CHICAGO, April 15, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- While California's four-year drought is forcing the
most severe mandatory water restrictions in the state's history,
another water crisis is brewing that will affect far more people
and a much greater territory – the planet at large.
According to a global study by the International Food Policy
Research Institute (IFPRI) and Veolia, the world is on a path
toward rapidly deteriorating water quality in many countries.
The first-of-its-kind study indicates that up to 1 in 3 people will
be exposed to a high risk of water pollution in 2050 from increased
amounts of nitrogen and phosphorous. Up to 1 in 5 people will
be exposed to a high risk of water pollution reflected by increased
levels of biochemical oxygen demand (BOD).
"The global water crisis is not science fiction," notes
Ed Pinero, senior vice president,
sustainability, Veolia North America. "The evidence of drought in
the United States and in many
parts of the world – lack of rain or snowfall, drying rivers and
lakes, water shortages, and water restrictions – is real enough.
Now we're seeing how the impacts of high levels of organic
pollutants can affect our health and society."
Even using the most optimistic socio-economic models, water
quality is projected to rapidly deteriorate over the next several
decades which, in turn, will increase risks to human health,
economic development and thousands of aquatic ecosystems in
developed and developing economies alike. The new study
follows previous substantial research conducted by the two
organizations indicating that half of world's population (52% of
the global population or 4.8 billion people), approximately half
(49%) of global grain production and 45% of total GDP ($63 trillion) will be at risk due to water stress
by 2050 unless more sustainable water resource management practices
are adopted.
"Globally, more people will be living in areas at a high risk of
water pollution in 2050 due to increased loadings of pollutants,"
explains Claudia Ringler, deputy
division director of IFPRI's Environment and Production Technology
Division. "Our study examined the effects of increased nitrogen,
phosphorous and BOD as human population, agriculture activity and
economic development accelerates. We also examined potential
impacts through the lens of established climate change
models. While these nutrients occur naturally in the
environment and, in fact, help sustain aquatic life, too much of a
good thing is bad. The study's results should be alarming to
scientists, policy makers and citizens alike. Already, too many
people are exposed to high risks associated with these
pollutants."
A major consequence of excessive nitrogen and phosphorous in
water bodies is eutrophication, when algae grow faster than normal,
killing other aquatic life by depleting oxygen. In addition, the
presence of nitrogen-based compounds in drinking water can be
harmful to human health. High levels of nitrates can have
particularly harmful effects on infants through the so-called
"blue-baby" syndrome. Prolonged intake of high levels of nitrates
by adults can also lead to gastric problems.
Ringler says the study also demonstrates how water quality
issues compound water quantity problems and amplify the need to
simultaneously address both issues.
The global study uniquely links and layers socio-economic
projections, climate change predictions, and projections for
agricultural production with biophysical water quality modeling
developed by IFPRI and Veolia, the world's largest environmental
and water company. Regions most affected by the studied
pollutants (BOD, nitrogen and phosphorous) are densely populated,
large agricultural production centers.
"The massive algal bloom in Lake
Erie that triggered serious health concerns last year over
safe drinking water is a very real example," says Pinero. "When
both water quantity and water quality are at risk, it's a recipe
for even greater challenges because poor water quality further
reduces the amount of available water."
Pinero points out that while nitrogen and phosphorous are
already a serious problem in many waterways, the study indicates
nitrogen and phosphorous loadings will increase substantially
through 2050.
Nitrogen and phosphorous are naturally occurring nutrients that
support the growth of algae and aquatic plants. When their levels
are too high, both become pollutants and deplete oxygen from water,
causing algae to grow faster than an ecosystem can handle, which
produces elevated toxins and bacteria in water and creates
compounds in drinking water that can be harmful to human health. A
wide range of human activities, ranging from farming to wastewater
treatment, contribute to the growing problem.
Biochemical oxygen demand is the amount of dissolved oxygen
required by microorganisms to break down organic material in water.
It measures the level of organic pollutants in water.
"Most of us think that water pollution is the result of
chemicals," Pinero explains. "In the case of nitrogen and
phosphorous, both are naturally occurring and appear to be almost
harmless until there's a shock to the system."
Pinero says that as population grows and the quality of life
improves, demand for water, food and sanitation will increase.
"These demands, especially with growing urbanization, will lead to
increased discharges of nitrogen, phosphorus and elevated levels of
BOD. A polluted water source is almost like having no water
resource due to the high chemical, energy and treatment costs
associated with making that water available and useable
again. The good news is that there are many solutions
stemming from technology, best practices and social behavior that
give hope to minimizing the adverse impacts," Pinero says.
Key findings include:
- Regions most affected include densely populated, large
agricultural production centers. The largest levels of these
pollutants are discharged in northern and eastern China, and parts of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. The Midwestern United States,
central Europe and central-eastern
South America also generate high
levels of nitrogen and phosphorous loads.
- The most rapid increases in exposure to pollutants will occur
in low- and lower-middle income countries due to higher population
and economic growth.
- By 2050, a drier climate change scenario – coupled with medium
levels of income and population growth – projects that 1 in 3
people will be at high risk of nitrogen pollution (2.6 billion
people or an increase of 172%); 1 in 3 people will be at high risk
of phosphorous pollution (2.9 billion people or an increase of
129%); and 1 in 5 people will be at high risk of water pollution
from BOD (1.6 billion people or an increase of 144%).
- Using the same data under a wetter climate change scenario
produces similar results, with 1 in 4 people at high risk of
nitrogen pollution, 1 in 3 people at high risk of phosphorous
pollution, and 1 in 6 people at high risk of water pollution from
BOD.
Solutions exist that can improve both social and ecological
resilience. Greater adoption of sustainable agricultural methods
can help – including enhanced nutrient use efficiency, phased out
fertilizer subsidies, no-till or reduced tillage and other
conservation measures, and closing the nutrient cycle.
Sustainable solutions also exist for cities and industry,
including more aggressive investment in wastewater treatment,
increased recycling and reuse, green infrastructure, the
establishment of markets for nutrient credit trading, governance
models based more on watersheds and less on traditional political
borders, and improved home design to minimize pollution.
The study and related information graphics are available as a
white paper on the Veolia North America web site
www.veolianorthamerica.com.
The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
seeks sustainable solutions for ending hunger and poverty. IFPRI is
one of 15 centers supported by the Consultative Group on
International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), an alliance of 64
governments, private foundations, and international and regional
organizations. The study was carried out under the Water, Land and
Ecosystem research program of CGIAR.
Veolia group is the global leader in optimized resource
management. With over 179,000 employees* worldwide, the Group
designs and provides water, waste and energy management solutions
that contribute to the sustainable development of communities and
industries. Through its three complementary business activities,
Veolia helps to develop access to resources, preserve available
resources, and to replenish them. In 2014, the Veolia group
supplied 96 million people with drinking water and 60 million
people with wastewater service, produced 52 million megawatt hours
of energy and converted 31 million metric tons of waste into new
materials and energy. Veolia Environnement (listed on Paris
Euronext: VIE) recorded consolidated revenue of $29.6 billion* in 2014. www.veolia.com
(*) 2014 pro-forma figures, including Dalkia International
(100%) and excluding Dalkia France.
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SOURCE Veolia