Negocie de forma mais inteligente, não mais difícil: Libere seu potencial com nosso conjunto de ferramentas e discussões ao vivo.
Csn, A Nova Sadia/Aracruz (CSNA3)ac0sta
14/11 20:27 LEIA (CMA) Nr. 1314500310 (GER,MEC,EMP,IND) CSN: OPERAÇÕES COM SWAPS CAUSARAM PERDAS DE R$ 1,3 BI NO 3T08 Aguarde mais informações 14/11 20:22 LEIA (CMA) Nr. 1314500305 (GER,MEC,EMP,IND) CSN: LUCRO LIQUIDO CAI 94,3% NO 3T08, PARA R$ 40 MI Aguarde mais informações A coisa vai feder... |
Parece que você não está logado. Clique no botão abaixo para se logar e ver seu histórico recente.
Suporte: (11) 4950 5808 | suporte@advfn.com.br
Ao acessar os serviços da ADVFN você estará de acordo com os Termos e Condições
Cadastrar com e-mail
Já possui uma conta? Entrar
Não possui uma conta? Registrar
Ao me registrar, confirmo que li, entendi e concordo com os Termos e Condições da ADVFN e que sou um investidor privado.
Recursos principais
Premium
Comentários
201 de 241
80758
26021 02/09/2007Mas foi exatamente o que vc fwez com aquela infeliz mensagem....depois do ocorrido é complicado e mostrou quase nada entender do "babado"
202 de 241
80758
26021 02/09/2007Em crises e ainda mais fortíssimas como essas, os gráficos não valem de QUASE nada....
Use os fundamentos pra essa decisão, porém creio que tenha muitas melhores empresas para você vender...
Peitar essa empresa na venda é mais arriscadoa meu ver..
sidbarbosa1970@yahoo.com.br (email)
203 de 241
ac0sta
1493 04/09/2006Mas segue o jogo e ela realmente não fez o estrago que acreditei que fizesse!!! Foi só uma marolinha...
204 de 241
Quest5
892 19/10/2007Se virar cocô ainda pode servir de adubo ! O Problema é que tem umas virando peido ! Dai foi !!!
205 de 241
famcos
196 01/11/2008Companhia Siderurgica Nacional's SID third quarter results were moderately affected by slowing economic demand and softening steel prices. Steel shipment registered a 5% quarter-over-quarter decline, with export volume declining by as much as 30%. Average selling prices for the quarter posted a 20% gain over the second quarter, aided by strong steel prices for the majority of the current quarter. Overall, sales grew by 13% from the second quarter, with steel sales up by 15%, iron ore sales up by 40%, and other sales declining by 22%.
To date, Brazilian domestic steel prices are still higher than international prices, and we don't expect exports to pick up soon. CSN's steel shipment decline appeared to be less than other major steelmakers in the world, as Brazil's domestic steel demand hadn't fallen during the third quarter. We expect steel shipment to be weaker going into the fourth quarter. However, the company continues to be bullish about iron ore shipment growth and is expanding its iron ore operations quickly. CSN can earn roughly 40% operating margins on iron ore at current prices. This makes investments in iron ore projects highly lucrative. The company expects to increase iron ore shipments by 75% in 2009, doubling by 2012. Given that the world's largest iron ore miner Vale RIO also continues to invest in expanding iron ore projects, we believe iron ore prices could face more downward pressure in 2009.
CSN's operating profits were helped by high prices and contained costs for the most of the third quarter. Nevertheless, higher coal and coke prices increased the company's production costs. The company also reported an 8% increase in compensation costs. We think the decline in steel prices in the fourth quarter will hurt profitability, but given CSN's low-cost operations stemming primarily from captive iron ore, it would be hard for the company to lose money in its operations. Besides, CSN's planned iron ore projects will earn higher margins than the steel operations. CSN's net results were heavily impacted by a BRL 1.9 billion ($830 million at prevailing exchange rate) accounting loss from its total return swap transaction. The final loss on this derivative transaction has yet to be determined upon the contract's expiry by July of 2009. We dislike the fact that management entered into such speculative transactions.
During the quarter, CSN also negotiated the sale of 40% stake in its mining asset Nacional Minerios S.A. (NAMISA) to a consortium of Japanese and South Korean steel companies for $3.12 billion. The mine is projected to produce 18 million tons of iron ore per year starting in 2009 and over 38 million tons per year from 2013. The transaction indicates that iron-ore-scarce Asian nations' interest in securing upstream ore resources continue to be strong despite the economic slowdown.
