Vale Do Rio Doce Nota 10!!!

48.06

TIPS' Yields Show Fed Has Lost Control of Inflation (Update1)

By Sandra Hernandez and Deborah Finestone

March 10 (Bloomberg) -- Bond investors have never been so sure that the Federal Reserve will lose control of inflation. They're so convinced that they're giving up yields just to buy debt securities that protect against rising consumer prices.

The yield on the five-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security due in 2012 has been negative since Feb. 29, ending last week at minus 0.16 percent. The notes, which were first sold in 1997, have never before traded below zero. Even so, firms from Deutsche Asset Management to Vanguard Group Inc., the second-biggest U.S. mutual fund company, say TIPS are a bargain.

For the first time in a generation, money managers must come to grips with a central bank that's more intent on spurring the economy than restraining price increases. With oil above $100 a barrel, gold approaching $1,000 an ounce and the dollar at a record low against the euro, TIPS show investors aren't convinced Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will be able to tame inflation once policy makers stop cutting interest rates.

``The way TIPS are trading now, investors believe headline inflation will stay lofty and are willing to give up the real yield for that,'' said Brian Brennan, a money manager who helps oversee $11 billion in fixed-income assets at T. Rowe Price Group Inc. based in Baltimore. Prices for the securities indicate ``a real concern of a recession and high headline inflation,'' he said.

Because TIPS pay a principal amount that rises in tandem with the consumer price index, buyers accept lower yields in a bet the inflation adjustment will make up the difference.

Volcker Fed

Investors typically determine what they are willing to receive in interest by deducting the rate of inflation expected over the life of the securities from the rate on a comparable Treasury. Investors can still earn money from TIPS with sub-zero rates because the principal rises with the CPI.

Five-year TIPS yielded 2.35 percentage points less than similar-maturity Treasuries as of 2:45 p.m. in Tokyo. The so- called breakeven rate has risen from a four-and-a-half-month low of 1.89 percent on Jan. 23, the day after policy makers cut their target lending rate by three-quarters of a point to 3.50 percent in an emergency move.

The last time investors were so worried about faster inflation amid slowing growth, Paul A. Volcker presided over a Fed that would raise rates as high as 20 percent to end the stagflation crisis of the 1970s, according to Seth Plunkett, a bond fund manager at American Century Investment Management in Mountain View, California. The firm manages $20 billion.

Fed Forecast

Inflation ``is going to be higher than the Fed's targeted area,'' said Plunkett, whose fund owns a greater percentage of TIPS than contained in the index he uses to measure performance.

In forecasts released last month, the Fed said it expects inflation to accelerate 2.1 percent to 2.4 percent this year, and 1.7 percent to 2 percent in 2009.

TIPS have returned 6.2 percent this year, compared with 3.7 percent from regular Treasuries, according to indexes compiled by Merrill Lynch & Co. Mutual funds that specialize in inflation-linked debt attracted a net $2.87 billion in January, boosting their assets to $47.6 billion, according the latest data available from Financial Research Corp. in Boston. In all of 2007, the funds added a net $3.54 billion.

``TIPS are a really good buy,'' said Bill Chepolis, a money manager who helps oversee $9 billion at Deutsche Asset Management in New York. He bought five-year TIPS in the last six months. ``They're cheap with the Fed continuing to emphasize growth over inflation and inflation continuing to come in higher.''

Too Expensive

Investors seeking a haven from credit-market losses have pushed yields on all Treasuries lower, including TIPS. Five-year nominal note yields have dropped 1.03 percentage points this year to 2.41 percent.

``It's crazy,'' said Richard Schlanger, a portfolio manager at Boston-based Pioneer Asset Management, which oversees $44 billion in fixed income. ``You're paying the government to buy five-year TIPS. People are hiding in Treasuries for liquidity's sake because of a lack of liquidity in other markets. Eventually this will pass.''

Record-low TIPS yields also reflect bets on surging commodities. Crude oil futures rose to $106.54 last week and are up 70 percent this year.

