Saudi Foreign Reserves Drop in April on Wealth-Fund Transfer
31 Maio 2020 - 8:10PM
Dow Jones News
By Stephen Kalin
RIYADH -- Saudi Arabia's foreign reserves dropped sharply in
April as the kingdom kept its peg with the U.S. dollar steady while
transferring a chunk to its sovereign-wealth fund to bet on stocks
beaten down by the coronavirus pandemic.
The kingdom's reserves in recent years have hovered around the
$500 billion level, held by its central bank in mostly low-risk
assets such as U.S. Treasurys. The implied stability allowed
officials to maintain the Saudi riyal's peg to the dollar and
demonstrate the kingdom's financial strength as it raised billions
in debt to help fund an ambitious spending plan.
Total foreign reserve assets fell by $24.7 billion in April to
about $448.6 billion, according to the latest data posted Sunday by
the central bank, known as the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority.
They had fallen by $23.9 billion in March -- the largest
single-month drop going back two decades.
That decline came as the central bank transferred $40 billion to
the Public Investment Fund over March and April for a buying spree
of international stocks amid the financial fallout of the pandemic.
Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan has indicated the
transfer was a one-off transaction to take advantage of the
opportunity.
However, it opens the doors for further such disbursements and
weakens the central bank's safety net as oil prices remain low and
the pandemic drags on, analysts and bankers say.
"It's not as if, for example, there is a pocket of SAMA reserves
that we know are never going to be touched as long as the peg is
there," said Hasnain Malik, a Dubai-based emerging-markets equities
strategist at Tellimer. "And we don't know how big PIF is going to
be built up."
It is widely accepted, based on domestic money supply, that
Saudi Arabia would need around $300 billion to maintain the peg.
SAMA was forced to reiterate its commitment to the peg in May after
March's decline prompted some investors to bet against it.
Moreover, Saudi Arabia needs the money to keep its economy
ticking.
Under de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the
kingdom is attempting to reshape its oil-dependent economy by
boosting the private sector. But the government still depends
heavily on crude sales to help finance its budget. It is expected
to draw down from foreign reserves to fill a deficit expected at
nearly 13% of output this year due to low oil prices and the
coronavirus-induced slowdown. In a sign of its precarious financial
position, the government tripled its value-added tax rate,
eliminated allowances for state workers and cut spending on
headline projects.
Prince Mohammed tasked PIF in 2015 with diversifying the
country's economy by investing in companies and industries
untethered to hydrocarbons.
The centerpiece of that plan -- selling 5% of state oil giant
Aramco, known officially as Saudi Arabian Oil Co., on an
international exchange -- was supposed to inject up to $100 billion
into PIF's coffers for foreign acquisitions. After repeated delays,
Aramco offered just 1.5% of its shares on the Riyadh bourse,
generating about $30 billion.
"PIF couldn't do much with the proceeds of the Aramco share sale
because the majority of this money came from the banking system
inside Saudi Arabia," said Mazen al-Sudairi, head of research at
Riyadh-based Al Rajhi Capital.
Another strategy to fund PIF's investments -- selling the fund's
stake in national petrochemicals firm Sabic to Aramco for $69.1
billion -- also has fallen short as Aramco seeks to lower the
valuation.
"The drop in foreign reserves was absorbable, and an injection
from SAMA reserves was the fastest way to access cash," Mr.
al-Sudairi added.
PIF in the first quarter bought roughly half-a-billion-dollar
stakes in each of Facebook Inc., Walt Disney Co. and Marriott
International Inc., according to a U.S. regulatory filing in May.
It also acquired shares worth a similar amount in Cisco Systems
Inc., Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp., Carnival Corp. and
Live Nation Entertainment Inc. It bought a stake worth $714 million
in Boeing Co.
Most other sovereign-wealth funds in the region were also seeded
with foreign reserves, but relatively high oil prices over the
years ensured a steady inflow of U.S. dollars for their state
owners. PIF itself received about $27 billion worth of riyals from
the central bank in 2016.
The concern with PIF's bold strategy -- piling into global
stocks including in hard-hit industries like travel and
entertainment, even as few other funds appear to be buying -- is
that it risks gambling away what is increasingly a finite pool of
capital at the kingdom's disposal.
"The optics appear unhelpful given the recent announcement for a
substantial hike in VAT and ongoing fiscal austerity," said Tarek
Fadlallah, Middle East chief executive at Nomura Asset
Management.
Write to Stephen Kalin at stephen.kalin@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 31, 2020 18:55 ET (22:55 GMT)
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