Thesis 10-14-2008
Companhia Siderurgica Nacional is one of the luckiest steelmakers in the world, with 1.6 billion tons of iron ore reserve, proprietary infrastructure, and a low-cost workforce. However, aggressive financial management has tarnished the steelmaker's results recently, as the firm lost $850 million from an equity swap transaction betting on the timely rebound of its own stock. This highly risky transaction lost 80% of what the firm made in the first half of this year under record steel prices. Hopefully management has learned a lesson, albeit at a huge cost to shareholders.
As a leader in the Brazilian flat-rolled steel market, CSN enjoys 49% and 99% market share in galvanized steel and tin mill steel, respectively, which are relatively high-margin products. CSN has historically sold 35% of its products to overseas markets. However, as domestic demand is growing, the company is planning to rein in exports and sell more products within Brazil where it can realize higher margins.
In addition to healthy market demand and favorable product mix, CSN also garners raw-material supply and infrastructure advantages. The company's proprietary iron ore mines produce high-grade iron ore with 60% iron content. The mines can satisfy CSN's internal iron ore consumption with just half of its annual output. The company exports the remaining half of its iron ore output to Asian markets. As iron ore prices have gone through the roof in recent years, CSN is reaping the benefit as the higher prices almost entirely fall to the bottom line. Furthermore, CSN owns the operating rights of the railway and several ports, thus enabling the firm to transport iron ore to its plants cheaply and ship its ore and steel products efficiently. These factors, coupled with CSN's advantageous location close to Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, greatly reduce the firm's transportation costs. As a result, CSN has been posting operating margins north of 30%, while the most profitable United States steelmakers could only register margins in the high teens.
On the industry level, Brazil's steel industry has become consolidated, with CSN one of just a few heavyweights. In 2005, legacy Arcelor consolidated its stakes in the third- and sixth-largest Brazilian steelmakers, while the fourth- and fifth-largest domestic producers merged to form one company. Following these consolidations, the largest handful of steelmakers now produce roughly 90% of total steel output. The industry is seeing good price discipline and therefore better profitability.
CSN's American depository shares have enjoyed a foreign exchange tail wind in the recent past, as the Brazilian real appreciated significantly against the U.S. dollar since 2004. In 2007 alone, CSN's Brazil-listed shares went up by 157%, while the ADSs appreciated by 216%. However, recent reversal of the dollar/real trend put a dent on CSN's performance. Currency fluctuations add another layer of volatility for ADS shareholders.
Valuation
We are reducing our fair value estimate for CSN to $15 per ADR from $21. The Brazilian real has depreciated significantly against the dollar over the past few weeks. We have updated our model with the Brazilian real/U.S. dollar exchange rate. Meanwhile, we also reduced revenue projections as the Brazilian economy began to be affected by the woes in the developed countries. In our valuation model, we expect a compounded annual sales growth rate of 4% from 2007 to 2015. We think that growth will be driven by an expected increase in iron ore sales. We expect operating profit to take a dip in 2009 and 2010. Over the longer term, we expect operating margins to stabilize at 31%. Our capital expenditure assumption is $1.2 billion for 2008, which normalizes at 10% of sales over the long run. Given the fluctuations in the Brazilian exchange rate, we have raised our weighted average cost of capital from 10.2% to 11.5%. After factoring in these changes, we have reinstated our very high uncertainty rating on the stock.
Risk
In addition to the cyclicality of the steel industry, investing in CSN's ADSs involve additional uncertainties related to currency exchange rates and the economic environment and government policies of Brazil.
See Previous Analyst Reports
Close Competitors TTM Sales $Mil Market Cap $Mil
Companhia Siderurgica Nacional 6,951 7,962
* Gerdau SA 20,364 16,690
* Posco 32,890 15,979
* United States Steel Corporation 23,787 3,330
* Nucor Corp. 23,909 10,009
* Arcelor Mittal 67,265 19,491
* Morningstar Analyst Report Available | Compare These Stocks
Data as of 06-30-08
Strategy
CSN aims to maintain its position as one of the lowest-cost steel producers in the world. Rather than pursuing acquisitions haphazardly, CSN has focused on optimizing its mine, railway, and port assets by additional investments in a bid to solidify its high profitability. In addition, CSN pursues global expansion by acquiring or constructing steel operations or distribution centers outside of Brazil that can further process its low-cost semifinished products (slabs) and improve its distribution in overseas markets.
