a rout.
Mr. O'Hanley was in a good position to see the crisis unfold.
His bank provides vital, if unheralded, administrative and
bookkeeping services for most of the world's biggest investors, and
runs its own trillion-dollar money manager.
Companies and pension managers have long relied on money-market
funds that invest in short-term corporate and municipal-debt
holdings considered safe and liquid enough to be classified as
"cash equivalents." They function almost like checking accounts --
helping firms manage payroll, pay office leases and move cash
around to finance their daily operations.
But that Monday, investors no longer believed certain money
funds were cash-like at all. As they pulled their money out,
managers struggled to sell bonds to meet redemptions.
In theory, there should have been some give in the system. U.S.
regulators had rewritten the rules on money funds in the wake of
the 2008 financial crisis, replacing their fixed, $1 price with a
floating one that moved with the value of their holdings. The
changes headed off the panic that could ensue when a fund's price
"breaks the buck," as one prominent fund had in 2008.
But the rules couldn't stop a panicked assault like this one.
Rumors circulated that some of State Street's rivals would be
forced to prop up their funds. Within days, both Goldman Sachs
Group Inc. and Bank of New York Mellon Corp. stepped in to buy
assets from their money funds. Both firms declined to comment.
This was bad news for not only those funds and their investors,
but also for the thousands of companies and communities dependent
on short-term loan markets to pay their employees. "If junk bonds
back up, people can rationalize that away," Mr. O'Hanley said.
"There's very little ability to rationalize trouble in cash.
A debt-investing unit of Prudential Financial Inc., one of the
largest insurance companies in the world, was also struggling with
normally safe securities.
When traders at PGIM Fixed Income tried that Monday to sell a
batch of short-term bonds issued by highly rated companies, they
found few takers. And banks were reluctant to step in as
intermediaries.
"The broker-dealer community was frozen," said Michael Collins,
a senior fixed-income manager at PGIM. "It was as bad as at any
point during the great financial crisis."
Across the country in southern California, the head of the
debt-trading desk at investment firm Capital Group Cos., Vikram
Rao, tried to make sense of the dysfunction.
Mr. Rao, who was working remotely that Monday, walked down the
20 steps to his home office at 4:30 a.m. to discover the debt
markets were already in disarray. He started calling the senior
Wall Street executives he knew at many of the big banks.
Executives told him that Sunday's emergency Fed rate cut had
swung a swath of interest-rate swap contracts in banks' favor.
Companies had locked in superlow interest rates on future debt
sales over the past year. But when rates fell even further, the
companies suddenly owed additional collateral.
On that Monday, banks had to account for all that new collateral
as assets on their books.
So when Mr. Rao called senior executives for an explanation on
why they wouldn't trade, they had the same refrain: There was no
room to buy bonds and other assets and still remain in compliance
with tougher guidelines imposed by regulators after the previous
financial crisis. In other words, capital rules intended to make
the financial system safer were, at least in this instance,
draining liquidity from the markets.
One senior bank executive leveled with him: "We can't bid on
anything that adds to the balance sheet right now."
At the same time, the surge in stock-market volatility, along
with falling prices on mortgage bonds, had forced margin calls on
many investment funds. The additional collateral they owed banks
was also booked as assets, adding billions more.
The slump in mortgage bonds was so vast it crushed a group of
investors that had borrowed from banks to juice their returns:
real-estate investment funds.
The Fed's bond-buying program, unveiled that Sunday, had
earmarked some $200 billion for mortgage-bond purchases. But by
Monday bond managers discovered the Fed purchases, while
well-intentioned, weren't nearly enough.
"On that first day, the Fed got completely run over by the
market," said Dan Ivascyn, who manages one of the world's biggest
bond funds and serves as investment chief at Pacific Investment
Management Co. "That's where REITs and other leveraged-mortgage
products started getting into serious trouble."
That Tuesday, UBS Group AG closed two exchange-traded notes tied
to mortgage real-estate investment trusts. By Friday, a mortgage
trust run by hedge-fund firm Angelo Gordon & Co. had warned its
lenders it wouldn't be able to meet its obligations on future
margin calls.
For decades investors have eagerly scooped up state and local
government bonds month after month, week after week, every week.
But that came to a standstill in mid-March.
Terrified investors ditched municipal debt at fire-sale prices,
underwriters canceled billions of dollars worth of deals and new
borrowing stopped. There was less bond issuance in the week of
March 16 than at any point during the 2008 financial crisis, the
2001 terrorist attacks or the week of 1987's Black Monday,
according to Refinitiv data, adjusted for inflation.
For those few days in March, investors lost faith in America's
public infrastructure. As schools and universities shut down and
airports and public transit systems emptied out, the market began
to question what had been previously considered gold-plated bets on
the core institutions that make up community life in the
country.
The deep trouble in the market was clear early on the morning of
March 16.
Cities and states often rely on short-term debt issued through
bond dealers, who then resell the securities to investors. Billions
of dollars of that paper was up for resale the following day.
Rates, which had been around 1.28%, looked like they could reach
6%.
At the same time, long-term municipal-bond deals were being
pulled. Over the course of the week Citigroup Inc., the
second-biggest underwriter in the municipal market, wouldn't launch
a single new bond.
Staff at Citigroup's municipal markets division worked in
various locations that day, some from home, some from the bank's
Manhattan headquarters and some from a backup office in Rutherford,
N.J. Throughout the day, Citi representatives called finance
officers in state and local government to deliver the bad news:
Their short-term borrowing costs were about to spike. And longer
deals were on hold.
Patrick Brett, head of municipal debt capital markets at the
firm, was making his calls from a rustic house on a forested
ridgeline in the Catskills. He booked the Airbnb in March a few
days after the head of the Port Authority of New York and New
Jersey, a major municipal borrower, confirmed publicly that he had
tested positive for coronavirus.
