Bitcoin Options Traders See $80,000 BTC By November End, US Election Outcome Irrelevant
24 Outubro 2024 - 12:00AM
NEWSBTC
According to crypto options traders, Bitcoin (BTC) is primed to
break through its previous all-time high (ATH) regardless of who
wins the US presidential election in November. US Elections Results
Not Consequential As the US presidential elections inch closer, a
slight change in tone can be observed among crypto options traders
regarding its implications on the digital asset market. Related
Reading: Can Bitcoin Price Reach A New All-Time High? This Golden
Cross Suggests So Notably, options traders are increasingly betting
big on $80,000 BTC by the end of November, regardless of whether
Republican candidate Donald Trump or Democratic candidate Kamala
Harris wins the election. Commenting, David Lawant, head of
research at FalconX, a crypto brokerage firm, said: I believe the
market consensus is that Bitcoin is likely to perform well
regardless of the election outcome. Our analysis shows that options
activity surrounding the upcoming elections exhibits a notable
topside-heavy bias. Within crypto circles, the general belief is
that a Trump win would likely benefit the digital asset ecosystem.
At the same time, a Harris victory would likely continue the Biden
administration’s perceived hostile stance toward cryptocurrencies.
However, Harris has attempted to shift this perception among crypto
voters, as she recently promised to foster emerging technologies
like AI and digital assets through a supportive regulatory
framework. Besides the US elections, other factors, such as
interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and cooling
inflation, can be attributed to increased optimism toward a new ATH
for Bitcoin by the end of the year. To recollect, Bitcoin hit its
current ATH value of $73,797 in March 2024, largely buoyed by the
anticipated demand for the digital asset following the approval of
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) by the US Securities and
Exchange Commission (SEC). However, BTC dropped to $53,956 in
September due to rising interest rates, before the Fed announced a
rate cut. Since then, Bitcoin has rebounded strongly, trading just
above $66,000. Bitcoin Put To Call Ratio Trending Lower According
to data compiled by Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange by
reported trading volume, the put-to-call ratio is trending lower
toward the end of the year. Essentially, a lower put-to-call
ratio means that more traders are buying call options than put
options, indicating a strong belief that BTC will likely surge in
the coming days. Related Reading: Bitcoin Profitability Index Hits
202%: Is This Enough For A Top? Yev Feldman, co-founder at
SwapGlobal, an institutional-grade crypto options trading platform,
notes: We see traders buy calls near 68k and puts near 66k, in
other words, many continuously position and reposition for a
breakout for either end. There is limited reason to collapse
downwards after the election, so up makes more sense. Additionally,
for BTC call options expiring on November 29, open interest is
largely concentrated around $80,000, with $70,000 being the second
most favored strike price. For call options expiring on December
27, strike prices are between $80,000 and $100,000. Recent reports
suggest that retail interest in BTC has been on a gradual upward
trajectory, indicating that the market is in risk-on mode after
being range-bound for the majority of the year. Lawant concluded:
This indicates that investors are leveraging the options market
more as a tool for capturing potential upside rather than as a
hedge against downside risks. Concerns about a potential downside
persist due to heightened geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle
East and lingering doubts about Bitcoin’s halving earlier this
year. BTC trades at $66,696 at press time, down 0.7% in the past 24
hours. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
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