U.S. index futures rose slightly in pre-market trading on Monday
as investors focused on the presidential election and the Federal
Reserve’s rate decision. Tuesday’s election is seen as a crucial
catalyst; a divided Congress would maintain the status quo, while a
unified victory could bring new spending and tax reform plans.
Additionally, the market is watching S&P 500 earnings reports,
where 70% of companies have exceeded expectations, and the upcoming
Fed meeting, with a 96% chance of a rate cut according to CME
Group’s FedWatch.
At 5:21 AM, Dow Jones futures (DOWI:DJI) were up 30 points, or
0.07%. S&P 500 futures gained 0.19%, and Nasdaq-100 futures
advanced 0.15%. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.297%.
In the commodities market, West Texas Intermediate crude for
December rose 2.83% to $71.46 per barrel, while Brent for January
rose 2.65% to $75.04 per barrel.
Oil prices were boosted after OPEC+ postponed its December
production increase to January, keeping supply tight. The group
will maintain its 2.2 million barrels per day cut, countering
expectations of a production increase. Analysts note OPEC+ appears
focused on supporting prices, while geopolitical tensions and
events like the U.S. elections and the Chinese legislative meeting
keep investors alert.
Brent and WTI fell about 4% and 3% last week due to U.S. record
production, but both contracts rose on Friday amid reports that
Iran could retaliate against Israel, as cited by Axios.
Copper (CCOM:COPPER), aluminum (CCOM:ALUMINUM), nickel, and iron
ore gained with the dollar weakening ahead of the U.S. elections
and expectations of new Chinese stimulus. A weaker dollar lowers
commodity prices, while investors await economic support measures
from the Chinese government.
In today’s U.S. economic calendar, the September factory orders
report is due at 10 AM. The median forecast points to a 0.5% drop,
a slowdown from the previous month’s -0.2%.
Asia-Pacific markets closed higher on Monday. China’s CSI 300
rose 1.41%, ending at 3,944.76. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng was up
0.27% at the final trading hour, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200
closed with a 0.56% gain. Taiwan rose 0.81%. Japanese markets were
closed for a holiday.
South Korean stocks gained, with the Kospi up 1.83% and the
Kosdaq rising 3.43%, following the opposition party’s support for
the government’s decision to drop the capital gains tax for retail
investors. The move aims to strengthen the local market and attract
domestic investors.
BYD (USOTC:BYDDY) increased production by
200,000 units from August to October and hired 200,000 employees.
In Q3, net profit grew 11.5%, and revenue rose 24%, reaching $28.24
billion, surpassing Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA).
This week, investors are focused on China’s parliamentary
meeting, with expected fiscal support announcements by Friday. On
Thursday, China’s October trade data will be released following
weak September results. In South Korea, October inflation data will
be released on Tuesday, projected to fall to 1.4% year-over-year.
Australia’s central bank will also decide on interest rates on
Tuesday, likely holding at 4.35%.
European markets are mixed, with notable gains in the automotive
sector, while technology declines.
Among major highlights, shares of Burberry
(LSE:BRBY) rose amid rumors that Moncler
(BIT:MONC) might make a buyout offer.
Volvo Car AB (TG:8JO1) reported a 3% global
sales increase in October, with strong sales of electrified models
in Europe, where sales rose 21%. In total, 48% of sales were
electric or hybrid models.
Wizz Air (LSE:WIZZ) reported an increase in
passengers and capacity in October, carrying 5.6 million people,
4.1% more than last year. Capacity increased by 3.7%, with a load
factor of 92.9%.
European leaders congratulated Maia Sandu on winning Moldova’s
presidential runoff, reinforcing the country’s pro-European
direction. Sandu defeated the pro-Russia candidate with 55.4% of
the vote, driven by diaspora support. The victory is celebrated as
a democratic advance and a step toward European integration.
On Friday, the U.S. market rebounded after a sharp sell-off on
Thursday, with the Nasdaq rising 0.8%, the Dow 0.7%, and the
S&P 500 0.4%. For the week, the Dow fell 0.2%, while the
S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively.
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and Amazon
(NASDAQ:AMZN) boosted the Nasdaq with gains of 7.8% and 6.2%,
respectively. Conversely, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) fell
despite strong results.
The jobs report showed a smaller-than-expected increase, fueling
optimism regarding interest rates. Nonfarm employment rose by just
12,000 in October, below the 113,000 forecast, with the
unemployment rate steady at 4.1%.
Millions of Americans will vote on Tuesday in one of the closest
presidential races. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in a virtual
tie, focusing on seven battleground states, including Pennsylvania,
which has a strong history of deciding elections. Beyond the
presidency, Congress’s renewal is also at stake, influencing the
balance of power. Vote counting may take days, especially in states
with significant early voting and no central counting
authority.
Harris holds a slight edge in some polls, such as ABC
News/Ipsos, which shows her leading 49%-46%, and the New York
Times/Siena poll, where she leads in five of seven battleground
states. In traditionally Republican Iowa, a Des Moines Register
poll shows Harris ahead, indicating gains among Midwestern
voters.
In quarterly reports, Constellation Energy
Corp. (NASDAQ:CEG), Marriott
International (NASDAQ:MAR), Berkshire
Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.B), DigitalOcean (NYSE:DOCN), Freshpet (NASDAQ:FRPT), YumChina (NYSE:YUMC), SelectQuote (NYSE:SLQT), Fidelity
National Information
Services (NYSE:FIS), Franklin
Templeton (NYSE:BEN)
and Zoetis (NYSE:ZTS) will report
earnings before the open.
After the close, reports are expected from
Palantir (NYSE:PLTR), Hims &
Hers Health (NYSE:HIMS), Cliffs Natural
Resources (NYSE:CLF), Wynn
Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN), NXP
Semiconductors (NASDAQ:NXPI), Lattice
Semiconductor (NASDAQ:LSCC), Astera
Labs (NASDAQ:ALAB), Navitas
Semiconductor (NASDAQ:NVTS), Progressive (NYSE:PGR)
and Teradata (NYSE:TDC), among
others.
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