Trump Win Lifts Dollar Despite Fed-led Dip
11 Novembro 2024 - 5:17AM
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A historic win for former President Donald Trump in the U.S.
Presidential elections boosted the U.S. Dollar and lifted the
Dollar Index for the 6th week in a row. Despite the Fed's rate cut
weakening the greenback, the U.S. Dollar gained against the euro,
the British pound, the Swedish krona as well as the Swiss franc
during the week ended November 8. It however slipped against the
Australian Dollar, the Japanese yen and the Canadian dollar.
The Dollar Index or DXY added 0.69 percent and touched a
four-month high during the week ended November 8, amidst euphoria
that followed Trump's commanding electoral victory. The second rate
cut by the Fed as well as the signaling of future rate cuts however
capped gains for the Dollar Index.
The Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee in its monetary
policy review on Thursday unanimously decided to lower the target
range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage point to 4.5 to
4.75 percent. The FOMC, that seeks to achieve maximum employment
and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run
reiterated that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation
goals were roughly in balance.
The Dollar Index which was at 104.28 on November 1 rallied to
close at 105.00 on November 8. The week's trading range was
slightly wider, with a low of 103.37 recorded on Tuesday and a high
of 105.44 recorded on Wednesday.
The EUR/USD pair plunged more than a percent during the week
ended November 8 amidst concerns about the potential impact of
Trump administration's policies on Eurozone's exports, as well as
the collapse of Germany's coalition govt. The pair slipped to
1.0718 on Friday from 1.0834 a week earlier. The past week's high
of 1.0937 and low of 1.0681 were both recorded on Wednesday in the
aftermath of the election result announcement in the U.S.
The sterling edged down 0.04 percent during the week ended
November 8 that saw Bank of England deliver its second rate cut
since 2020. As widely expected, the Bank of England slashed rates
by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent from 5 percent. The GBP/USD pair
declined to 1.2921 on November 8 from 1.2926 a week earlier. The
week's high of 1.3047 and low of 1.2832 were both recorded on
Wednesday as markets digested Trump's resounding electoral
victory.
The hawkish pause by the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday
helped the Aussie record gains of more than 0.30 percent against
the U.S. Dollar during the week ended November 8. The RBA
maintained rates steady for an eighth meeting in a row as it awaits
more evidence that inflation would soon return to its preferred
target range. From the level of 0.6559 recorded on November 1, the
AUD/USD pair rose to 0.6580. The pair touched a high of 0.6687 on
Thursday and a low of 0.6510 on Wednesday.
The yen rallied amidst uncertainty over Bank of Japan's monetary
policy outlook and fears of regulatory intervention in the currency
market. Minutes of the recent meeting of the Bank of Japan released
on Tuesday showed policymakers split on the question of more rate
hikes. The USD/JPY slipped during the week ended November 8,
closing at 152.63 on Friday versus 152.98 on November 1. The pair
ranged between the low of 151.27 on Wednesday and the high of
154.71 on Thursday, the highest level since July.
At the onset of the new week, the 6-currency DXY has rallied to
105.53 as markets price in the potential impact of Donald Trump's
policies on taxation, inflation and the headroom available to the
Fed for further monetary easing. Crucial data including consumer
price inflation, producer price inflation and retail sales as well
as a speech by Jerome Powell are scheduled for the week.
The EUR/USD pair has declined to a more than four month low of
1.0650 amidst renewed tariff worries. The GBP/USD pair has
decreased to 1.2879. The AUD/USD pair is flat at 0.6580 amidst
disappointment over the extent of stimulus measures from China.
Amidst the yen's weakness, the USD/JPY pair has jumped to
153.84.