Management & Stewardship
CSN is controlled by the Brazilian tycoon Benjamin Steinbruch. He serves as both CEO and chairman of the board of the company, and the Steinbruch family owns 43% of CSN after the firm went through privatization in 1993. Not surprisingly, CSN has a few related-party transactions with other Steinbruch family-controlled entities, such as the bank Banco Fibra. But despite these misgivings, the operating performance of CSN's steel business is arguably quite good. Meanwhile, there are certain restrictions for foreign owners of Brazilian stocks, such as limited voting rights and pre-emptive purchase rights. Brazilian corporate law requires companies to pay out at least 25% of net profits as annual dividends. Due to strong profitability, holders of the ADSs can reasonably expect a steady stream of dividend income in the foreseeable future, barring any risky financial transactions by management.
Profile
CSN is the second-largest integrated steel producer in Brazil. In 2007 the company produced 5.3 million tons of crude steel, roughly 16% of Brazilian's total crude steel output. Established in 1941 as a state-owned enterprise, the company was privatized in 1993 and controlled by the Steinbruch family. CSN mainly produces flat steel products for the automotive, home appliances, packaging, and construction industries.
Growth
Growth of CSN's steel products comes from both export and domestic markets. China and India's urbanization processes have created tremendous demand for steel, which drove steel prices to record high levels and attracted steel exports from Brazil. Brazil's own growth also boosted steel consumption in the recent past. Whereas a global slowdown now appears unavoidable and steelmakers can experience a few years of sluggish growth, we think the long-term story of growing steel demand spurred on by the urbanization of the developing nations remains unchanged and should benefit CSN over the long run.
Profitability
CSN's low-cost steelmaking operations are immensely profitable, registering EBIT margins in the 30%-40% range. Equally impressive is the firm's return on invested capital, averaging 40% during the last five years.
Financial Health
Helped by buoyant steel demand, CSN generates a healthy amount of free cash flow every year. The company stood at a debt/capital ratio of 54% as of the end of 2007. At an interest coverage ratio of 15 times, we are not concerned about CSN's balance sheet.
206 de 241
famcos
196 01/11/2008www.morningstar.com
eles estao oferecendo acesso gratis por alguns dias.
Vale apena confirir.....!!!
Morningstar's editorial policies prohibit analysts from owning stocks they cover. Find out more about Morningstar's editorial policies here.
Morningstar Ratings and Morningstar Risk are updated daily. Legal Information.
207 de 241
famcos
196 01/11/2008ac0sta,
estavamos encarteirando mais. Dia muito agitado.
Os futuros ja estao despencando....
Eu estou comecando a investir em areas de alto risco REITs e Shipping.
NYSE symbol : PLD (Prologis) EXM (Exel Maritime)
208 de 241
famcos
196 01/11/2008******Bulls Say********
->An integrated cost structure and access to cheap labor and raw materials make CSN one of the lowest-cost steel producers in the world.
->CSN enjoys dominant share in the Brazilian flat-rolled steel market. The company has 98% of the tin product market and 42% of the galvanized steel market.
->Despite a near-term slowdown, CSN should benefit from the long-term story of the urbanization of the developing nations and the ensuing demand for steel.
********Bears Say*********
->CSN is exposed to the instability of the Brazilian economy, currency, and political system. The strength of the real versus the dollar and the fundamentals of the Brazilian economy can affect both the financial performance of the company and the performance of its stock.
->Steel is a cyclical, volatile commodity that often endures periods of overcapacity and depressed pricing.
->The company is exposed to fluctuations in the price of coal and coke and may not be able to pass these costs on to customers.
->CSN lacks the corporate governance that is required by law in the U.S. Its management also lacks a track record of performing sound fiduciary duties.
->An accident in 2006 resulted in operating disruptions, and safety can be an issue at this firm involved in heavy industries. (hic.) (esses gringos??!!)
209 de 241
haramoto
30832 21/04/2008210 de 241
med1na
5929 07/05/2007Imprimir
Fonte
Publicidade
Mais Lidas
Avaliadas
Dia Semana Mês
A história da especulação: ...
Projeções da CSN agradam e mitigam ...
Crise financeira evidencia desgaste do mercado de ...
Atenta aos resultados trimestrais, Gradual lista ...
