Bitcoin Top Here? What Historical HODLer Selloff Pattern Says
17 Dezembro 2024 - 7:00AM
NEWSBTC
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin long-term holders are selling.
Here’s whether the current level of selloff is enough for a price
top or not. Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Have Been Selling Big
Recently In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has discussed
about the historical trend in the holdings of the long-term holders
relative to the Bitcoin top. The “long-term holders” (LTHs) refer
to the BTC investors who have been holding onto their coins for
more than 155 days. The LTHs represent one of the two main
divisions of the BTC market done on the basis of holding time, with
the other group being known as the short-term holders (STHs).
Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Now In Selling Mode For A Year:
Should You Be Concerned? Historically, the latter cohort has proven
to contain the weak hands of the market, while the former is made
up of the HODLers who barely react to rallies and crashes in the
price. As such, selling from the STHs is usually not of any note,
but that from the LTHs can be, as it’s not a particularly common
event. One way to keep track of the behavior of the diamond hands
is through their Net Position Change. The Net Position Change is an
on-chain metric that measures the total amount of Bitcoin entering
into or exiting out of the LTH cohort. Below is the chart for the
indicator shared by the analyst that shows the trend in its value
over the history of the cryptocurrency. As displayed in the above
graph, the Bitcoin LTH Net Position Change has witnessed a sharp
decline into the negative territory in recent weeks, which implies
a net amount of supply has been leaving the cohort. This isn’t the
first time this year that the indicator has shown this trend, as
something similar was also observed back during the first quarter
of this year. In the chart, Martinez has highlighted this and the
other older instances of this trend occurring. It would seem that
the major selloffs from the LTHs have generally coincided with some
sort of top in the cryptocurrency. “Interestingly, in 2017 and
2021, their biggest sell-offs occurred right before the final leg
up,” notes the analyst. Related Reading: Bitcoin Derivatives Market
Heating Up Again: Brace For Impact? Thus, if the current bull
market is going to show anything similar, then it’s possible that
the current LTH selloff may in fact only be the start of that final
leg up that’s going to lead to the cyclical top for Bitcoin. The
indicator is also currently not as negative as during the largest
red spikes of the 2017 and 2021 bull runs, which could be another
indication that the top isn’t in just yet. It only remains to be
seen, though, whether the same pattern would repeat this time as
well or not. BTC Price Bitcoin is back in all-time high (ATH)
discovery mode as its price has just set a new record above the
$107,000 milestone. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com,
chart from TradingView.com
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