Global M2 Tightens Grip On Bitcoin—What’s Next?
14 Março 2025 - 5:00PM
NEWSBTC
Bitcoin’s tight correlation with global M2 has returned to the
spotlight, suggesting that broader monetary conditions remain a key
force behind the cryptocurrency’s market trajectory. Recent price
action shows Bitcoin converging with M2’s downward drift—mirroring
roughly a 70-day lag. This cyclical movement highlights Bitcoin’s
ongoing responsiveness to fluctuations in liquidity, even as other
fundamental factors, like the newly announced US Strategic Bitcoin
Reserve (SBR), continue to capture headlines. Global M2 Correlation
And Bitcoin Market Inefficiency In his latest research note,
analyst Joe Consorti underscores that “Bitcoin’s directional
correlation with global M2 has tightened again,” indicating that
price remains heavily swayed by money supply trends. After a few
months of divergence—fueled in part by a strong US dollar—Bitcoin
fell to $78,000, coming within $8,000 of M2’s projected path. The
global M2 index has softened, partly reflecting the dollar’s robust
performance. Despite that drag, Bitcoin appears to be following the
general liquidity blueprint it has tracked throughout this cycle,
suggesting Bitcoin’s price still hinges on major macro forces like
central bank expansions and contractions. “While this relationship
isn’t a direct cause-and-effect mechanism, it continues to provide
a useful macro framework,” Consorti writes. He added: “The
takeaway? Bitcoin remains the ultimate monetary asset in a world
where money supply, balance sheet capacity, and credit are
perpetually expanding. As global money supply expands, bitcoin
tends to follow it, at least directionally. But this cycle is
seeing additional variables that make M2 a less reliable standalone
indicator, such as the US dollar being historically strong,
creating a drag on global M2 denominated in USD, and more accurate
measures of money supply and liquidity coming onto the scene.”
Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottom Confirmed? Data Shows 87.5% Chance
The Worst Is Over Although macro conditions are exerting familiar
pressure, the market’s reaction to the SBR announcement has been
perplexing. After the US President Donald Trump formally declared
plans to accumulate Bitcoin through a “budget-neutral” mechanism,
the price tumbled 8.5% in just under a week. Consorti described the
sell-off as “an irrational reaction highlighting major
inefficiencies in pricing Bitcoin’s geopolitical importance.”
Executive Order 14233 mandates Treasury and Commerce officials to
grow America’s BTC holdings—currently at 198,109 BTC—without new
taxpayer cost or congressional oversight. This is a stark contrast
to previous government-level adoptions, such as El Salvador’s legal
tender move, which coincided with a surge in Bitcoin’s price.
Consorti attributes the disparity to short-term profit taking and a
“sell-the-news” mentality, adding that “the magnitude of the
selloff indicates a complete failure to price in the long-term
implications.” Despite the SBR-related dip, Bitcoin’s technical
signals suggest a possible local bottom forming. The cryptocurrency
dipped to $77,000 before bouncing back, filling a low-volume gap in
the $76,000–$86,000 range. Buyers seized on the retracement,
creating two hammer candlesticks on the weekly chart. Related
Reading: Bitcoin Teeters On The Edge: Will This Pivot Hold Or
Collapse? Hammer candlesticks typically point to a reversal,
especially when they appear at cycle-defining support levels.
According to Consorti, “Historical precedent suggests that Bitcoin
forms these patterns at cycle turning points… The last time we saw
this exact price structure was during the tail end of Bitcoin’s
summer 2024 consolidation, two months before it surged from $57,000
to $108,000.” A notable trend amid these price fluctuations is
Bitcoin’s rising dominance, even during periods of market
contraction. ETH/BTC recently sank to 0.0227—its lowest since May
2020—indicating intensifying skepticism toward altcoins. Meanwhile,
institutional demand for Ethereum has likewise slumped, as
evidenced by a 56.8% drop in the asset under management (AUM) ratio
for Ethereum vs. Bitcoin. “This cycle belongs to Bitcoin, and all
future cycles will only further cement this reality,” Consorti
asserts. He suggests altcoins are fighting an uphill battle as
Bitcoin-centric narratives gain global traction. At press time, BTC
traded at $82,875. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from
TradingView.com
Sei (COIN:SEIUSD)
Gráfico Histórico do Ativo
De Fev 2025 até Mar 2025
Sei (COIN:SEIUSD)
Gráfico Histórico do Ativo
De Mar 2024 até Mar 2025