Bitcoin Unveiled Trail: Q4 Tumble, ETF Battles, Mt. Gox Drama, And Economic Shivers Await
31 Agosto 2023 - 7:00PM
NEWSBTC
In a recent legal win for Grayscale against the US Securities and
Exchange Commission (SEC), Bitcoin (BTC) soared to $27,000.
However, the bullish sentiment seems to have waned as the
cryptocurrency has retraced to $26,000. QCP Capital, a
cryptocurrency analysis firm, has provided valuable insights into
the implications of this ruling and the overall market outlook.
BTC’s Short-Term Challenges Persist According to QCP, while the
ruling is a positive outcome for the industry, the firm notes that
its near-term impact on spot prices is “inconsequential.” The
firm cautions against getting caught up in the short-term
“knee-jerk pump” in spot prices and volatility, suggesting it may
present an opportunity to fade such fluctuations. Related Reading:
Court Says Yes To Binance Request In Case Against SEC It is
important to note that the ruling does not equate to approval of
Grayscale’s application nor guarantees approval for the refilling
of GBTC. The SEC still holds the authority to reject the refilling
on new grounds. However, QCP Capital believes that the ruling
solidifies the likelihood of an eventual approval for a Bitcoin
spot exchange-traded Fund (ETF) while increasing the probability
that the SEC will defer the decision to the March 2023 final
deadline. What’s concerning, is that QCP Capital’s wave count
analysis, previously shared in their update two weeks ago, suggests
that a final push higher to conclude the B wave correction is
probable in the coming weeks. This, coupled with positive
developments in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector led by
companies like NVIDIA and recent strength in traditional proxies
such as Gold and Rates, creates a more favorable environment for
cryptocurrencies. Despite these positive factors, QCP Capital
anticipates a potential Q4 2023 start near the market lows. They
attribute this to fading optimism surrounding the spot ETF due to
SEC delays and a perceived lack of innovation within the
cryptocurrency sector compared to other technology sectors.
Additionally, the upcoming Mt. Gox payout is expected to exert
short-term bearish pressure on the market. However, QCP Capital
remains optimistic about a significant rally in Q1 of 2024. They
anticipate the likely approval of the ETF in March, coinciding with
the upcoming Bitcoin halving in April, and a potential US economic
slowdown in Q2. To capitalize on this outlook, the firm
suggests considering a topside end March 2024 option structure,
which offers limited loss and the potential for a substantial
payout if the bullish scenario unfolds. Bitcoin Faces Downside
Pressure According to Material Indicators, a prominent analysis
firm’s algorithmic models, called Trend Precognition, indicate a
downside trend on multiple timeframes for Bitcoin (BTC). The
Daily chart, which closes in less than 9 hours, the Weekly chart,
which closes in 3 days, and the Monthly chart, which closes in less
than 9 hours, all point towards a potential test of support
shortly. Related Reading: Dogecoin And Bitcoin Become Latest
Additions To Robinhood Wallet Per the firm’s analysis, the Weekly
signal would be invalidated if BTC’s price moves and holds below
the $25,350 level. However, if support holds above the lower low
(LL) at $24,750, it would provide a solid foundation for a
potential rally and a retest of resistance. Overall, both QCP
Capital and Material Indicators concur that the analysis points
towards continuing Bitcoin’s current downtrend in the short
term. Presently, Bitcoin is trading at $26,100, reflecting a
3% decline over the past 24 hours. The upcoming days will reveal
whether these projected scenarios materialize or if the
cryptocurrency manages to consolidate at its current level,
resulting in sideways price action. Featured image from iStock,
chart from TradingView.com
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