U.S. index futures are largely flat in pre-market trading this
Monday, after a strong week on Wall Street, driven by the Federal
Reserve’s 50 basis point interest rate cut. The Dow hit a record
high above 42,000 points, with investors eyeing upcoming economic
data and Fed speeches this week.
At 5:23 AM, Dow Jones futures (DOWI:DJI) rose 6 points or 0.01%.
S&P 500 futures gained 0.08%, and Nasdaq-100 futures advanced
0.15%. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 3.745%.
In commodities, oil prices rose on concerns about Middle Eastern
conflict potentially disrupting supply. Hezbollah and Israel
exchanged fire on Sunday following intense bombings. Hezbollah
launched rockets at northern Israel, while communication devices
linked to the group were reportedly destroyed by Israel, which has
not confirmed responsibility. Additionally, the recent U.S.
interest rate cuts are fueling expectations of higher demand.
West Texas Intermediate crude for November rose 0.17% to $71.12
per barrel, while Brent for November increased 0.07% to $74.54 per
barrel.
Gold (PM:XAUUSD) is down -0.2% at $2,617.90, after hitting a
record high of $2,631.17 per ounce, spurred by the Federal
Reserve’s rate cuts. Despite strong performance, analysts warned of
potential overbought signals in the market.
On today’s U.S. economic agenda, at 8:00 AM, Atlanta Fed
President Raphael Bostic will speak. At 09:45 AM, preliminary
September PMIs will be released: the services PMI is expected at
55.4, and the manufacturing PMI at 48.4. At 10:15 AM, Chicago Fed’s
Austan Goolsbee will speak, followed by Minneapolis Fed’s Neel
Kashkari at 1:00 PM.
In Asia-Pacific, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.69%, closing
at 8,152.9. In South Korea, the Kospi rose 0.33%, and the Kosdaq
0.91%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dipped 0.2% in the final hour of
trading, while China’s CSI 300 rose 0.37%. Taiwan’s index closed up
0.57%.
In India, economic activity grew at its slowest pace in 2024,
with declines in the services and manufacturing sectors, according
to an HSBC survey. The manufacturing PMI dropped to 56.7 (from
57.5), and services PMI to 58.9 (from 60.9). The composite PMI fell
to 59.3 (from 60.7), still indicating expansion. Nonetheless, the
central bank forecasts robust growth above 7% by March 2025.
In China, the youth unemployment rate reached 18.8% in August,
exceeding the July record. Beijing adjusted the methodology to
exclude students, but the rate remains 3.5 times higher than the
general urban unemployment rate of 5.3%. The government is trying
to ease the situation with subsidies and hiring incentives.
Despite calls for rate cuts, the People’s Bank of China kept its
key rates unchanged. To support banking liquidity, it injected
234.6 billion yuan into the system and reduced the 14-day reverse
repo rate to 1.85%, below the 1.95% set in February.
According to Bloomberg, China plans a rare economic briefing by
three financial regulators aimed at boosting growth. Authorities
seek to bolster confidence and demand amid weak economic data and
concerns about meeting the annual growth target of 5%.
Separately, the U.S. is considering banning the import and sale
of Chinese cars equipped with communication software or hardware
and autonomous driving systems.
Additionally, Morgan Stanley advised investors to reassess their
preference for Chinese stocks listed on the mainland versus those
traded abroad, citing reduced purchases by state funds and
expectations of yuan depreciation. The bank noted a diminishing
impetus for national stock selection and forecasted downward
revisions to earnings estimates for A-shares.
In Hong Kong, real estate market sales fell to their lowest
level in two months, with a 53% drop in deals in key housing
estates, even after local banks cut interest rates. Economic
pressure and uncertainty continue to deter buyers, especially from
mainland China.
In Australia, the government is facing resistance to reform the
central bank’s board, with the Greens demanding immediate rate cuts
in exchange for support. Treasurer Jim Chalmers proposed a dual
board, focusing on monetary policy and governance, but the deadlock
persists after the Liberal-National coalition withdrew its
support.
The Reserve Bank of Australia began its policy meeting, with
expectations to keep interest rates at 4.35%. Analysts await signs
of a possible shift in the bank’s hawkish stance, particularly
after the Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut, kicking off a loosening
cycle.
In Japan, markets were closed Monday due to a holiday. The Bank
of Japan kept its interest rate at 0.25% last Friday.
In Singapore, headline and core inflation rose more than
expected in August, hitting 2.2% and 2.7%, respectively,
year-on-year. The overall CPI exceeded the forecast of 2.15% but
was lower than July’s 2.4%, while core CPI surpassed expectations
of 2.6%.
European markets opened largely flat on Monday, with the Stoxx
600 index edging slightly higher. However, the market cooled after
PMI data in Germany and France showed further declines in business
activity, suggesting a technical recession in Germany.
In France, the PMI fell to 47.4, below the forecast of 50.6 and
August’s 53.1, marking an eight-month low. In Germany, the index
dropped to 47.2, lower than August’s 48.4, hitting a seven-month
low. The eurozone’s private sector economy contracted, with the PMI
falling to 48.9 in September, while analysts had expected the
figure to only marginally decrease to 50.5. The ECB may reconsider
rate cuts in light of the economic slowdown.
Among stocks, Commerzbank (TG:CBK) is down 3%
after the German government said it would not sell more shares,
signaling opposition to a takeover. Hugo Boss
(TG:BOSS) fell 4.8% after a downgrade by Bank of America, citing
weak Chinese demand. Rightmove (LSE:RMV) rose 2.2%
after rejecting a new acquisition offer.
U.S. stocks fell on Friday but recovered some losses to close
mixed. The Dow gained 0.09%, reaching a new record. The Nasdaq and
S&P 500 fell 0.36% and 0.19%, respectively. Despite the mixed
performance, the indices posted strong weekly gains.
Last week, the Dow rose 1.6%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500
advanced 1.5% and 1.4%. The transportation sector fell due to
FedEx (NYSE:FDX) shares, which dropped 15.2% in
reaction to its quarterly performance. Gold and hardware stocks
rose. Traders await new catalysts following the Fed’s rate cut.
On the quarterly earnings front, AAR Corp
(NYSE:AIR) and Red Cat Holdings (NASDAQ:RCAT) will
report their numbers after the market close.
Commerzbank (TG:CBK)
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