Growth in countries such as China and India mean that rising prices for goods including wheat, gold, and oil ``may be a permanent thing,'' said Paul Samuelson, the second recipient of the Nobel Prize in economics who helped popularize the term ``stagflation.'' ``This time it's primarily not made-in-America inflation.''

Resumed Sales

The Treasury stopped selling five-year TIPS between 1998 and 2003, and resumed auctions in October 2004. In addition to the current five-year security, seven other inflation-indexed notes with up to four years to maturity currently yield less than zero.

Should five-year TIPS continue to have negative yields when the Treasury holds its next sale April 22, federal rules state investors would receive a coupon of zero percent, said Stephen Meyerhardt, a Bureau of Public Debt spokesman in Washington.

``TIPS have performed really well for the right reasons and they will continue to perform well for the right reason,'' said Kenneth Volpert, a fund manager overseeing $14.7 billion in inflation-linked debt at Vanguard in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania.

To contact the reporters on this story: Sandra Hernandez in New York at shernandez4@bloomberg.net; Deborah Finestone in New York at dfinestone@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: March 10, 2008 01:49 EDT

Fgcb,


Isso mesmo. Quero que o ativo suba, mas enquando isso não ocorre vou lançando opções. Rsrsrs

48.01

IND FUT -0.72%
FUT DJ +0.30%

10/03 09:47 LEIA (CMA) Nr. 1317200068
(GER,MEC,INT)
MERCADO EUA: Bolsas podem abrir em alta, com especulação por corte de juros

São Paulo, 10 de março de 2008 - O mercado de ações norte-americano pode ter
uma abertura positiva nessa segunda-feira, com investidores na expectativa por
um novo corte de juros por parte do Federal Reserve, depois que Departamento do
Trabalho informou que foram eliminadas 63 mil vagas de emprego no país, em
fevereiro, aumentando os receios quanto a recessão no país.

Os índices futuros Nasdaq e S&P 500 operam próximos a estabilidade, com queda
de 0,04% e alta de 0,07%, respectivamente.

DP / Agência Leia

rs, rs, Vale vai a 49,20 hoje.

Dollar Gains Versus Euro; Trichet Expresses Concern About Move

By Mark Tannenbaum and Ye Xie

March 10 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar gained against the euro, rebounding from close to a record low, after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the central bank is concerned about excessive exchange-rate moves.

The dollar strengthened to $1.5335 per euro at 8:43 a.m. in New York, from $1.5355 at the end of last week, when it touched $1.5459, the weakest level since the European single currency's debut in 1999. The dollar traded at 102.29 yen, from 102.67 yen on March 7, when it slid to 101.43, the lowest since January 2000.

``We're concerned about excessive exchange-rate moves in the present circumstances,'' Trichet said after a meeting of central bankers from the Group of 10 industrialized nations in Basel, Switzerland today. ``Excessive volatility and disorderly movements in the exchange rates are undesirable for economic growth.''

The Dollar Index traded on ICE Futures in New York, which compares the currency to those of six trading partners, touched a record low of 72.46 on March 7.

The synthetic euro, which estimates the European currency's value before its inception, last week advanced to the strongest level since at least January 1989, when Bloomberg's data on the measure began. The euro has gained 17 percent against the dollar in the past year. The U.S. currency has lost 13 percent versus the yen.

`Extreme Attention'

``I have noted with extreme attention the statement of U.S. authorities reaffirming that the strong dollar is in the interest of the U.S. economy,'' Trichet said.

The dollar approached an eight-year low versus the yen earlier as traders bet the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by at least 75 basis points to avert a recession.

Futures indicated a 96 percent chance the Fed will cut its benchmark rate to 2.25 percent on March 18, which would leave it 175 basis points above the Bank of Japan's and 175 basis points below the ECB's.

``We are in a pervasive dollar bear market,'' said David Watt, a senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto. ``The Fed will do whatever they can to ensure the moderation is as benign as possible

47.90

LADEIRA ABAIXO DE NOVO

U.S. Stock-Index Futures Gain on Speculation Fed Will Cut Rates

By Eric Martin

March 10 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures advanced on speculation the Federal Reserve will accelerate interest-rate cuts to prop up the world's largest economy.