Em caso de recuperação da bolsa, ...
CSN: apesar da cautela, balanço agrada analistas, que sugerem compra às ações
Por: Equipe InfoMoney
19/11/08 - 17h00
InfoMoney
SÃO PAULO - Devido ao crescimento das despesas financeiras, o lucro líquido da CSN (CSNA3) entre julho e setembro deste ano apresentou expressiva queda de 94,3% na base trimestral. Todavia, apesar do tom cauteloso, os analistas receberam de maneira favorável os resultados.
O banco de investimentos Credit Suisse, por exemplo, afirmou que a siderúrgica continua sendo seu player preferido na indústria do aço. "Esperamos que o negócio com a Namisa seja concluído em breve, colocando a CSN em uma situação financeira extremamente confortável".
Assim, os analistas reiteraram a recomendação outperform - previsão de desempenho acima do índice de referência - para as ações da empresa, com preço-alvo estimado em R$ 30, o que representa um potencial de valorização de aproximadamente 35% sobre a cotação desta quarta-feira (19).
211 de 241
famcos
196 01/11/2008o DJUSST tambem esta caindo 6% e a csn esta segurando.
Quando esse mercado estabilizar, acho que vai dar uma arrancada.
212 de 241
med1na
5929 07/05/2007Imprimir
Fonte
Publicidade
Mais Lidas
Avaliadas
Dia Semana Mês
A história da especulação: ...
Projeções da CSN agradam e mitigam ...
Crise financeira evidencia desgaste do mercado de ...
Dúvidas na hora de comprar ou vender? ...
Em caso de recuperação da bolsa, ...
Projeções da CSN agradam e mitigam má impressão de analistas com os resultados
Por: Equipe InfoMoney
18/11/08 - 21h53
InfoMoney
SÃO PAULO - O resultado operacional da CSN (CSNA3) decepcionou pelo forte recuo no lucro líquido. Mas a teleconferência dos resultados agradou. Ao comentar o balanço, a administração da siderúrgica reafirmou otimismo quanto à manutenção das unidades a pleno vapor até o final do ano.
Em meio a consecutivos anúncios de cortes nas produções ao redor do mundo, que incluem redução próxima de 30% na produção da gigante ArcelorMittal, apenas a confirmação de estabilidade nos contratos firmados alivia os investidores. A CSN foi além em sua teleconferência, disse acreditar em recorde de vendas de minério de ferro no quarto trimestre.
Os analistas receberam bem as declarações. Para a equipe do Banif, as expectativas da companhia são mais otimistas que o modelo de projeções para a ação, já em recomendação de compra.
A impressão deixada para os analistas do Bradesco é de que a CSN está sentindo pouco impacto da crise. Ainda assim, a instituição acredita que a Usiminas continua como melhor opção no setor, vendo a CSN como "market perform" - na média do mercado.
Resultados ruins
Apesar da receita líquida e Ebitda apresentarem avanço no terceiro trimestre, o lucro líquido da CSN marcou retração de 96% no período. A companhia afirmou que o balanço "refletiu o aumento das despesas financeiras decorrentes dos efeitos da queda de cerca de US$ 23 do nosso ADR (American Depositary Receipt), o qual impactou de forma negativa o resultado financeiro da operação de Total Return Equity Swap - operação que tem por objetivo a troca de rentabilidade de ativos de taxa de juros contra a variação dos ADRs".
213 de 241
med1na
5929 07/05/2007214 de 241
med1na
5929 07/05/2007215 de 241
ac0sta
1493 04/09/2006Fechamento da ADR: 7,87 x Dólar 2,39 = 18,80!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
SIFÚUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU!!!! Quem é digno de pena nessa conjuntura é você, maluco...
Vai a 10 reais ainda esse ano!!! Trolha na ADR = trolha ainda maior no balanço!!!
216 de 241
wgnermaia
7795 21/03/2008Gráficos GRATUITOS na br.advfn.com
217 de 241
SuperTuba
819 22/10/2008Pode até chegar nos 15 reais, mas digo a você que daqui a 2 anos estará nos 100 reais!
218 de 241
famcos
196 01/11/2008Alguem ai entendido de AT, poderia comentar a ADR? SID
220 de 241
wgnermaia
7795 21/03/2008ADR da CSN disparou no fechamento do pregão, apos anuncio do novo presidente do FED no governo OBAMA.