SOUTHFIELD, Mich., Feb. 29,
2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Fueled by the resurgence of
the rental and leasing industry, US commercial vehicle
registrations (GVW 1-8) rose 14% in 2023 compared to 2022, with
more than 1.6 million commercial vehicles registered in 2023,
according to the latest analysis of new commercial vehicle
registration data from S&P Global Mobility. US commercial
registrations are also approaching pre-pandemic levels, as 2023 was
just 196,000 units shy of 2019 registrations.
US fleet industry trends in 2023
The
lease/rental industry was the fastest-growing vocation in 2023.
Some of the largest fleets experienced 40-60% decreases in new
registrations during the pandemic and have since recovered to
registration levels not seen since 2019. Class 2 saw a 21% increase
in registrations due to continued growth in construction and
last-mile delivery vehicles, with increases in pickup and cargo van
registrations.
Class 1 provided the only decrease in 2023, which is attributed
to almost all cargo vans now being registered as class 2
vehicles.
Year-over-year US commercial vehicle registrations, by
vehicle class/GVW
Class
|
2022 to 2023 %
Change
|
1
|
-18 %
|
2
|
21 %
|
3
|
16 %
|
4
|
12 %
|
5
|
1 %
|
6
|
18 %
|
7
|
9 %
|
8
|
8 %
|
Average
growth
|
14 %
|
Source: S&P Global
Mobility US commercial vehicle registration data,
2022-2023
|
© 2024 S&P Global
Mobility
|
Alternative Fuel Vehicles Starting to Take
Hold
Alternative fuel vehicles, electric and hybrid
powertrains are popular options for light-duty commercial vehicles
while compressed natural gas (CNG) and electric are becoming
popular alternative options for heavy-duty commercial vehicles.
Electric cargo vans continue to trend in last-mile delivery
applications, especially with fleets such as Amazon, Walmart,
Penske, and FedEx. There were more than 14,000 EV cargo vans
registered in 2023, according to the analysis, led by substantial
growth from Rivian. In addition, hybrid pickup trucks are becoming
a popular alternative to EV pickups in fleet applications due to
price and availability. The Ford Maverick continues to show
substantial growth for fleets, especially in the construction
industry. In addition, electric pickup launches expected from
Chevrolet and Ram should contribute to the EV and electrified
vehicle sales boom.
Compressed natural gas (CNG) and electric fuels in heavy-duty
vehicles (GVW 6-8) accounted for 6,800 registrations in 2023. CNG
is becoming a popular option for the sanitation and refuse
industry, with options from Peterbilt, Autocar, and Mack. General
freight short-haul tractor trucks have been the primary adopters of
EV for heavy-duty with launches from Freightliner, Volvo, BYD,
Orange EV, and Nikola leading the way.
Year-over-year US alternative fuel commercial vehicle
registrations, by class/GVW
Class
|
Year over year change
(2022-23)
|
1
|
63 %
|
2
|
94 %
|
3
|
74 %
|
4
|
25 %
|
5
|
9700 %
|
6
|
7 %
|
7
|
46 %
|
8
|
19 %
|
Average
growth
|
78 %
|
Source: S&P Global
Mobility US commercial vehicle registration data 2022 and
2023
|
© 2024 S&P Global
Mobility
|
Commercial Vehicle Forecasts Nearly Flat for 2024
For
2024, S&P Global Mobility forecasts sales of class 4-8
commercial vehicles to grow just slightly, with expected gains of
just 0.3% year-over-year (y/y). However, S&P Global
Mobility expects a single-digit percentage climb in Class 4-7
medium-duty trucks and vans, which will offset an expected y/y
slide in demand for new Class 8 trucks. Class 8 truck
tractors alone are expected to be down by 5-10% y/y, even as
straight trucks' demand is anticipated to remain strong with some
growth.
Even as the overall market pauses growth, new registrations of
zero-emissions and alternative fuel vehicles are expected to
accelerate markedly. Demand for natural-gas trucks and buses in
Class 4-8 is projected to repeat 2023 volumes, after a jump
compared to 2022. Additionally, US demand for electric trucks and
buses is forecast to more than double in 2024, as OEMs position to
meet CARB state requirements and early adopter fleets continue to
onboard the new technology. New registrations of
hydrogen-powered trucks and buses are to rise even faster, albeit
from a much lower 2023 base in unit terms.
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights
derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to
anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise
helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers,
and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive
innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping
customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE:
SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit
ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global
capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our
offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations
navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow,
today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
Media Contact:
Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility