S&P Global Mobility projects that US auto sales in March
will crest over 1.4 million units – just the second time since
May 2021 that monthly volume has
reached this level.
SOUTHFIELD, Mich., March 26,
2024 /PRNewswire/ -- With volume for the month
projected at 1.47 million units, March
2024 U.S. auto sales are estimated to translate to an
estimated sales pace of 15.8 million units (seasonally adjusted
annual rate: SAAR). This would bring the SAAR average in the first
quarter of the year to a level of 15.5 million units. While
progress from a year-ago reading of 15 million units, it would
reflect a step down from the 15.7 million unit reading of the
fourth quarter of 2023, reflective of the volatile nature of the
current auto demand environment.
"March sales volume will be relatively
positive, rising to over 1.4 million units," said Hopson.
"With inventory growing, incentives rising, and quarter-end
sales targets to be met, March sales volume will be relatively
positive, rising to over 1.4 million units for just the second time
in the past 34 months," said Chris
Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility.
"However, since the second quarter of 2023, the pace of sales has
been in a prolonged holding period, given the current purchase
environment facing auto consumers. High interest rates, slowly
receding vehicle prices and uncertain economic conditions continue
to push against any consistent upshift for demand levels."
Regarding inventory trends, Matt
Trommer, associate director of Market Reporting at S&P
Global Mobility said, "At the beginning of March, available dealer
advertised inventories were up to 2.62 million units, an increase
of 56% over last year and up 5% compared to the beginning of
February 2023. Model-year (MY) 2024
vehicles represented 84% of that inventory, so pockets of MY2023
vehicles remain, setting up the potential for additional spring
clearance activity."
The S&P Global Mobility US auto outlook for 2024 reflects
sustained, but more moderate growth levels for light vehicle
sales. Production levels are expected to continue to develop,
especially early in the year as some automakers look to continue to
restock in wake of production shutdowns late in 2023 and decent
December 2023 sales volume.
"Advancing production levels set the stage for incentives and
inventory to continue to develop, potentially enticing new vehicle
buyers who remain on the sidelines due to higher interest rates,
but it will be a bumpy ride and month-to-month sales volatility is
likely," said Hopson. "S&P Global Mobility projects
calendar-year 2024 light vehicle sales volume of 15.96 million
units, a 3% increase from the 2023 tally."
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Light Vehicle
Sales
|
|
|
Mar 24
(Est)
|
Feb
24
|
Mar
23
|
Total Light
Vehicle
|
Units, NSA
|
1,469,600
|
1,247,516
|
1,374,992
|
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
15.8
|
15.8
|
14.9
|
Light Truck
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
12.8
|
12.7
|
11.9
|
Passenger
Car
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
3.0
|
3.1
|
3.0
|
Source: S&P Global
Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
|
|
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales
remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility
light vehicle sales forecast. In the immediate term, some
month-to-month volatility is anticipated. March BEV share is
expected to reach 8%, similar to the month prior reading as
automakers, dealers and consumers continue to digest the changes to
IRA Federal tax credits to begin
the new year. BEV share is expected to advance over the next
several periods, pending the roll outs of vehicles such as the
Chevrolet Equinox EV, Honda Prologue and Fiat 500e, all scheduled
for market introductions over the first half of 2024.
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights
derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to
anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise
helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers,
and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive
innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping
customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE:
SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit
ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global
capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our
offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations
navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow,
today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
Media Contact:
Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility