Bitcoin ETF Options Set To Supercharge Price Volatility, Expert Warns
08 Outubro 2024 - 11:00AM
NEWSBTC
The Bitcoin price volatility is likely to surge in both directions
following the recent approval of options for spot Bitcoin ETFs,
according to Jeff Park, head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise
Investments. In an interview with Anthony Pompliano, Park explained
how these newly available options differ from existing crypto
derivatives and why they could significantly impact the Bitcoin
market dynamics. Why Bitcoin ETF Options Are A Game Changer Park
outlined a comprehensive thesis in the interview, noting,
“Volatility is not just a static measure of past performance; it
reflects the distribution of potential outcomes and the severity of
those outcomes.” He emphasized that the introduction of Bitcoin ETF
options will bring new dimensions to how traders interact with
Bitcoin, potentially amplifying both price rises and falls. This
volatility, he argued, stems from the unique characteristics of
options as financial instruments. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Puell
Multiple Signals A Bullish Surge: Could A New ATH Be Near? While
Bitcoin options are not entirely new—offshore platforms like
Deribit and LedgerX already offer similar instruments—ETF options
introduce a regulated market overseen by US authorities like the
CFTC and SEC. This makes a profound difference, according to Park,
because “removal of counterparty risk is something that crypto has
not fully solved offshore.” He noted that the clearing mechanisms
provided by the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) bring added
security to these trades, which institutional investors have long
demanded. More importantly, Park highlighted the advantage of
cross-collateralization, which is not available on existing
platforms that cater exclusively to crypto.
“Cross-collateralization allows traders to use non-correlated
assets, such as gold ETFs, as collateral in Bitcoin trades,” he
explained. This flexibility increases liquidity and efficiency in
the market. “You can’t do this on Deribit or any purely
crypto-focused platform,” Park emphasized, calling it a “huge
unlock” for the Bitcoin derivatives market. Park anticipates that
the introduction of these options will magnify Bitcoin’s price
swings. “For any well-functioning and liquid market, you need
organic buyers and sellers to create natural demand and supply,” he
explained. However, the real impact comes from how dealers hedge
their positions, especially when they are “short gamma,” a
condition where their hedging activities can intensify price
movements. In practical terms, Park said, “Dealers who are short
gamma must buy more Bitcoin as prices rise and sell more as prices
fall, thereby adding to the volatility.” This dynamic is crucial to
understanding how ETF options could push Bitcoin’s price to
extremes in both directions. He also pointed out that,
historically, most Bitcoin options activity has been driven by
speculation, rather than risk management strategies like covered
calls, which tend to reduce volatility. Related Reading: Here’s
Where We Are In The Bitcoin Bull Cycle According To The Wall Street
Cheat Sheet One of Park’s key points was the dramatic growth
potential for Bitcoin’s derivatives market. In traditional markets
like equities, the derivatives market is often 10 times larger than
the underlying spot market. In contrast, Bitcoin’s open interest in
derivatives currently represents just 3% of its spot market value,
according to Park’s figures. “The introduction of ETF options could
lead to a 300x increase in Bitcoin’s derivatives market size,” Park
predicted. This growth would bring substantial new liquidity but
would likely also drive volatility higher, due to the larger volume
of speculative trades and the structural leverage introduced by
options. “That’s an astronomical number for which there’s going to
be new flows and liquidity coming into this market which will
likely therefore add volatility,” Park stated. “In the global
economy, derivatives markets are far larger than the spot markets,”
he added, pointing to the fact that in traditional asset classes
like equities and commodities, derivatives play a critical role in
risk management and speculation. “Bitcoin is moving toward a
similar structure, and that’s where we’ll see the most significant
price movements and liquidity,” Park concluded. At press time, BTC
traded at $62,334. Featured image from YouTube, chart from
TradingView.com
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