S&P Global Mobility projects that
February 2024 will realize a slight
rebound from the slow January result, but new vehicle sales levels
remain tepid.
SOUTHFIELD, Mich., Feb. 27,
2024 /PRNewswire/ -- With volume for the month
projected at 1.22 million units, February
2024 U.S. auto sales are estimated to translate to an
estimated sales pace of 15.5 million units (seasonally adjusted
annual rate: SAAR). This would be a step up from the chilly
15.0 million unit pace of January
2024 and reflective of the volatile nature of the current
auto demand environment.
Auto sales in February should recover
mildly from the January 2024 result,
but sustained momentum seems tough to come by
"We expect that auto sales in February should recover mildly
from the January 2024 result, but
sustained momentum seems tough to come by, given the current
purchase environment facing auto consumers," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P
Global Mobility. "While pricing, inventory and incentive trends are
seemingly moving in the correct directions, respectively, to
promote new vehicle sales growth, high interest rates and uncertain
economic conditions continue to push against any consistent upshift
for demand levels."
The S&P Global Mobility US auto outlook for 2024 reflects
sustained, but more moderate growth levels for light vehicle
sales. We expect production levels to continue to develop,
especially early in the year as some automakers look to continue to
restock in wake of production shutdowns late in 2023 and decent
December 2023 sales volume. The
advancing production levels sets the stage for incentives and
inventory to continue to develop, potentially enticing new vehicle
buyers who remain on the sidelines due to higher interest rates.
S&P Global Mobility projects calendar-year 2024 light vehicle
sales volume of 15.9 million units, a 3% increase from the 2023
tally.
U.S. Light Vehicle
Sales
|
|
|
Feb 24
(Est)
|
Jan
24
|
Feb
23
|
Total Light
Vehicle
|
Units, NSA
|
1,220,787
|
1,076,047
|
1,138,756
|
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
15.5
|
15.0
|
14.9
|
Light Truck
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
12.4
|
12.0
|
11.9
|
Passenger
Car
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
3.1
|
3.0
|
3.0
|
Source: S&P Global
Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
|
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales
remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility
light vehicle sales forecast. In the immediate term, some
month-to-month volatility is anticipated. February BEV share is
expected to reach 8.0%, similar to the month prior reading as
automakers, dealers and consumers continue to digest the changes to
IRA Federal tax credits to begin
the new year. BEV share is expected to advance over the next
several periods, pending the roll outs of vehicles such as the
Chevrolet Equinox EV, Honda Prologue and Fiat 500e, all scheduled
for market introductions over the first half of 2024.
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights
derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to
anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise
helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers,
and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive
innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping
customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE:
SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit
ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global
capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our
offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations
navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow,
today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
Media Contact:
Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility