Signs Of Stabilizing Mkts Spur Hopes At Frankfurt Auto Show
11 Setembro 2009 - 10:42AM
Dow Jones News
Battered in recent months by the worst industry downturn since
World War II, automakers heading to the International Auto Show in
Frankfurt Monday are pinning their hopes on early signs that a slow
market recovery might be gaining traction.
"We expect the (Frankfurt show) to be a positive trigger for the
auto sector," said Commerzbank analyst Daniel Schwarz. "This
follows a frustrating Paris Motor Show in 2008, and a Geneva auto
show (in March) where it was unclear whether markets had already
hit the bottom, but vague hope that government incentive schemes
would provide some relief."
Schwarz added that premium automakers, in particular, were
expected to provide a more upbeat tone in Frankfurt.
Some analysts cautioned, however, that markets were suffering
from distorted dynamics following government-backed scrapping
incentives in many countries, with some manufacturers benefiting
from state aid to weather the storm.
Premium automakers received little support from these scrapping
incentives, which were rolled out in several major markets to
revive demand for new cars after sales came to a grinding halt amid
the economic downturn.
Analysts believe that BMW AG (BMW.XE) and Daimler AG's (DAI)
core Mercedes-Benz brand, the world's two largest luxury automakers
by sales, will be affected less by a downturn in sales once these
scrapping incentives expired.
"BMW is a high quality way to gain exposure to the potential we
see for positive U.S. market surprises," said Morgan Stanley
analyst Adam Jonas in a note to clients, when he upgraded the stock
to overweight on Tuesday.
BMW was hit hard by the U.S. market downturn as this was the
company's largest single market until recently. The magnitude of
any impact from the withdrawal of incentives, which mainly will
affect mass-market manufacturers such as Volkswagen AG (VOW.XE) and
Fiat SpA (F.MI), is expected to be in the spotlight during the
Frankfurt show, along with the latest trends in alternative
drivetrains and electric cars and plans for new alliances between
companies to share costs.
Driven by investments as part of several economic stimulus
packages around the globe, automakers have been ramping up efforts
in the field of green technologies, such as hydrogen-powered
vehicles or plug-in electric cars, despite some persistent
technological and financial obstacles.
Mercedes-Benz will exhibit a fuel-cell version of its compact
B-Class, powered by hydrogen. Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.TO) is
presenting an electric plug-in version of its Prius model. Its
Japanese rivals Honda Motor Co. (7267.TO), Nissan Motor Co.
(7201.TO) and Mitsubishi Motors Corp. (7211.TO) won't be present at
the show as they seek to cut costs.
The stand of General Motors Co.'s European Opel brand is set to
attract visitors' attention in Frankfurt as the company,
headquartered nearby in Ruesselsheim, presents the new-generation
of its best-selling Astra model just days after the sale of the
unit to Magna International Inc. (MGA) was clinched Thursday.
The success of the Astra is crucial to help Opel and its British
sister brand Vauxhall through the looming restructuring.
French automaker Renault SA (RNO.FR) is presenting a new version
of the Megan along with several electric concept vehicles. French
peer PSA Peugeot Citroen (UG.FR) is focusing on two new small cars,
the DS3 and the C3, as well as the sleek Peugeot RCZ sports
car.
Italian automaker Fiat SpA (F.MI) is presenting the revamped
Punto model as well as a cabrio version of its 500 model, while the
new-generation C-Max will be in spotlight at Ford Motor Co.
(F).
-By Christoph Rauwald, Dow Jones Newswires; +49 69 29 725 512;
christoph.rauwald@dowjones.com