That weekend Mr. Brett and his family left Brooklyn in a gray
Chevy Suburban so packed with supplies that Mr. Brett's
father-in-law had to balance a 12-pack of paper towels on his
lap.
From a makeshift office, he spent Monday in back-to-back phone
calls. That night, he would write his first of many crisis updates
to state and local government finance officials around the country.
In his mind, this was worse than 2008. "I don't think anyone alive
has experienced anything more violent," he said in an email to the
Journal.
Citi bankers had reached out to Larry Hammel, finance chief of
the Forsyth County school district, the previous week as the muni
market began to dry up. The district had planned to sell nearly
$150 million in bonds on March 17 so it could keep construction
going on four desperately needed new schools.
When Citi advised putting the deal on hold for a while, Mr.
Hammel huddled with his chief facilities officer and the two men
did the math. Without the cash infusion the district had expected
from the bonds, construction would halt in July.
"It's one of those days where you just go home and say 'It's
either going to be beer or wine,'" Mr. Hammel said.
He began discussions with a local bank about whether the
district might be able to secure a bridge loan to keep school
construction going. It wasn't until March 30 that the bonds
eventually sold, largely thanks to government programs that brought
markets back from the brink.
The liquidity panic quickly leaked into the stock market. Thomas
Peterffy, chairman of Interactive Brokers Group, an electronic
brokerage popular with day traders, had trouble sleeping Sunday
night. He would wake up, grab his iPhone and get another dire
update on where stock futures were trading. They dropped 5%, the
most allowed in a single session.
By the time Mr. Peterffy started work on Monday morning from his
home in Palm Beach, Fla., many investors had been forced to sell
their positions because they didn't have enough cash on hand to
maintain them.
He repeatedly asked his team how big the losses in clients'
accounts were, which bets had soured, and how much money
Interactive Brokers could be on the hook for if they didn't make
good.
"As the day went on, more and more [positions] were liquidated,"
Mr. Peterffy said.
Adding to the tumult, Mr. Peterffy said, were the options bets
against volatility.
For more than a decade, markets had been generally calm. A
wildly popular bet for traders large and small was that they would
remain so. But volatility had been mounting since late February. By
March 16, it was at a roar.
The Cboe Volatility Index, known as Wall Street's "fear gauge,"
lurched higher during the day and closed at its highest level on
record of 82.69.
It didn't help that the virus that morning had closed the
trading floor in Chicago where many options are bought and sold.
Old-fashioned trading using shouting and hand signals has dwindled
for most markets around the country, but Cboe Global Markets'
open-outcry pits are typically bustling with human traders.
Cboe had made the call to close the floor on Thursday as a
precautionary measure, and executives spent Saturday working with
brokers to test the all-electronic trading market ahead of its
debut on Monday morning. The tests went well, but Sunday's selloff
in stock futures had brought new complications, said Chris
Isaacson, Cboe's chief operating officer. After S&P 500 futures
hit their maximum decline, Cboe opted to delay the premarket
trading.
While Cboe had sent most its employees to work from home that
week, Mr. Isaacson went into the firm's Kansas City offices that
Monday to monitor the market along with the technology and
operations staff.
The stock futures selloff never let up, so options tied to the
same benchmark remained in lockdown all Monday morning, waiting for
the 9:30 a.m. opening. By then, Mr. Isaacson and his team knew what
was coming next: "The market was going to have a rocky opening," he
said.
Some options opened right on time only to be halted one second
later, when the selloff on the stock market triggered its
circuit-breaker.
"It was one of the most intense mornings of my career," Mr.
Isaacson said.
Malachite Capital Management, a New York hedge-fund firm, didn't
make it past Tuesday. On March 17, the firm said it would shut
down, blaming the "extreme adverse market conditions of recent
weeks." The losses were also extreme for others that traded on
volatility. At JD Capital Management LLC, a hedge-fund firm founded
by Goldman Sachs veteran J. David Rogers, the firm's Tempo
Volatility Fund lost 75% or more for the month of March.
That same Monday, traders at Allianz Global Investors, a
money-management arm of the German insurance giant, were struggling
to restructure their own batch of disastrous options trades.
Allianz's Structured Alpha funds had been a big seller of
insurance against a market selloff in the short term and a buyer
over the longer term. The strategy produced a steady income, as the
fund collected premiums from investors hedging against a downturn.
The funds might lose money for a month during a selloff as they
restructured those short-term trades, Greg Tournant, the funds'
portfolio manager, said during a May 2016 marketing video, but over
time they'd make money.
"We are acting like an insurance company, collecting premiums,"
Mr. Tournant said. "When there is a catastrophic event, we might
have to pay -- very much like an insurance company. The positions
we buy to protect ourselves from those catastrophic shocks -- you
could label those as reinsurance."
When the big storm arrived in March, though, the strategy didn't
work.
As options contracts swung dramatically, Allianz managers
scrambled to restructure their trades. They struggled to keep up;
the stock market was spiraling lower at a pace the managers didn't
expect.
On March 25, Allianz informed investors that two of its
Structured Alpha hedge funds that managed nearly $2.3 billion would
be liquidated.
Allianz executives told investors that one of the funds was down
about 97% since the start of the year, one person familiar with the
matter said. Even after a March 25 conference call with Allianz,
some investors said, they were still unsure what exactly went
wrong.
Allianz didn't tell them how much money they'd get back, or when
to expect it. One investor said he's still waiting.
--Heather Gillers and Gunjan Banerji contributed to this
article.--Photo illustration at top by WSJ; Photo: Getty Images
Write to Justin Baer at justin.baer@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 20, 2020 09:59 ET (13:59 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.