Industry Federation Finds German Companies Unprepared for British EU Exit
22 Junho 2016 - 1:00PM
Dow Jones News
By Christopher Alessi and William Wilkes
Most German companies are unprepared for a potential British
exit from the European Union, according to a leading German
industrial group.
Almost 70% of firms surveyed by the Federation of German
Industries, or BDI, "don't know how they would react to Brexit,"
said BDI Chief Executive Markus Kerber in a German radio interview
on Wednesday.
If Britons vote to leave the bloc in a referendum Thursday, the
implications could take months or years to become clear. For German
companies and others in the EU, the prospect is so unprecedented
that they lack a baseline from which to work.
"We haven't been able to make many contingency plans," Juergen
Maier, chief executive of UK operations for German industrial
conglomerate Siemens AG, said in an interview. "We don't have a
clue what actually might happen" regarding tariffs, regulations and
labor rules, he said.
Trade between Germany and the U.K. is vital to both countries.
Germany was the U.K's second-largest export market after the U.S,
according to Britain's national statistics agency. The U.K. was
Germany's third-largest export market last year, behind the U.S.
and France, according to the German Federal Statistical Office.
Alexander Moscho, the chief executive for U.K. and Ireland at
German pharmaceuticals and chemicals group Bayer AG, said in an
interview that a major concern for Bayer would be how new
regulations could affect licensing frameworks for medications,
potentially limiting patients' access to needed medicines in the
future.
"All of us need to exactly understand what it means" if Britons
vote to withdraw, he said.
Mr. Moscho said a big problems was lack of clarity on what kind
of relationship post-exit Britain would seek with the EU regarding
trade, commerce and the freedom of movement across borders. He
cited both Norway and Switzerland as different potential models of
European nations not in the EU that maintain strong ties with the
bloc.
Germany's chemical industry, which maintains a trade volume of
roughly EUR18.5 billion with the U.K., has vocally warned of
pitfalls in a Brexit.
The biggest risk facing the industry would be weaker British
demand for its chemicals, said Dr. Henrik Meincke, the chief
economist at the German Chemical Association, or VCI. "We expect
the U.K., in the case of a Brexit, to slip into recession," Dr.
Meincke said.
"I can't see any benefits for the U.K. or Germany if Brexit
happens," said the BDI's Mr. Kerber. Later Wednesday, he told the
BBC that in the event of a Brexit it would be "very, very foolish"
for the U.K. or EU to impose trade barriers.
Proponents of a British withdrawal from the EU immediately
seized on those comments as evidence that a Brexit would not harm
the U.K.'s economic ties with the EU.
"Of course EU countries will continue trading with us on a
tariff-free basis -- they would be damaging their own commercial
interests if they didn't," former London Mayor Boris Johnson said
Wednesday while campaigning for Brexit.
A BDI spokesman declined to comment on the reaction to Mr.
Kerber's comments. BDI's official position supports Britain
remaining in the EU.
Write to Christopher Alessi at christopher.alessi@wsj.com and
William Wilkes at william.wilkes@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 22, 2016 11:45 ET (15:45 GMT)
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