Bitcoin Options Traders Set Sights On $80,000 By November-End, Regardless Of US Election Outcome
23 Outubro 2024 - 2:30AM
NEWSBTC
As the US presidential election approaches, the crypto community is
buzzing with speculation regarding how the outcome will affect the
Bitcoin price. With just 15 days until the election between
former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris,
options traders are increasingly optimistic about a new all-time
high for Bitcoin, regardless of who wins the presidency. Traders
Favor Call Options Ahead Of US Election According to a recent
report from Bloomberg, options traders are placing significant bets
that Bitcoin will reach a record high of $80,000 by the end of
November. Notably, implied volatility for Bitcoin options,
particularly those expiring around the election day, remains
elevated. More traders are favoring call options, which give the
buyer the right to buy BTC at new highs. Related Reading: Ethereum
Bullish Breakout Confirmed – Top Analyst Predicts $3,400 Target
David Lawant, head of research at crypto prime broker FalconX,
commented, “I believe the market consensus is that Bitcoin is
likely to perform well regardless of the election outcome.” His
analysis indicates that options activity surrounding the upcoming
elections shows a distinct bias toward upside potential. The
political landscape features contrasting views regarding the
nascent cryptocurrency landscape. Trump, who has been a vocal
advocate for digital assets over the past months, is viewed by many
as a pro-crypto candidate, leading to the characterization of
Bitcoin as a “Trump trade.” On the other hand, Harris has
pledged to support a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, a
shift from the more stringent oversight seen during the Biden
administration, characterized by continuous enforcement actions and
lawsuits against key players of the sector. Per the report, in
addition to political factors, traders are also considering
non-political influences such as potential rate cuts by the Federal
Reserve (Fed) and ongoing inflation concerns, which contribute to a
generally optimistic sentiment. Data Reveals Strong Demand
For $80,000 Bitcoin Calls Data from Deribit, a crypto options
exchange, reveals a declining put-to-call ratio, indicating that
more traders are buying call options than puts as the year draws to
a close. Yev Feldman, co-founder of SwapGlobal, elaborated on the
current trading patterns seen among investors, stating: “We are
seeing traders buying calls near $68,000 and puts near $66,000,
suggesting that many are positioning for a breakout in either
direction.” Feldman further added that there’s limited reason
to expect a downward collapse post-election, making upward movement
seem more plausible for the leading crypto of the market. Related
Reading: Solana Eyes New All-Time High Of $370 After Cup And Handle
Breakout Open interest data also shows that call contracts set to
expire on November 29 are heavily concentrated around the $80,000
mark, with the second most popular strike price at $70,000.
For contracts expiring on December 27, interest is clustered around
$100,000 and $80,000, while the most sought-after strike price for
calls expiring on November 8 is $75,000. Interestingly, call
options are commanding higher premiums than their put counterparts,
according to the skew term structure, which reflects pricing
dynamics between these options. “This indicates that
investors are leveraging the options market more as a tool for
capturing potential upside rather than as a hedge against downside
risks,” Lawant explained. The researcher also pointed out
that opinions on non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies remain divided, with
less consensus on how these assets might perform under varying
electoral scenarios. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at
$67,370. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from
TradingView.com
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