U.S. index futures rose in Thursday’s
pre-market session following Donald Trump’s victory, which sent the
Dow Jones up over 1,500 points yesterday. Investors are watching
for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, with CME Group’s
Fed Watch tool showing a 100% probability of a rate cut. Corporate
earnings, jobless claims data, and wholesale inventories will also
be closely monitored today.
As of 5:26 AM ET, Dow Jones futures (DOWI:DJI) were up 72
points, or 0.16%. S&P 500 futures gained 0.16%, while
Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.21%. The 10-year Treasury yield was at
4.429%.
In commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude
for December fell 0.92% to $71.03 per barrel, and Brent for January
dropped 0.72% to $74.38 per barrel.
Oil prices declined due to a looming hurricane in the Gulf of
Mexico, a stronger dollar, and lower Chinese imports. Trump’s
election raised concerns about restrictions on Iranian and
Venezuelan oil, while the hurricane disrupted 17% of U.S. Gulf
production. Fluctuations were also influenced by Middle East
tensions and OPEC+ policy.
China’s October oil imports dropped to 44.7 million tons,
signaling weak demand. This figure was 2% lower than in September
and 9% down from last year.
Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol, forecasts global oil prices between
$70 and $80 per barrel by 2025. He noted that geopolitical
uncertainty, including potential sanctions on Iran under Trump’s
presidency, will impact supply. Citigroup also indicated that new
trade tariffs on China could harm growth.
In today’s U.S. economic agenda, initial jobless claims for the
week ending November 2 are due at 8:30 AM ET, with a forecast of
220,000, up from the previous 216,000. Preliminary Q3 productivity
is expected to remain at 2.5%.
At 10 AM ET, September’s wholesale inventory report is expected
to show a 0.1% drop, following a 0.1% increase the prior month. At
2:00 PM, the FOMC will announce its rate decision, followed by Fed
Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM. Finally, at 3:00
PM, September consumer credit data is anticipated, with an expected
increase to $14.0 billion from $8.9 billion.
In Asia-Pacific markets, China’s CSI 300 rose 3.02%, hitting a
one-month high as investors await further stimulus measures
following the legislature meeting. Despite concerns over potential
trade tensions under Trump’s presidency, stocks rebounded,
supported by positive export data.
Chinese exports surged 12.7% in October, the largest increase in
over two years, as factories ramped up production ahead of new U.S.
tariffs under Trump. However, imports fell 2.3%, reflecting weak
domestic demand, while the trade surplus rose to $95.27
billion.
Japan’s Topix gained 1% on robust corporate earnings and share
buybacks, with Toray Industries and Taisei
Corp. rising over 12%. However, the Nikkei 225 fell 0.43%
due to concerns over Trump’s tighter trade policies affecting
semiconductor stocks.
South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, while the Kosdaq fell
1.32%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.33%.
European markets rose this morning, boosted by Trump’s victory
and political instability in Germany. Most sectors were up except
for healthcare, retail, industrials, travel, leisure, and telecoms,
while major European companies’ earnings were released. Investors
are focused on the Fed’s and Bank of England’s monetary policy
decisions, with expected rate cuts.
In Germany, exports and industrial production dropped more than
expected in September, down 1.7% and 2.5%, respectively,
highlighting economic weaknesses. Additionally, Chancellor Olaf
Scholz dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner, ending the
three-party coalition and calling for a confidence vote in
Parliament on January 15.
The German 10-year bond yield surpassed its equivalent swap rate
for the first time, indicating increased debt sales. This
inversion, at its lowest since 2007, suggests expectations of more
debt in the market.
Commerzbank strategist Hauke Siemssen predicts that Lindner’s
departure, who opposed debt cap flexibility, has fueled market
expectations for even greater debt issuance.
In Norway, the Norges Bank held its rate at 4.5%, the highest
since 2008, citing a weak krone and high trade costs. This
contrasts with the Riksbank’s rate cut in Sweden, reflecting a
conservative stance as other G10 countries ease policies.