Citigroup Inc. and Caterpillar Inc. advanced after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the central bank may take a ``more aggressive stance'' following the fastest loss of American jobs in five years. McDonald's Corp. climbed after same-store sales surged 12 percent last month. Shares in Europe pared their declines. Futures pared gains after Blackstone Group LP, manager of the world's biggest leveraged-buyout fund, posted earnings that trailed analysts' estimates.

Standard & Poor's 500 Indexfutures expiring in March added 0.8 point to 1,293.6 at 8:50 a.m. in New York, paring a gain of 6.7 points. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures climbed 15 points to 11,906. Nasdaq-100 Index futures added 0.5 point to 1,709.25.

``The Fed is trying to get the market's attention that it is in fact doing something,'' Alan Gayle, who helps oversee $17 billion of equities at Trusco Capital Management in Richmond, Virginia, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ``So far the Fed's been easing and that's great. We think that's going to pay dividends down the road.''

Citigroup, the biggest U.S. bank by assets, added 0.6 percent to $21.03. Caterpillar, the world's largest maker of bulldozers and excavators, rose 0.3 percent to $70.08.

Fed Bets

Traders now see a 98 percent chance that the central bank cut the target for overnight loans between banks to 2.25 percent this month from the current 3 percent, according to futures on the Chicago Board of Trade. That's up from a 74 percent chance last week. They also now say it's possible the Fed may cut by as much a 1 percentage point, a possibility they hadn't expected one week ago.

While the likeliest outcome is that the Fed waits until its next scheduled meeting on March 18 to reduce borrowing costs, a half percentage point cut in the target for the overnight lending rate between banks today can't be ruled out, Goldman economists Edward McKelvey and Jan Hatzius wrote in a research note.

McDonald's climbed $2.23, or 4.3 percent, to $54.50. The world's largest restaurant company said Europe and Asia spurred the sales increase. U.S. same-store sales rose 8.3 percent, exceeding the 7.3 percent median analyst estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

Blackstone

Blackstone lost 23 cents to $14.35. The company posted a net loss of $170 million in the fourth quarter because of compensation costs tied to its initial public offering in June. Profit excluding compensation costs was 8 cents a share, falling short of the average estimate of 20 cents by seven analysts in a Bloomberg survey.

The S&P 500 last week fell to the lowest since 2006 after record home foreclosures and an unexpected drop in payrolls heightened concern the economy is in a recession.

The benchmark for American equities has retreated 12 percent this year on concern the collapse of subprime mortgages will snuff out earnings growth. Profits for S&P 500 companies are expected to shrink this quarter and next, according to analysts' estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

To contact the reporter on this story: Eric Martin in New York at emartin21@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: March 10, 2008 08:53 EDT

47.75

Citação: titancorp

Citação: robertao

Analistas apostando em corte do FED na terça que vem de 0,75% ! (Bloomberg)

Mas o pior é que os caras cortam e uma semana depois estamos na merda outra vez, com aquela boa e velha frase dos IGNORANTES "JÁ ESTAVA PRECIFICADO!" é brincadeira né... os gringos fazem merda e agente que se da mal!

Na ultima sexta so 6 economistas apostavam no 0,75 o resto em 0,5 de acordo com a Ag. Estado . Vamos acompanhar esta semana.

ih, melou,nao quer subir no leilao

segundona brava

subir não sobe mas cai que é uma beleza

LIXO DE ATIVO! LIXO DE ATIVO! LIXO DE ATIVO! LIXO DE ATIVO! LIXO DE ATIVO! LIXO DE ATIVO! LIXO DE ATIVO! LIXO DE ATIVO! LIXO DE ATIVO! LIXO DE ATIVO! LIXO DE ATIVO! LIXO DE ATIVO! LIXO DE ATIVO! LIXO DE ATIVO! LIXO DE ATIVO!

.

Dax de -1,5% para + 0,2!!!!!!!! Tem coelho na cartola. Europa azulando geral.

que horas dj abre, ainda 11:30

Citação: precavido

rs, rs, Vale vai a 49,20 hoje.

hahahahaha, boa! hahahaha