NEW
YORK, Oct. 16, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P
Global today published the latest edition of its Look
Forward research series, which identifies and assesses the
opportunities and challenges the next decade will bring for
emerging markets' economic growth in terms of energy transition,
supply chain integration and labor productivity.
Emerging Markets: A Decisive Decade
By 2035, emerging markets will play a crucial role in shaping
the global economy, contributing about 65% of global economic
growth. While supportive demographics, abundant natural resources,
evolving trade dynamics and technological innovations in energy and
manufacturing could propel their development, geopolitics, climate
change and limits to frictionless trade and globalization could add
complexities.
Key findings from Look Forward Emerging Markets: A
Decisive Decade include:
- Emerging markets will average 4.06% GDP growth through
2035, compared to 1.59% in advanced economies. This growth is
driven mainly by emerging markets in Asia including China, India,
Vietnam, and the Philippines.
- Our macro-level data on market potential, policy favorability,
institutional quality, logistics efficiency and resource
availability shows how Malaysia
positively stands out among its peers; Brazil, Indonesia and India are well positioned to grow.
- Progress in increasing income levels in emerging markets will
be uneven: by 2030, median GDP per capita in the largest emerging
markets will be less than a third (31%) of developed markets.
- Public debt is on the rise in most emerging sovereigns through
to 2030, as is their capacity to self-finance. Lower foreign
currency debt, improved external positions, higher reserve buffers
and increased monetary policy effectiveness signal that most
emerging markets are less vulnerable to global financial shocks
than in previous decades.
- Emerging markets must compete with cheap labor from frontier
economies and increased mechanization in developed economies to
continue their supply chain-led growth; investing in skills and
manufacturing automation is key.
- Emerging markets have a unique decarbonization path,
influenced by policies and market priorities shaping renewable
investment models. Rising electricity demand, abundant resources,
and decreasing technology costs will drive a transition towards
renewable energies. By 2040, these markets are set to develop
nearly 6,000 gigawatts of clean energy projects, requiring over
US$5 trillion in investments.
"In the coming decade, emerging markets are strategically
positioned to drive global economic growth through the expansion of
their domestic markets and to benefit from the reconfiguration of
supply chains, trade and investment," said Yann Le Pallec,
Head of Global Ratings Services, S&P Global Ratings.
"This edition of our Look Forward Journal draws on
the deep expertise across our enterprise to examine the biggest
themes shaping these vibrant economies and help our customers
navigate the complexities of emerging markets with confidence."
Access the full report here - Look Forward:
Emerging Markets — A Decisive Decade | S&P Global
(spglobal.com)
This is the latest in the Look
Forward research series from the S&P Global Research
Council. For more information about S&P Global Research
Council, please
visit: https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/featured/research-council
Media Contact:
May Kek
May.kek@spglobal.com
Tel: +65 93737164
About S&P Global
S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI)
provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses
and individuals with the right data, expertise and connected
technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From
helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them
through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock
new opportunities, solve challenges and accelerate progress for the
world. We are widely sought after by many of the world's leading
organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and
workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive
markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world's
leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today.
View original content to download
multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sp-global-emerging-markets-set-to-drive-global-economic-growth-in-the-next-decade-302278029.html
SOURCE S&P Global