In corporate highlights, John Wood Group
(LSE:WG.) shares fell 43.8% after reporting lower adjusted profits
and weak Q3 revenue growth due to disappointing project
performance. Revenue was nearly $1.49 billion, with an 8% decline
in order book year-over-year.
Adyen (EU:ADYEN) shares fell 6.2% despite
increased Q3 sales. GN Store Nord (TG) performed well, with shares
rising over 10.6%.
Italy’s Banco BPM (BIT:BAMI), the country’s
third-largest bank, offered $1.7 billion to take full control of
Anima Holding (BIT:ANIM), boosting its shares.
Using its insurance unit, the bank reduces capital requirements,
leveraging favorable rules.
Swiss Re (TG:SR9) raised its U.S. liability
reserves to $2.4 billion in Q3, easing investor concerns about
adequacy. The company projects annual net income above $3
billion.
Mobico Group (LSE:MCG) announced it is on track
to meet its profit goal, driven by high passenger demand and
cost-cutting measures. Q3 revenue rose 12%, with significant gains
in Alsa and North America, though revenue fell in Germany and the
UK. Shares rose 5.1%.
Rolls-Royce (LSE:RR.) maintained its profit
growth forecast of at least 30% this year, driven by demand from
airlines, energy, and defense sectors, despite supply chain issues.
Shares fell 4.2%.
Daimler Truck (TG:DTG) reported €1.19 billion
Q3 profit, slightly above expectations, thanks to strong North
American performance despite European weakness. Shares are up
5.6%.
Air France-KLM (EU:AF) reported a
larger-than-expected Q3 operating loss of $1.27 billion, below
estimates. Olympic costs and high expenses weighed on results,
despite a 3.7% revenue increase. Shares are down 11.1%.
Wizz Air (LSE:WIZZ) posted a 33.2% lower
operating profit, with shares down 3.5%.
Telefónica (LSE:0A2Y) reaffirmed its financial
targets despite a loss in Peru. Shares fell 0.7%.
Sainsbury’s (LSE:SBRY) maintained its profit
growth forecast of up to 10% for the year, with H1 sales rising
3.7%, driven by strong food sales despite weak performance in other
products. Shares dropped 1.5%.
Delivery Hero (TG:DHER) expects annual gross
merchandise value (GMV) growth to reach the upper end of the 7%-9%
range after a 9% Q3 increase, totaling $13.12 billion. However, GMV
in Asia fell 6.6%. Shares rose 2.6%.
Howden Joinery Group (LSE:HWDN) shares fell
2.8% after reporting lower H2 revenue due to challenging market
conditions, now expecting pretax profit at the low end of
estimates. Revenue fell 0.1% year-over-year despite market share
gains. The company anticipates tough conditions next year and
estimates an additional £18 million in costs from insurance and
minimum wage increases.
On Wednesday, U.S. indices closed sharply higher following
Donald Trump’s presidential election win, fueled by expectations of
reduced regulation and tax cuts. The Dow gained 3.6%, the Nasdaq
3.0%, and the S&P 500 2.5%, led by financial and oil sectors.
Markets now await the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision,
with an anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut.
In quarterly reports, earnings from Vistra
Energy (NYSE:VST), Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), Barrick
Gold (NYSE:GOLD), Datadog (NASDAQ:DDOG), Halliburton (NYSE:HAL), GEO
Group (NYSE:GEO), Hershey (NYSE:HSY), Esperion (NASDAQ:ESPR), Medical
Properties Trust (NYSE:MPW)
and Cameco (NYSE:CCJ) are expected
before the market opens.
After the close, earnings from
DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG), Arista
Networks (NYSE:ANET), Block (NYSE:SQ), Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN), Unity (NYSE:U), The
Trade
Desk (NASDAQ:TTD), Affirm (NASDAQ:AFRM), Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB), Fortinet (NASDAQ:FTNT)
and Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) will be
released.
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