CPI Uptick, Fed Hints Boost Dollar Again
18 Novembro 2024 - 5:14AM
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The U.S. dollar rallied against major currencies during the week
ended November 15 amidst an expected uptick in consumer price
inflation in the U.S. as well as hints from Jerome Powell that the
Fed was in no hurry to cut rates.
The Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. Dollar's strength
against a basket of 6 currencies jumped 1.61 percent during the
week ended November 15, recording the seventh straight week of
gains. The Index had added 0.69 percent during the week ended
November 8, around 0.74 percent during the week ended October 25
and close to 0.58 percent during the week ended October 18.
Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on
Wednesday showed annual headline inflation rising as expected to
2.6 percent in October. The level increased from 2.4 percent in
September which was the lowest reading since February 2021. An
uptick was recorded in headline CPI after a gap of seven months.
The core component however remained steady at 3.3 percent. The
month-on-month inflation remained steady at 0.2 percent and core
portion thereof was steady at 0.3 percent matching
expectations.
Producer price inflation update for October released on Thursday
showed an uptick to 0.2 percent from 0.1 percent, matching market
expectations.
Also, data released on Thursday showed the number of people
claiming unemployment benefits in the U.S. unexpectedly decreasing
to 217 thousand in the week ended November 9 whereas markets had
expected it to edge up to 223 thousand from 221 thousand in the
previous week.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday remarked that
the economy was not sending any signals that needed the Fed to be
in a hurry to lower rates. Acknowledging the strength of the
economy, he said it gave the Fed the ability to approach decisions
carefully. He also reiterated that inflation has eased
substantially from its peak and was on a sustainable path to the
goal of 2 percent. He also placed on record that the labor market
has cooled to the point where it was no longer a source of
significant inflationary pressures.
Data released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Friday showed
month-on-month Retail Sales in the U.S. rising 0.4 percent in
October versus market expectation of a rise of 0.3 percent. As per
upwardly revised data, retail sales had grown 0.8 percent in
September.
The Fed Chair's comments sobered rate cut expectations, and the
CME FedWatch tool showed the likelihood of a 25-basis point Fed
rate cut in December declining to 61.9 percent on Friday from 65.3
percent on Monday. Expectations of a status quo meanwhile increased
to 38.1 percent from 34.7 percent on Monday.
The DXY touched a weekly low of 104.93 on Monday and climbed to
a one-year high of 107.06 on Thursday, before slipping and
eventually closing at 106.69 on Friday. The Index was at 105.00 a
week before.
The euro tumbled against the U.S. Dollar during the week ended
November 15 amidst the dollar's Fed-led strength and lingering
worries of a protectionist U.S. trade policy. The EUR/USD pair
declined to 1.0541 on November 15, from 1.0718 a week earlier,
recording a decrease of 1.65 percent. The pair ranged between the
high of 1.0727 recorded on Monday and the one-year low of 1.0496
touched on Thursday. Sentiment was also swayed by minutes of the
latest monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank
released on Thursday. The discussions inter alia revealed the
members acknowledging that the disinflationary process was well on
track.
The U.S. Dollar surged against the British pound also during the
week ended November 15 amidst a higher-than-expected increase in
the unemployment rate in the U.K. that renewed hopes of rate cuts
by the Bank of England. The GBP/USD pair which had closed at 1.2921
on November 8, tumbled 2.35 percent to 1.2617 by November 15. The
pair ranged between Monday's high of 1.2926 and Friday's low of
1.2594. Data released on Friday showed U.K.'s third quarter GDP
expanding 0.1 percent on quarter below 0.5 percent in the second
quarter and forecasts of 0.2 percent. The smallest growth rate in
three quarters also boosted rate cut hopes, weakening the
sterling.
The Australian Dollar too plunged 1.81 percent against the U.S.
Dollar during the week ended November 15, amidst toned down Fed
rate cut expectations and weak Chinese economic data. The mixed
employment data that cast uncertainty on the Reserve Bank of
Australia's potential rate cut trajectory also shaped the
currency's movements. The AUD/USD pair which had closed at 0.6580
on November 8 climbed to a high of 0.6598 on Monday before dropping
to 0.6439 on Thursday. The pair finally closed at 0.6461 on
Friday.
The past week also saw the Japanese yen incur losses against the
U.S. Dollar. The USD/JPY pair which was at 152.63 on November 8
climbed to 154.34 in a week's time. The pair had touched a low of
152.62 on Monday and a multi-month high of 156.74 on Friday. The
yen's weakness came amidst a hawkish Fed and a sharp decline in GDP
that could limit the headroom available to the Bank of Japan to
tighten rates further. The Canadian dollar, the Swedish krona, and
the Swiss franc that constitute the Dollar Index alongside the
euro, British pound, and the Japanese yen also recorded losses of
more than a percent against the greenback. The dollar gained 1.45
percent against the franc, 1.36 percent against the krona and 1.29
percent against the Canadian Dollar during the week ended November
15.
At the onset of the new week, the six-currency Dollar Index is
firm above the flatline at 106.72. The EUR/USD pair has increased
to 1.0549 amidst a pause in the Dollar's surge. The sterling has
also firmed up to $1.2627. Ahead of the release of the minutes of
the Reserve Bank of Australia, the AUD/USD pair has slipped to
0.6452. Amidst Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda desisting from
giving firm timing of the next rate hike, the yen has weakened
further, lifting the USD/JPY pair to 155.19.